技术体制视角的中国技术领域比较优势演变特征分析
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摘要
本文利用1987-2015年国内和国外在国际专利分类(IPC)大类层面的发明专利申请数据,基于马尔可夫链方法实证分析了不同技术体制下我国技术领域比较优势的动态演变特征。结果表明:总体上,我国技术领域比较优势在连续两年为同一状态的"固化性"概率较高,呈现一定的"马太效应",而技术领域比较优势的"流动性"主要体现为相邻的两种状态之间。从技术体制视角看,在外国创新的独占性较低、国内外初始知识存量差距较小的技术领域,我国更可能由比较劣势转移到比较优势状态,且维持住已有的比较优势地位;在技术创新累积性较低、技术机会和技术轨道不确定性较高的技术领域,我国更可能突破已有比较优势被固化的陷阱,通过把握机会窗口实现技术比较优势的变迁。
Based on the IPC class level data of domestic and foreign invention patent application in 1987-2015,this paper uses Markov chains to investigate the evolutionary characteristics of Chinese technological comparative advantage from the perspective of technological regime. The results show that,on the whole,the persistence probability of Chinese technological comparative advantage in two consecutive years is much higher,showing a certain"Matthew effect",while the mobility of Chinese technological comparative advantage occurs mainly in the adjacent two states. From the perspective of technological regime,we find that in technology fields with lower appropriability of foreign innovation and smaller gap between initial foreign and domestic knowledge stock,China is more likely to move from comparative disadvantage to comparative advantage states,and maintain the existing comparative advantage at the same time. And in technology fields with lower cumulativeness of technological innovation,and higher technological opportunities and uncertainty of technological trajectory,China is more likely to avoid being locked in the comparative advantage trap,and seize the window of opportunity to change the states of technological comparative advantage.
Based on the IPC class level data of domestic and foreign invention patent application in 1987-2015,this paper uses Markov chains to investigate the evolutionary characteristics of Chinese technological comparative advantage from the perspective of technological regime. The results show that,on the whole,the persistence probability of Chinese technological comparative advantage in two consecutive years is much higher,showing a certain"Matthew effect",while the mobility of Chinese technological comparative advantage occurs mainly in the adjacent two states. From the perspective of technological regime,we find that in technology fields with lower appropriability of foreign innovation and smaller gap between initial foreign and domestic knowledge stock,China is more likely to move from comparative disadvantage to comparative advantage states,and maintain the existing comparative advantage at the same time. And in technology fields with lower cumulativeness of technological innovation,and higher technological opportunities and uncertainty of technological trajectory,China is more likely to avoid being locked in the comparative advantage trap,and seize the window of opportunity to change the states of technological comparative advantage.
引文
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[23]王磊,陈向东.在华电子行业的中外企业技术收敛特征研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2008,29(11):25-31
[24]杨利锋,陈凯华.中国电动汽车技术水平国际比较研究——基于跨国专利的视角[J].科研管理,2013,34(3):128-136
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[29] Kim J.,Lee C. Y. Technological Regimes and the Persistence of First-mover Advantages[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,2011,20(5):1305-1333
[30] Balassa B. Trade Liberalisation and“Revealed”Comparative Advantage[J]. The Manchester School,1965,33(2):99-123
[31] Laursen K. Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Slternatives as Measures of International Specialization[J]. Eurasian Business Review,2015,5(1):99-115
