最低工资标准测算实证研究——基于CRITIC-熵权法客观赋权的动态组合测算
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摘要
科学合理的测算方法是最低工资标准制定及其制度有效施行并切实发挥权益保障效应的关键。本研究以上海市2007—2016年相关统计数据作为研究样本,分别采用比重法、恩格尔系数法、国际收入比例法、因子测算模型和ELES模型等5种方法实证测算最低工资标准,进而构建基于CRITIC-熵权法进行客观赋权的组合测算模型,并以灰色关联分析所得主要影响因子作为参考依据进行动态调整。研究结果发现:(1)5种单一算法中比重法和恩格尔系数法所得理论最低工资标准整体水平偏低,国际收入比例法所得温饱线与执行标准较接近而发展线则显著偏高,因子测算模型和ELES模型测算结果总体较为理想;(2)构建所得最低工资标准组合测算模型的模拟结果与实际执行标准拟合度较高,表明上海市近10年来最低工资标准制定含金量较高,相应标准已基本满足低收入劳动者生存和温饱需求,尤其近年来相关情况已得到显著改善;(3)深入分析来看,上海市最低工资标准仍普遍低于发展线需求,且与最低生活保障标准、人均GDP和职工平均工资等主要影响指标的比率关系并不协调,表明上海市最低工资标准制定及相应配套体制仍有较大提升改善空间。
Scientific and reasonable calculation method is the key to the minimum wage setting, the effective implementation of the minimum wage system and the full play of its protection effect of rights and interests. By taking the relevant statistical data of Shanghai from 2007 to 2016 as the research sample, the paper has used five methods, namely Proportion method, Engel Coefficient method, International Income Ratio method, Factor Calculation model and Extended Linear Expenditure System(ELES)method, to measure the minimum wage. Then the combination calculation model is constructed based on CRITIC-Entropy weight method, and the dynamic adjustment is carried out on the basis of the main influence factors obtained by Grey correlation analysis. The study finds out that, among the five single methods, the theoretical minimum wage standard obtained by the Proportion method and Engel Coefficient method is overall on the low side, the food and clothing line of the International Income Proportion method is close to the execution standard while its development line is significantly higher, and the results of Factor Calculation model and ELES model are generally satisfactory. The simulation results of the combined calculation model fit well with the actual minimum wage standard, which shows that the minimum wage standard in Shanghai has a high quality, and has basically met the survival, food and clothing needs of low-income workers, and its situation has been improved significantly especially in recent years. But in depth analysis, the minimum wage standard in Shanghai is still generally lower than the needs of the development line, and the ratio relationship between minimum wage and minimum living guarantee standard, GDP per capita, average wage is still uncoordinated, which indicates that there is still much room for improvement in the formulation of minimum wage standard and its corresponding supporting system in Shanghai.
Scientific and reasonable calculation method is the key to the minimum wage setting, the effective implementation of the minimum wage system and the full play of its protection effect of rights and interests. By taking the relevant statistical data of Shanghai from 2007 to 2016 as the research sample, the paper has used five methods, namely Proportion method, Engel Coefficient method, International Income Ratio method, Factor Calculation model and Extended Linear Expenditure System(ELES)method, to measure the minimum wage. Then the combination calculation model is constructed based on CRITIC-Entropy weight method, and the dynamic adjustment is carried out on the basis of the main influence factors obtained by Grey correlation analysis. The study finds out that, among the five single methods, the theoretical minimum wage standard obtained by the Proportion method and Engel Coefficient method is overall on the low side, the food and clothing line of the International Income Proportion method is close to the execution standard while its development line is significantly higher, and the results of Factor Calculation model and ELES model are generally satisfactory. The simulation results of the combined calculation model fit well with the actual minimum wage standard, which shows that the minimum wage standard in Shanghai has a high quality, and has basically met the survival, food and clothing needs of low-income workers, and its situation has been improved significantly especially in recent years. But in depth analysis, the minimum wage standard in Shanghai is still generally lower than the needs of the development line, and the ratio relationship between minimum wage and minimum living guarantee standard, GDP per capita, average wage is still uncoordinated, which indicates that there is still much room for improvement in the formulation of minimum wage standard and its corresponding supporting system in Shanghai.
引文
[1] Ayres M E.Minimum wage history [J].Monthly Labor Review,1997,120(12):40-41.
[2] 吴忠,关娇,何江.最低工资标准因子测算模型实证研究 [J].上海经济研究,2018(10):94-106.
[3] 罗小兰,丛树海.基于攀比效应的中国企业最低工资标准对其他工资水平的影响 [J].统计研究,2009(6):60-65.
[4] 孙中伟,舒玢玢.最低工资标准与农民工工资——基于珠三角的实证研究 [J].管理世界,2011(8):45-56+187-188.
[5] 刘柏惠,寇恩惠.最低工资相对价值变动对工资分布的影响——基于县级最低工资数据的分析 [J].经济科学,2017(4):5-21.
[6] Ashenfelter O,Smith R S.Compliance with the minimum wage law [J].Journal of Political Economy,1979,87(2):333-350.
