基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估
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摘要
选用中国气象局国家气候中心由逐日观测资料插值而成的格点化观测数据集,评估了区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)对中国极端降水的模拟能力,并对2016—2050年中国极端降水事件进行预估。文中主要采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)方法,识别了既定时间尺度下具有一定强度和影响面积的极端降水事件,分析未来中国极端降水事件的特征和变化趋势,结果表明:1)区域气候模式CCLM对中国极端降水的空间分布和变化趋势均有较强的模拟能力;2)2016—2050年中国极端降水事件整体呈增加趋势,RCP 8.5情景下变化更为显著,事件强度更大;3)未来不同情景下,均有可能发生强度或影响面积超过基准期最大值的事件,其中影响面积大的事件多发生在华北和东北,强度大的事件多发生在西南和华南。
A gridded observation data set interpolated with daily observation data by the National Climate Center is selected to evaluate the capability of a regional climate model COSMO- CLM(CCLM)for simulating extreme precipitation in China. The paper mainly applies the Intensity-Area-Duration(IAD) method to identify the extreme precipitation events with certain intensity in certain area at the given time scale, and project the trend of extreme precipitation events in the future(2016-2050) based on the CCLM output. The research results show that: 1) CCLM can well capture the distribution and trend of the extreme precipitation in China. 2) The extreme precipitation events in China will increase during 2016- 2050. The increasing trend is more significant and the events are more intensive in RCP 8.5 scenario than in RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5. 3) Extreme precipitation events beyond the maximum intensity/coverage of baseline period are likely to occur in all emission scenarios during 2016-2050. The events with larger area will mainly distribute in North China and Northeast China. The events with higher intensity will mainly distribute in Southwest China and South China.
A gridded observation data set interpolated with daily observation data by the National Climate Center is selected to evaluate the capability of a regional climate model COSMO- CLM(CCLM)for simulating extreme precipitation in China. The paper mainly applies the Intensity-Area-Duration(IAD) method to identify the extreme precipitation events with certain intensity in certain area at the given time scale, and project the trend of extreme precipitation events in the future(2016-2050) based on the CCLM output. The research results show that: 1) CCLM can well capture the distribution and trend of the extreme precipitation in China. 2) The extreme precipitation events in China will increase during 2016- 2050. The increasing trend is more significant and the events are more intensive in RCP 8.5 scenario than in RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5. 3) Extreme precipitation events beyond the maximum intensity/coverage of baseline period are likely to occur in all emission scenarios during 2016-2050. The events with larger area will mainly distribute in North China and Northeast China. The events with higher intensity will mainly distribute in Southwest China and South China.
引文
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[23]陈活泼.CMIP5模式对21世纪末中国极端降水事件变化的预估[J].科学通报,2013,58(8):743-752.[CHEN H PProjected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models.Chines Science Bulletin,2013,58(8):743-752.]
[24]TU K,YAN Z W,WANG Y.A spatial cluster analysis of heavy rains in China[J].Atmospheric&Oceanic Science Let ters,2011,4(1):36-40.
[25]CHEN Y,ZHAI P M.Persistent extreme precipitation events in China during 1951-2010[J].Climate Research,201357(2):143-155.
[26]REN F M,CUI Z Q,GONG Z Q,et al.An objective identification technique for regional extreme events[J].Journal o Climate,2012,25(20):7015-7027.
[27]GIORGI F,JONES C,ASRAR G R.Addressing climate information needs at the regional level:The CORDEX frame work[J].World Meteorological Organization Bulletin,2009,58(3):175-183.
[28]ROCKEL B,WILL A,HENSE A.The regional climate model COSMO-CLM(CCLM)[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift2008,17(4):347-348.
[29]GIORGETTA M A,JUNGCLAUS J,REICK C H,et al.Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPIESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5[J].Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2013,5(3):572-597.
[30]NEW M,HULME M,JONES P.Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability.Part II:Development o1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(13):2217-2238.
[31]XU Y,GAO X J,SHEN Y,et al.A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simula tion[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2009,26(4):763-772.
[32]吴佳,高学杰.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(4):11021111.[WU J,GAO X J.A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(4):1102-1111.]
[33]ANDREADIS K M,CLARK E A,WOOD A W,et al.Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States[J]Journal of Hydrometeorology,2005,6(6):985-1001.
[34]景丞,姜彤,王艳君,等.中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究[J].气象学报,2016,74(4):572-582[JING C,JIANG T,WANG Y J,et al.Research on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2016,74(4):572-582.]
[35]MANN H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[36]KENDALL M G.Rank Correlation Methods[M].Griffin,London,1975.
[37]TAO H,GEMMER M,BAI Y,et al.Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years:Human im pact or climate change?[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,400(1/2):1-9.
