基本养老保险制度激励提前退休的实证研究
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摘要
对广东省21个地市10000名退休职工的问卷调查显示,有23.2%的男职工、16.1%的女职工属于提前退休,而推迟退休的男职工只有5.7%,女职工只有3.6%。实证结果显示,在考虑了其它控制变量的影响之后,男职工选择提前退休的每月养老金水平会提高5.2%,女职工会提高8.1%,表明当前基本养老保险制度存在对提前退休者的收益激励。这说明推迟退休并不吻合职工的实际行为,而现行基本养老保险制度也难以发挥延迟领取养老金年龄的激励作用。
This article,using survey data of 10,000 retired workers from 21 cities in Guangdong,finds that 23. 2% of male w orkers and 16. 1% of female w orkers retired before the official retirement age,w hile only 5. 7% male w orkers and 3. 6% of female w orkers retired after official retirement age. The regression model show s that dummy variable of early retirement has a significantly positive effect on retired w orkers' pension benefit. Early retired male w orkers earn 5. 2% more pension benefit,w hile female w orkers earn 8. 1% more. These results demonstrate that the new policy is not fully adapted to the real retirement behavior of w orkers and the current old age pension system can't stimulate w orkers to retire much later. Finally,this article contributes six policy suggestions,w hich are indispensable to the new policy.
This article,using survey data of 10,000 retired workers from 21 cities in Guangdong,finds that 23. 2% of male w orkers and 16. 1% of female w orkers retired before the official retirement age,w hile only 5. 7% male w orkers and 3. 6% of female w orkers retired after official retirement age. The regression model show s that dummy variable of early retirement has a significantly positive effect on retired w orkers' pension benefit. Early retired male w orkers earn 5. 2% more pension benefit,w hile female w orkers earn 8. 1% more. These results demonstrate that the new policy is not fully adapted to the real retirement behavior of w orkers and the current old age pension system can't stimulate w orkers to retire much later. Finally,this article contributes six policy suggestions,w hich are indispensable to the new policy.
引文
①根据《广东省统计年鉴》(2008—2010)、《广东省人力资源与社会保障统计公报》计算得出。
贝克俊.2012.我国养老保险结构调整刻不容缓[N].中国工商时报,-07-03(3).
丁仁船,张薇.2006.退休年龄与社会养老金的定量关系研究[J].市场与人口分析(1):61-80.
封进,胡岩.2008.中国城镇劳动力提前退休行为的研究[J].中国人口科学(4):88-94.
刘云龙.2013.养老金发展提升国家战略应对老龄化陷阱[EB/OL].人民网,2013-01-10.
梁玉成.2007.市场转型过程中的国家与市场[J].中国社会科学(5):129-142.
廖少宏.2012.提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素[J].中国人口科学(3):96-112.
彭浩然.2012.基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度研究[J].统计研究(9):31-36.
王红漫.2001.老年人再就业状况及影响因素分析:来自北京大学燕园地区的调查[J].市场与人口分析(1):64-70.
王宇熹,汪泓,陈群民.2012.国际养老保险体系可持续发展改革政策评析[J].商业研究(8):120-124.
汪泽英,曾湘泉.2004.中国社会养老保险收益激励与企业职工退休年龄分析[J].中国人民大学学报(6):74-78.
萧振禹.1996.个人和家庭因素对城市老年就业的影响[J].人口与经济(3):38-43.
谢恒,冉维波,周迪.2012.省际间基本养老保险覆盖面差异性分析:基于各省区面板数据的实证研究[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报:社会科学版(5):63-70.
杨俊,宋媛.2008.养老保险制度对提前退休影响的性别差异分析[J].浙江社会科学(7):18-23.
杨燕绥.2012.中国亟待进行养老金结构调整[EB/OL].中国网,2012-08-10.
杨宜勇.2007.体制内外悬殊根在“二元制”[J].人民论坛(6):32-33.
赵耀辉,徐建国.2001.我国城镇养老保险体制改革中的激励机制问题[J].经济学(季刊)(1):194-206.