[7] Card D,Krueger A B.Minimum wages and employment:A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania [J].American Economic Review,1994,84(4):772-793.
[8] Neumark D,Schweitzer M,Wascher W.The effects of minimum wages on the distribution of family incomes:A nonparametric analysis [J].Journal of Human Resources,2005,40(4):867-894.
[9] Macurdy T.How effective is the minimum wage at supporting the poor?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2015,123(2):497-545.
[10] Hashimoto M.Minimum wage effects on training on the job [J].American Economic Review,1982,72(5):1070-1087.
[11] 韩兆洲,魏章进,高培.我国最低工资统计测算模型研究 [J].统计研究,2007(8):36-43.
[12] 胡涛,杜丽群.最低工资的经济影响:一般均衡分析 [J].经济科学,2013(4):16-25.
[13] 马双,张劼,朱喜.最低工资对中国就业和工资水平的影响 [J].经济研究,2012(5):132-146.
[14] 孙楚仁,田国强,章韬.最低工资标准与中国企业的出口行为 [J].经济研究,2013(2):42-54.
[15] 韩兆洲,魏章进.最低工资测算的方法评价及改进思路 [J].统计与决策,2005(2):130-131.
[16] 王蓓.最低工资标准的科学测算与制度完善 [J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(4):54-64.
[17] 蔡火娣,韩兆洲.基于综列线性支出系统模型的最低工资研究 [J].统计与决策,2012(12):38-40.
[18] 韩兆洲,魏章进.基于灰色系统模型的最低工资研究 [J].数学的实践与认识,2005(9):99-104.
[19] 魏章进,韩兆洲.基于神经网络的最低工资标准测算 [J].统计与决策,2006(9):148-149.
[20] 魏章进,韩兆洲.最低工资标准测算的一种新方法 [J].统计与决策,2008(5):17-18.
[21] 叶志鹏,郑苏法.基于GDP的最低工资标准德尔菲法测算模型研究 [J].调研世界,2011(10):41-46.
[22] 唐纪,王景.组合预测方法评述 [J].预测,1999(2):43-44.
[23] 张学鹏,宋蕾.我国最低工资标准及其变动的决定因素实证分析 [J].当代经济科学,2018(5):117-123+128.
[24] 杨莲秀.最低工资标准影响因素实证分析——以上海为例 [J].上海大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):91-102.
[25] Boeri T.Setting the minimum wage [J].Labour Economics,2012,19(3):281-290.
[26] 宁光杰.中国最低工资标准制定和调整依据的实证分析 [J].中国人口科学,2011(1):26-34+111.
[27] 魏章进,韩兆洲,余鹏翼.最低工资标准影响因素分析 [J].商业研究,2010(11):44-47.
[28] Waltman J,Pittman S.The determinants of state minimum wage rates:A public policy approach [J].Journal of Labor Research,2002,23(1):51-56.
[29] Lluch C.The extended linear expenditure system [J].European Economic Review,1973,4(1):21-32.
[30] 陶长琪,陈文华,林龙辉.我国产业组织演变协同度的实证分析——以企业融合背景下的我国IT产业为例 [J].管理世界,2007(12):67-72.
[31] Diakoulaki D,Mavrotas G,Papayannakis L.Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems:The CRITIC method [J].Computers & Operations Research,1995,22(7):763-770.
[32] 郭春燕,朱孔来.城市软实力评价指标体系和测度方法的实证研究——以山东省17市为例 [J].西安财经学院学报,2014(4):79-85.
① 我国人力资源和社会保障部2015年下发《关于做好最低工资标准调整工作的通知》,将最低工资标准调整周期要求进一步更改为每2—3年至少调整1次。
(1)后文相同符号代表的含义一致,不再另作说明。其中,根据家计调查结果对居民收入进行由低到高排序,居于最低的20%居民户则视为贫困户;调整因素a主要考虑当地个人缴纳养老、失业、医疗保险费和住房公积金等费用,因上海市政府明确规定上海市最低工资不含个人依法缴纳的社会保险费和住房公积金,故后续计算时可将调整因素a忽略不计。
(2)以下生存线、温饱线、发展线划分方法同上。
(3)由于因子分析法对样本数量要求较高,本研究运用上海市历年最低工资及其影响因素相关数据进行因子分析,并最终对2007—2016年最低工资进行因子测算和分析。因篇幅有限,故此处省略原始样本数据。
(4)其中,pi代表第i种商品的价格,x为仅能维持基本生存的对第i种商品需求量,αi为回归方程系数,βi为对第i种商品的边际消费倾向;因上海市特殊性,此处同样不考虑调整系数a。
[2] 吴忠,关娇,何江.最低工资标准因子测算模型实证研究 [J].上海经济研究,2018(10):94-106.
[3] 罗小兰,丛树海.基于攀比效应的中国企业最低工资标准对其他工资水平的影响 [J].统计研究,2009(6):60-65.
[4] 孙中伟,舒玢玢.最低工资标准与农民工工资——基于珠三角的实证研究 [J].管理世界,2011(8):45-56+187-188.
