江苏省单季稻生育期内降水分配格局的时空变化
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摘要
利用江苏省52个气象站1961-2012年逐日降水资料及单季稻产量逐年数据,计算了生育期5-10月的降水分配指数,探讨了降水分配格局的时空变化及与产量的潜在联系。结果表明,江苏省单季稻生育期内降水分配呈现出较强的不均匀性,雨量主要集中于50 mm以上日降水事件和夏季的7月,其中北部地区的降水集中性要明显高于南部地区;近50年来单季稻生育期内降水分配格局的不均匀性呈现加剧态势,突出体现在南部地区50 mm以上降水和8月降水对雨量贡献率的显著增加;单季稻产量与降水分配格局存在着一定的相关性,降水集中性越高对产量越不利,降水分配指数中,以50 mm以上降水的雨量贡献率对产量的负效应最为显著,且南部地区的单季稻产量对这一指标的波动更为敏感。
Based on the data of daily precipitation and single-crop rice yield at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu province during 1961 to 2012,the precipitation distribution indices during growing periods from May to October were calculated,and the possible relationship between spatio-temporal variability of precipitation distribution pattern and rice yield was explored. The results showed that,the precipitation distribution during growing periods of single-crop rice in Jiangsu had strong ununiformity,precipitation was mainly concentrated in the daily rainfall events with amount above 50 mm and July of summer,and the precipitation concentration in north Jiangsu was higher than that of south Jiangsu. The precipitation distribution during growing periods of single-crop rice in Jiangsu was intensifying in recent 50 years,and contribution of the rainfall events with amount above 50 mm and the precipitation of August in south Jiangsu had significant increasing trends. There was a certain correlation between precipitation distribution pattern and single-crop rice yield,the higher precipitation concentration would bring the less yield. Among the precipitation distribution indices,the negative impacts of the contribution of rainfall events with amount above 50 mm to yield were more obvious,and single-crop rice yield in south Jiangsu was more sensitive to the variability of the precipitation indicator.
Based on the data of daily precipitation and single-crop rice yield at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu province during 1961 to 2012,the precipitation distribution indices during growing periods from May to October were calculated,and the possible relationship between spatio-temporal variability of precipitation distribution pattern and rice yield was explored. The results showed that,the precipitation distribution during growing periods of single-crop rice in Jiangsu had strong ununiformity,precipitation was mainly concentrated in the daily rainfall events with amount above 50 mm and July of summer,and the precipitation concentration in north Jiangsu was higher than that of south Jiangsu. The precipitation distribution during growing periods of single-crop rice in Jiangsu was intensifying in recent 50 years,and contribution of the rainfall events with amount above 50 mm and the precipitation of August in south Jiangsu had significant increasing trends. There was a certain correlation between precipitation distribution pattern and single-crop rice yield,the higher precipitation concentration would bring the less yield. Among the precipitation distribution indices,the negative impacts of the contribution of rainfall events with amount above 50 mm to yield were more obvious,and single-crop rice yield in south Jiangsu was more sensitive to the variability of the precipitation indicator.
引文
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[3]佴军.近30年江苏省水稻生产的时空变化与效益分析[D].江苏扬州:扬州大学,2013.
[4]朱珠,陶福禄,娄运生.1980-2009年江苏省气温变化特征及水稻高温热害变化规律[J].江苏农业科学,2013,41(6):311-315.
[5]任义方,高苹,王春乙.江苏高温热害对水稻的影响及成因分析[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(5):101-107.
[6]尹思慧,徐蒋来,朱利群.近30年江苏省水稻抽穗灌浆期低温冷害时空变化及对水稻产量的影响[J].江西农业学报,2016,28(5):7-13.
[7]宋晓猛,张建云,刘九夫,等.北京地区降水结构时空演变特征[J].水利学报,2015,46(5):525-535.
[8]谭孟祥,景元书,曹海宁.江苏省一季稻生长季气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].江苏农业科学,2016,44(1):349-353.
[9]徐慧,管蓓,薛艳,等.青海省近50年降水集中性的时空变化特征研究[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(3):6-9.
[10]肖艳兵,奚砚涛,于红学,等.1960~2011年江苏省降水变化特征[J].湖北农业科学,2014,53(16):3788-3793.
[11]朱珠,陶福禄,类运生,等.1981-2009年江苏省气候变化趋势及其对水稻产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):567-572.
[12]WANG W,XING W,YANG T,et al.Characterizing the changing behaviours of precipitation concentration in the Yangtze River Basin,China[J].Hydrological Processes,2013,27(24):3375-3393.
[13]肖卉,姜爱军,沈瑱,等.江苏省最大日降水量时空分布特征及其统计拟合[J].气象科学,2006,26(2):177-182.
[14]包云轩,孟翠丽,申双和,等.基于CI指数的江苏省近50年干旱的时空分布规律[J].地理学报,2011,66(5):599-608.
[15]黄荣辉,顾雷,陈际龙,等.东亚季风系统的时空变化及其对我国气候异常影响的最近研究进展[J].大气科学,2008,32(4):691-719.
[16]张灵玲,许遐祯,韩珏静,等.近30年江苏夏季降水日变化的气候学特征[J].气象科学,2016,36(6):826-833.