ADAMS G A.1999.Career-related variables and planned retirement age:an extention of Beehr’s model[J].Journal of Vocational Behav-ior,55(2):221-235.
BORSCH-SUPAN A.1998.Incentive effects of social security on labor force participation:evidence in Germany and across Europe[R].NBER Working Paper6780.
BURTLSS G,MOTFFITT R A.1985.The joint choice of retirement age and postretirement hours of work[J].Journal of Labor Economics,3(2):209-236.
CLARK R,KREPS J,SPENGLER J.1978.Economics of aging:a survey[J].Journal of Economic Literature,16(3):919-962.
DAHL S,NILSEN A,VAAGE K.2002.Gender differences in early retirement behaviour[R].IZA Discussion Papers522.
GRAEBNER W A.1980.History of retirement:the meaning and function of an American institution,1885-1978[M].New Haven,Conn:Yale University Pres.
HALL A,JOHNSON T R.1980.The determinants of planned retirement age[J].Industrial and Labor Relations Review,33(2):241-254.
LILJA R.1996.Microeconomic analysis of early retirement in Finland[M]//WADENSJO E.Leaving the labor market early in the welfarestate.Amsterdam:Elsevier Science Publishers:157-173.
MONTALTO C P,YUH Y,HANNA S.2000.Determinants of planned retirement age[J].Financial Services Review,9(1):1-15.
PAMPEL F C,WEISS J A.1983.Economic development,pension policies,and the labor force participation of aged males:a cross-nation-al longitudinal approach[J].The American Journal of Sociology,89(2):350-372.
PANG G,WARSHAWSKY M,WEITZER B.2009.The retirement decision:current influences on the timing of retirement among olderworkers[R].Watson Wyatt Report.
PERACCHI F,WELCH F.1994.Trends in labor force transitions of older men and women[J].Journal of Labor Economics,12(2):210-242.
QUINN J F.1977.Microeconomic determinants of early retirement:a cross-sectional view of white married men[J].The Journal of HumanResources,12(3):329-346.
QUINN J F.1998.Microeconomic analysis of the retirement decision:United States[R].OECD Working Papers No.203.
QUINN J F,BURKHAUSER R,MEYERS D A.1990.Passing the torch:the influencing of economic incentive on work and retirement[R].W.E.Institute for Employment Research,Kalamazoo,MI.
REITZES D C,MUTRAN E J,FERNANDEZ M E.1998.The decision to retire early:a career perspective[J].Social Science Quarterly,79(3):607-619.
RUHM C J.1996.Do pension increase the labor supply of older men[J].Journal of Public Economics,59(2):157-175.
SLAVICK F.1966.Compulsory and flexible retirement in the American economy[M].Ithaca,N.Y.:Cornell University Press.
WISE D A.1985.Pensions,labor and individual choice[M].Chicago:The University of Chicago Press.
WISE D A.2004.Social security provisions and the labor force participation of older workers[J].Population and Development Review,30(Supplement):176-205.
贝克俊.2012.我国养老保险结构调整刻不容缓[N].中国工商时报,-07-03(3).
丁仁船,张薇.2006.退休年龄与社会养老金的定量关系研究[J].市场与人口分析(1):61-80.
封进,胡岩.2008.中国城镇劳动力提前退休行为的研究[J].中国人口科学(4):88-94.
刘云龙.2013.养老金发展提升国家战略应对老龄化陷阱[EB/OL].人民网,2013-01-10.
梁玉成.2007.市场转型过程中的国家与市场[J].中国社会科学(5):129-142.
廖少宏.2012.提前退休模式与行为及其影响因素[J].中国人口科学(3):96-112.
彭浩然.2012.基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度研究[J].统计研究(9):31-36.
王红漫.2001.老年人再就业状况及影响因素分析:来自北京大学燕园地区的调查[J].市场与人口分析(1):64-70.