[32] Hidalgo C. A.,Klinger B.,Barabási A. L.,et al. The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations[J]. Science,2007,317(5837):482-487
[33] Prud’homme D. Dynamics of China’s Provincial-level Specialization in Strategic Emerging Industries[J]. Research Policy,2016,45(8):1586-1603
[34]孙玉涛.基于分布动态学的跨国创新俱乐部收敛研究[J].管理评论,2013,25(6):59-66
[35]潘雄锋,史晓辉.基于专利指标的中国区域创新趋同的时空演变特征分析[J].管理评论,2012,24(2):116-121
[36] Nelson R. R.,Winter S. G. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change[M]. Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,2009
[37] Malerba F.,Orsenigo L. Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation Are Technology-specific[J]. Research Policy,1996,25(3):451-478
[38] Breschi S.,Malerba F.,Orsenigo L. Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation[J]. The Economic Journal,2000,110(463):388-410
[39]吴晓波,黄娟.技术体制对FDI溢出效应的影响:基于中国制造业的计量分析[J].科研管理,2007,28(5):18-24
[40]杜健,吴晓波,黄娟.技术体制框架下FDI影响产业技术边缘化的研究——以中国手机行业为例[J].西安电子科技大学学报:社会科学版,2008,(1):1-8
[41]石俊国,郁培丽,向涛.破坏性创新技术体制与产业演化[J].科学学研究,2016,34(7):1096-1102
[42]王芳,赵兰香.产业技术属性对企业R&D投入决策的影响[J].科学学研究,2016,34(3):346-356
[43] Leten B.,Belderbos R.,Looy B. V. Entry and Technological Performance in New Technology Domains:Technological Opportunities,Technology Competition and Technological Relatedness[J]. Journal of Management Studies,2016,53(8):1257-1291
[44] Giachetti C.,Marchi G. Successive Changes in Leadership in the Worldwide Mobile Phone Industry:The Role of Windows of Opportunity and Firms’Competitive Action[J]. Research Policy,2017,46(2):352-364
[45] Kim J.,Lee C. Y. Technological Regimes and Firm Survival[J]. Research Policy,2016,45(1):232-243
[46] Henttonen K.,Hurmelinna-Laukkanen P.,Ritala P. Managing the Appropriability of R&D Collaboration[J]. R&D Management,2016,46(S1):145-158
[47]宋艳双,刘人境.知识阈值对组织学习绩效的影响研究[J].管理科学,2016,29(4):94-103
[48]唐启义. DPS数据处理系统:实验设计、统计分析及数据挖掘[M].北京:科学出版社,2007
[2] Tang M.,Hussler C. Betting on Indigenous Innovation or Relying on FDI:The Chinese Strategy for Catching-up[J]. Technology in Society,2011,33(1):23-35
[3] Hu A. G. Propensity to Patent,Competition and China’s Foreign Patenting Surge[J]. Research Policy,2010,39(7):985-993
[4] Lee K.,Gao X.,Li X. Industrial Catch-up in China:A Sectoral Systems of Innovation Perspective[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2017,10(1):59-76
[5]焦少飞,张炜,杨选良.技术体制,研发努力与创新绩效:来自中国制造业的证据[J].中国软科学,2010,(5):37-44
[6]简红江,刘仲林.中日发明专利技术领域分布比较[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2012,33(6):22-28
[7]张古鹏,王崇锋.保护性专利审查机制与中外企业的专利战略选择——基于专利授权和条件寿命期的视角[J].科研管理,2014,35(5):9-18
[8]张古鹏,陈向东.基于发明专利条件寿命期的中外企业专利战略比较研究[J].中国软科学,2012,(3):1-11
[9] Liu X.,Hodgkinson I. R.,Chuang F. M. Foreign Competition,Domestic Knowledge Base and Innovation Activities:Evidence from Chinese High-tech Industries[J]. Research Policy,2014,43(2):414-422
[10]张古鹏,陈向东.基于专利的中外新兴产业创新质量差异研究[J].科学学研究,2011,29(12):1813-1820
[11]宋河发,穆荣平,陈芳,等.基于中国发明专利数据的专利质量测度研究[J].科研管理,2014,35(11):68-76
[12]陈海秋,韩立岩.专利质量表征及其有效性:中国机械工具类专利案例研究[J].科研管理,2013,34(5):93-101
[13]邓洁,余翔,崔利刚.基于专利特征的国内外发明专利权稳定性比较研究[J].中国科技论坛,2014,(12):154-160
[14] Liegsalz J.,Wagner S. Patent Examination at the State Intellectual Property Office in China[J]. Research Policy,2013,42(2):552-563
[15] Wong C. Y.,Yap X. S. Mapping Technological Innovations through Patent Analysis:A Case Study of Foreign Multinationals and Indigenous Firms in China[J]. Scientometrics,2011,91(3):773-787
[16] Zheng L.,Lan X. A Tale of Two Cities:A Comparison of Patent-based Innovative Performance of Domestic and Multinational Companies in China[J]. Journal of International Commerce&Economics,2009,3(1):17-54