[38]GEMMER M,FISCHER T,JIANG T,et al.Trends of precipitation extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin,South Chin[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(3):750-761.
[39]XU Y,XU C H.Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J].At mospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5(6):489-494.
[40]陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.[CHEN Y C,XU Y,XU C H,et al.Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5 multi models.Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,10(3):217-225.]
[41]FENG L,ZHOU T,WU B,et al.Projection of future precipitation change over China with a high-resolutiong lobal at mospheric model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2011,28(2):464-476.
[42]JIANG Z,SONG J,LI L,et al.Extreme climate events in China:IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection[J].Cli matic Change,2012,110(1):385-401.
[43]JIANG D,WANG H,LANG X.Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models[J].Ad vances in Atmospheric Sciences,2005,22(4):479-495.
[44]孙颖,丁一汇.来百年东亚夏季降水和季风预测的研究[J].中国科学,2009,39(11):1487-1504.[SUN Y.DING Y HA projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia.Science in China Series D:Eart Sciences,2009,39(11):1487-1504.]
[45]吴佳,周波涛,徐影.中国平均降水和极端降水对气候变暖的响应:CMIP5模式模拟评估和预估[J].地球物理学报2015,58(9):3048-3060.[WU J,ZHOU B T,XU Y.Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming CMIP5 simulation and projection.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2015,58(9):3048-3060.]
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[2]TRENBERH K E.Atmosphere moisture residence times and cycling:Implication for rainfall rates with climate[J].Cli mate Change,1998,39(4):667-694.
[3]FRICH P,ALEXANDER L V,DELLSMARTS P,et al.Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during th second half of the twentieth century[J].Climate Research,2002,19:193-212.
[4]ALEXANDER L V,ZHANG X,PETERSON T C,et al.Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of tempera ture and precipitation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2006,111(D5):1042-1063.
[5]ZHAI P M,ZHANG X B,WAN H,et al.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes ove China[J].Journal of Climate,2005,18(7):1096-1108.
[6]钱维宏,符娇兰,张玮玮,等.近40年中国平均气候与极端气候变化的概述[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(7):673-683[QIAN W H,FU J L,ZHANG W W,et al.Changes in mean climate and extreme climate in China during the last 4years.Advances in Earth Science,2007,22(7):673-683.]
[7]王芳栋,李涛,许吟隆,等.PRECIS和Reg CM3对中国区域气候的长期模拟比较[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2)159-165.[WANG F D,LI T,XU Y L,et al.Inter-comparison of long-term simulation of climate over China by PRECISand Reg CM3.Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(2):159-165.]
[8]高学杰,徐影,赵宗慈,等.数值模式不同分辨率和地形对东亚降水模拟影响的试验[J].大气科学,2006,30(2):185192.[GAO X Y,XU Y,ZHAO Z C,et al.Impacts of horizontal resolution and topography on the numerical simulatio of East Asian precipitation.Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Science,2006,30(2):185-192.]
[9]汤剑平,赵鸣,苏炳凯.分辨率对区域气候极端事件模拟的影响[J].气象学报,2006,64(4):432-442.[TANG J PZHAO M,SU B K,et al.Effects of model resolution on the simulation of regionally climatic extreme events.Acta Mete orologica Sinica,2006,64(4):432-442.]
[10]BELL J L,SLOAN L C,SNYDER M A.Regional changes in extreme climatic events:A future climate scenario[J]Journal of Climate,2004,17(1):81-87.
[11]BENISTON M,STEPHENSON D B,CHRISTENSEN O B,et al.Future extreme events in European climate:An explo ration of regional climate model projections[J].Climatic Change,2007,81(S1):71-95.
[12]SILLMANN J,ROECKNER E.Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change[J].Climati Change,2008,86(1):83-104.
[13]ALEXANDER L V,ARBLASTER J M.Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia i relation to future projections[J].International Journal of Climatology,2008,29(3):417-435.
[14]吴迪,赵勇,裴源生,等.气候变化对澜沧江-湄公河上中游径流的影响研究[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(9):15691582.[WU D,ZHAO Y,PEI Y S,et al.Climate change and its effects on runoff in upper and middle reaches of Lan cang-Mekong River.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(9):1569-1582.]
[15]PINTO I,LENNARD C,TADROSS M,et al.Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Afric from two CORDEX models[J].Climatic Change,2016,135(3):655-668.
[16]谈丰,苏布达,高超,等.高精度区域气候模式对淮河流域降水的模拟评估[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(10)1236-1242.[TAN F,SU B D,GAO C,et al.High-resolution regional climate model(CCLM)for simulation of precipita tion in the Huaihe River Basin,China.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2012,21(10):1236-1242.]
