摘要
针对近年来飞机空调冷却子系统维修次数超警戒从而导致航空公司运营效率低下的问题,提出了一种基于某机型系统失效数据的失效模型建立新方法。对换拆率超警戒的热交换器这一特定部件运用扩展的Weibull分步建模,分别研究了其在2参数Weibull分步、3参数Weibull分步、双Weibull分步、三Weibull分步和2段Weibull分步模型下的拟合质量,运用更新过程解出期望失效数。随后对整个子系统运用幂律过程建模,使用拉普拉斯算法进行故障趋势预测。通过理论计算与实际维修资料对比,验证了模型准确性,修改了维修计划。该模型可用于航空公司对该子系统及其部件进行故障预测和拟定可靠性方案。
In recent years, the aircraft's air-conditioning cooling subsystem suffers too much maintenance, which results in the inefficient operation of airlines. In this article, a new method of failure modeling is proposed based on the failure-related data of a certain type of aircraft. As for the specific component-the heat exchanger with excessive maintenance, the extended model of Weibull distribution is applied. The analysis is conducted on the model's fitting quality under such conditions as two-parameter Weibull distribution, three-parameter Weibull distribution, double Weibull distribution, three Weibull distribution and twophased Weibull distribution. Via the renewal process, the expected failure number is obtained. Then, the the whole subsystem is modeled with the aid of power-law process, and the Laplace algorithm is applied for failure forecasting. The accuracy of model is verified by a series of theoretical calculation and the data on maintenance, and based on this, the maintenance plan is modified.The model can be applied by airlines to forecast the failure of the subsystem and its components and to work out the reliabilityrealted solutions.
引文
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