王宇熹,汪泓,陈群民.2012.国际养老保险体系可持续发展改革政策评析[J].商业研究(8):120-124.
汪泽英,曾湘泉.2004.中国社会养老保险收益激励与企业职工退休年龄分析[J].中国人民大学学报(6):74-78.
萧振禹.1996.个人和家庭因素对城市老年就业的影响[J].人口与经济(3):38-43.
谢恒,冉维波,周迪.2012.省际间基本养老保险覆盖面差异性分析:基于各省区面板数据的实证研究[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报:社会科学版(5):63-70.
杨俊,宋媛.2008.养老保险制度对提前退休影响的性别差异分析[J].浙江社会科学(7):18-23.
杨燕绥.2012.中国亟待进行养老金结构调整[EB/OL].中国网,2012-08-10.
杨宜勇.2007.体制内外悬殊根在“二元制”[J].人民论坛(6):32-33.
赵耀辉,徐建国.2001.我国城镇养老保险体制改革中的激励机制问题[J].经济学(季刊)(1):194-206.
ADAMS G A.1999.Career-related variables and planned retirement age:an extention of Beehr’s model[J].Journal of Vocational Behav-ior,55(2):221-235.
BORSCH-SUPAN A.1998.Incentive effects of social security on labor force participation:evidence in Germany and across Europe[R].NBER Working Paper6780.
BURTLSS G,MOTFFITT R A.1985.The joint choice of retirement age and postretirement hours of work[J].Journal of Labor Economics,3(2):209-236.
CLARK R,KREPS J,SPENGLER J.1978.Economics of aging:a survey[J].Journal of Economic Literature,16(3):919-962.
DAHL S,NILSEN A,VAAGE K.2002.Gender differences in early retirement behaviour[R].IZA Discussion Papers522.
GRAEBNER W A.1980.History of retirement:the meaning and function of an American institution,1885-1978[M].New Haven,Conn:Yale University Pres.
HALL A,JOHNSON T R.1980.The determinants of planned retirement age[J].Industrial and Labor Relations Review,33(2):241-254.
LILJA R.1996.Microeconomic analysis of early retirement in Finland[M]//WADENSJO E.Leaving the labor market early in the welfarestate.Amsterdam:Elsevier Science Publishers:157-173.
MONTALTO C P,YUH Y,HANNA S.2000.Determinants of planned retirement age[J].Financial Services Review,9(1):1-15.
PAMPEL F C,WEISS J A.1983.Economic development,pension policies,and the labor force participation of aged males:a cross-nation-al longitudinal approach[J].The American Journal of Sociology,89(2):350-372.
PANG G,WARSHAWSKY M,WEITZER B.2009.The retirement decision:current influences on the timing of retirement among olderworkers[R].Watson Wyatt Report.
PERACCHI F,WELCH F.1994.Trends in labor force transitions of older men and women[J].Journal of Labor Economics,12(2):210-242.
QUINN J F.1977.Microeconomic determinants of early retirement:a cross-sectional view of white married men[J].The Journal of HumanResources,12(3):329-346.
QUINN J F.1998.Microeconomic analysis of the retirement decision:United States[R].OECD Working Papers No.203.
QUINN J F,BURKHAUSER R,MEYERS D A.1990.Passing the torch:the influencing of economic incentive on work and retirement[R].W.E.Institute for Employment Research,Kalamazoo,MI.
REITZES D C,MUTRAN E J,FERNANDEZ M E.1998.The decision to retire early:a career perspective[J].Social Science Quarterly,79(3):607-619.
RUHM C J.1996.Do pension increase the labor supply of older men[J].Journal of Public Economics,59(2):157-175.
SLAVICK F.1966.Compulsory and flexible retirement in the American economy[M].Ithaca,N.Y.:Cornell University Press.
WISE D A.1985.Pensions,labor and individual choice[M].Chicago:The University of Chicago Press.
WISE D A.2004.Social security provisions and the labor force participation of older workers[J].Population and Development Review,30(Supplement):176-205.