[17]钟军,苏布达,翟建青,等.中国日降水的分布特征和未来变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(2):89-95.[ZHONGJ,SU B D,ZHAI J Q,et al.Distribution characteristics and future trends of daily precipitation in China.Advances i Climate Change Research,2013,9(2):89-95.]
[18]陶辉,黄金龙,翟建青,等.长江流域气候变化高分辨率模拟与RCP 4.5情景下的预估[J].气候变化研究进展,20139(4):246-251.[TAO H,HUANG J L,ZHAI J Q,et al.Simulation and projection of climate change under the RCP 4.scenario in the Yangtze River Basin based on CCLM.Advances in Climate Change Research,2013,9(4):246-251.]
[19]FISCHER T,MENZ C,SU B D,et al.Simulated and projected climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin,South China,using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM[J].International Journal of Climatology,2013,33(14):2988-3001
[20]GAO X J,ZHAO Z C,GIORGI F.Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia[J]Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2002,19(5):927-942.
[21]ZHANG Y,XU Y L,DONG W J,et al.A future climate scenario of regional changes in extreme climate events ove China using the PRECIS climate model[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(24):194-199.
[22]江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,2009,33(1):109-120.[JIANG Z H,CHEN W L,SONG J,et al.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models.Chinese Journal of Atmospheri Sciences,2009,33(1):109-120.]
[23]陈活泼.CMIP5模式对21世纪末中国极端降水事件变化的预估[J].科学通报,2013,58(8):743-752.[CHEN H PProjected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models.Chines Science Bulletin,2013,58(8):743-752.]
[24]TU K,YAN Z W,WANG Y.A spatial cluster analysis of heavy rains in China[J].Atmospheric&Oceanic Science Let ters,2011,4(1):36-40.
[25]CHEN Y,ZHAI P M.Persistent extreme precipitation events in China during 1951-2010[J].Climate Research,201357(2):143-155.
[26]REN F M,CUI Z Q,GONG Z Q,et al.An objective identification technique for regional extreme events[J].Journal o Climate,2012,25(20):7015-7027.
[27]GIORGI F,JONES C,ASRAR G R.Addressing climate information needs at the regional level:The CORDEX frame work[J].World Meteorological Organization Bulletin,2009,58(3):175-183.
[28]ROCKEL B,WILL A,HENSE A.The regional climate model COSMO-CLM(CCLM)[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift2008,17(4):347-348.
[29]GIORGETTA M A,JUNGCLAUS J,REICK C H,et al.Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPIESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5[J].Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2013,5(3):572-597.
[30]NEW M,HULME M,JONES P.Representing twentieth century space-time climate variability.Part II:Development o1901-96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate[J].Journal of Climate,2000,13(13):2217-2238.
[31]XU Y,GAO X J,SHEN Y,et al.A daily temperature dataset over China and its application in validating a RCM simula tion[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2009,26(4):763-772.
[32]吴佳,高学杰.一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(4):11021111.[WU J,GAO X J.A gridded daily observation dataset over China region and comparison with the other datasets Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(4):1102-1111.]
[33]ANDREADIS K M,CLARK E A,WOOD A W,et al.Twentieth-century drought in the conterminous United States[J]Journal of Hydrometeorology,2005,6(6):985-1001.
[34]景丞,姜彤,王艳君,等.中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究[J].气象学报,2016,74(4):572-582[JING C,JIANG T,WANG Y J,et al.Research on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China.Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2016,74(4):572-582.]
[35]MANN H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[36]KENDALL M G.Rank Correlation Methods[M].Griffin,London,1975.
[37]TAO H,GEMMER M,BAI Y,et al.Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years:Human im pact or climate change?[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,400(1/2):1-9.
[38]GEMMER M,FISCHER T,JIANG T,et al.Trends of precipitation extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin,South Chin[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(3):750-761.
[39]XU Y,XU C H.Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J].At mospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5(6):489-494.
[40]陈晓晨,徐影,许崇海,等.CMIP5全球气候模式对中国地区降水模拟能力的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(3):217-225.[CHEN Y C,XU Y,XU C H,et al.Assessment of precipitation simulations in China by CMIP5 multi models.Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,10(3):217-225.]
[41]FENG L,ZHOU T,WU B,et al.Projection of future precipitation change over China with a high-resolutiong lobal at mospheric model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2011,28(2):464-476.
[42]JIANG Z,SONG J,LI L,et al.Extreme climate events in China:IPCC-AR4 model evaluation and projection[J].Cli matic Change,2012,110(1):385-401.
[43]JIANG D,WANG H,LANG X.Evaluation of East Asian climatology as simulated by seven coupled models[J].Ad vances in Atmospheric Sciences,2005,22(4):479-495.
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