[17] Kang B.,Huo D.,Motohashi K. Comparison of Chinese and Korean Companies in ICT Global Standardization:Essential Patent Analysis[J]. Telecommunications Policy,2014,38(10):902-913
[18]俞文华.职务发明专利,比较优势和封锁动态——基于国家知识产权战略实施的视角[J].科学学研究,2010,28(4):515-522
[19]俞文华.发明专利,比较优势,授权差距——基于中国国内外发明专利授权量比较分析[J].中国软科学,2009,(6):19-32
[20]俞文华.企业发明专利,技术比较优势和外国专利控制——基于国家知识产权战略实施的视角[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010,31(3):39-44
[21]俞文华.面向全球市场的技术竞争:增长贡献,优势动态和结构趋同——基于WIPO的PCT申请统计分析[J].中国软科学,2012,(8):1-22
[22]官建成,王刚波.技术领域优势的国际比较研究[J].科学学研究,2008,26(1):90-97
[23]王磊,陈向东.在华电子行业的中外企业技术收敛特征研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2008,29(11):25-31
[24]杨利锋,陈凯华.中国电动汽车技术水平国际比较研究——基于跨国专利的视角[J].科研管理,2013,34(3):128-136
[25] Hinloopen J.,Marrewijk C. Dynamics of Chinese Comparative Advantage[R]. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2004-034/2,2004
[26]陆文聪,许为.中国落入“比较优势陷阱”了吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(5):20-36
[27] Park K. H.,Lee K. Linking the Technological Regime to the Technological Catch-up:Analyzing Korea and Taiwan Using the US Patent Data[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,2006,15(4):715-753
[28] Hu M. C.,Phillips F. Y.,Wu C. Y.,et al. The Influence of the Technological Regime on the Global Light-emitting Diode Industry:Lessons from Innovative Leaders and Latecomers[J]. Innovation:Management,Policy&Practice,2015,17(1):91-114
[29] Kim J.,Lee C. Y. Technological Regimes and the Persistence of First-mover Advantages[J]. Industrial and Corporate Change,2011,20(5):1305-1333
[30] Balassa B. Trade Liberalisation and“Revealed”Comparative Advantage[J]. The Manchester School,1965,33(2):99-123
[31] Laursen K. Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Slternatives as Measures of International Specialization[J]. Eurasian Business Review,2015,5(1):99-115
[32] Hidalgo C. A.,Klinger B.,Barabási A. L.,et al. The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations[J]. Science,2007,317(5837):482-487
[33] Prud’homme D. Dynamics of China’s Provincial-level Specialization in Strategic Emerging Industries[J]. Research Policy,2016,45(8):1586-1603
[34]孙玉涛.基于分布动态学的跨国创新俱乐部收敛研究[J].管理评论,2013,25(6):59-66
[35]潘雄锋,史晓辉.基于专利指标的中国区域创新趋同的时空演变特征分析[J].管理评论,2012,24(2):116-121
[36] Nelson R. R.,Winter S. G. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change[M]. Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,2009
[37] Malerba F.,Orsenigo L. Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation Are Technology-specific[J]. Research Policy,1996,25(3):451-478
[38] Breschi S.,Malerba F.,Orsenigo L. Technological Regimes and Schumpeterian Patterns of Innovation[J]. The Economic Journal,2000,110(463):388-410
[39]吴晓波,黄娟.技术体制对FDI溢出效应的影响:基于中国制造业的计量分析[J].科研管理,2007,28(5):18-24
[40]杜健,吴晓波,黄娟.技术体制框架下FDI影响产业技术边缘化的研究——以中国手机行业为例[J].西安电子科技大学学报:社会科学版,2008,(1):1-8
[41]石俊国,郁培丽,向涛.破坏性创新技术体制与产业演化[J].科学学研究,2016,34(7):1096-1102
[42]王芳,赵兰香.产业技术属性对企业R&D投入决策的影响[J].科学学研究,2016,34(3):346-356
[43] Leten B.,Belderbos R.,Looy B. V. Entry and Technological Performance in New Technology Domains:Technological Opportunities,Technology Competition and Technological Relatedness[J]. Journal of Management Studies,2016,53(8):1257-1291
[44] Giachetti C.,Marchi G. Successive Changes in Leadership in the Worldwide Mobile Phone Industry:The Role of Windows of Opportunity and Firms’Competitive Action[J]. Research Policy,2017,46(2):352-364
[45] Kim J.,Lee C. Y. Technological Regimes and Firm Survival[J]. Research Policy,2016,45(1):232-243
[46] Henttonen K.,Hurmelinna-Laukkanen P.,Ritala P. Managing the Appropriability of R&D Collaboration[J]. R&D Management,2016,46(S1):145-158
[47]宋艳双,刘人境.知识阈值对组织学习绩效的影响研究[J].管理科学,2016,29(4):94-103
[48]唐启义. DPS数据处理系统:实验设计、统计分析及数据挖掘[M].北京:科学出版社,2007