[5] 刘柏惠,寇恩惠.最低工资相对价值变动对工资分布的影响——基于县级最低工资数据的分析 [J].经济科学,2017(4):5-21.
[6] Ashenfelter O,Smith R S.Compliance with the minimum wage law [J].Journal of Political Economy,1979,87(2):333-350.
[7] Card D,Krueger A B.Minimum wages and employment:A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania [J].American Economic Review,1994,84(4):772-793.
[8] Neumark D,Schweitzer M,Wascher W.The effects of minimum wages on the distribution of family incomes:A nonparametric analysis [J].Journal of Human Resources,2005,40(4):867-894.
[9] Macurdy T.How effective is the minimum wage at supporting the poor?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2015,123(2):497-545.
[10] Hashimoto M.Minimum wage effects on training on the job [J].American Economic Review,1982,72(5):1070-1087.
[11] 韩兆洲,魏章进,高培.我国最低工资统计测算模型研究 [J].统计研究,2007(8):36-43.
[12] 胡涛,杜丽群.最低工资的经济影响:一般均衡分析 [J].经济科学,2013(4):16-25.
[13] 马双,张劼,朱喜.最低工资对中国就业和工资水平的影响 [J].经济研究,2012(5):132-146.
[14] 孙楚仁,田国强,章韬.最低工资标准与中国企业的出口行为 [J].经济研究,2013(2):42-54.
[15] 韩兆洲,魏章进.最低工资测算的方法评价及改进思路 [J].统计与决策,2005(2):130-131.
[16] 王蓓.最低工资标准的科学测算与制度完善 [J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(4):54-64.
[17] 蔡火娣,韩兆洲.基于综列线性支出系统模型的最低工资研究 [J].统计与决策,2012(12):38-40.
[18] 韩兆洲,魏章进.基于灰色系统模型的最低工资研究 [J].数学的实践与认识,2005(9):99-104.
[19] 魏章进,韩兆洲.基于神经网络的最低工资标准测算 [J].统计与决策,2006(9):148-149.
[20] 魏章进,韩兆洲.最低工资标准测算的一种新方法 [J].统计与决策,2008(5):17-18.
[21] 叶志鹏,郑苏法.基于GDP的最低工资标准德尔菲法测算模型研究 [J].调研世界,2011(10):41-46.
[22] 唐纪,王景.组合预测方法评述 [J].预测,1999(2):43-44.
[23] 张学鹏,宋蕾.我国最低工资标准及其变动的决定因素实证分析 [J].当代经济科学,2018(5):117-123+128.
[24] 杨莲秀.最低工资标准影响因素实证分析——以上海为例 [J].上海大学学报(社会科学版),2014(5):91-102.
[25] Boeri T.Setting the minimum wage [J].Labour Economics,2012,19(3):281-290.
[26] 宁光杰.中国最低工资标准制定和调整依据的实证分析 [J].中国人口科学,2011(1):26-34+111.
[27] 魏章进,韩兆洲,余鹏翼.最低工资标准影响因素分析 [J].商业研究,2010(11):44-47.
[28] Waltman J,Pittman S.The determinants of state minimum wage rates:A public policy approach [J].Journal of Labor Research,2002,23(1):51-56.
[29] Lluch C.The extended linear expenditure system [J].European Economic Review,1973,4(1):21-32.
[30] 陶长琪,陈文华,林龙辉.我国产业组织演变协同度的实证分析——以企业融合背景下的我国IT产业为例 [J].管理世界,2007(12):67-72.
[31] Diakoulaki D,Mavrotas G,Papayannakis L.Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems:The CRITIC method [J].Computers & Operations Research,1995,22(7):763-770.
[32] 郭春燕,朱孔来.城市软实力评价指标体系和测度方法的实证研究——以山东省17市为例 [J].西安财经学院学报,2014(4):79-85.
① 我国人力资源和社会保障部2015年下发《关于做好最低工资标准调整工作的通知》,将最低工资标准调整周期要求进一步更改为每2—3年至少调整1次。
(1)后文相同符号代表的含义一致,不再另作说明。其中,根据家计调查结果对居民收入进行由低到高排序,居于最低的20%居民户则视为贫困户;调整因素a主要考虑当地个人缴纳养老、失业、医疗保险费和住房公积金等费用,因上海市政府明确规定上海市最低工资不含个人依法缴纳的社会保险费和住房公积金,故后续计算时可将调整因素a忽略不计。
(2)以下生存线、温饱线、发展线划分方法同上。
(3)由于因子分析法对样本数量要求较高,本研究运用上海市历年最低工资及其影响因素相关数据进行因子分析,并最终对2007—2016年最低工资进行因子测算和分析。因篇幅有限,故此处省略原始样本数据。
(4)其中,pi代表第i种商品的价格,x为仅能维持基本生存的对第i种商品需求量,αi为回归方程系数,βi为对第i种商品的边际消费倾向;因上海市特殊性,此处同样不考虑调整系数a。