The Rapidly Changing Arctic and Its Impact on Global Climate
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摘要
Arctic sea ice has significant seasonal variability. Prior to the 2000 s, it retreated about 15% in summer and fully recovered in winter. However, by the year 2007, Arctic sea ice extent experienced a catastrophic decline to about 4.28×106 km2, which was 50% lower than conditions in the 1950 s to the 1970 s(Serreze et al., 2008). That was a record low over the course of the modern satellite record, since 1979(note that the year 2012 became the new record low). This astonishing event drew wide-ranging attention in 2007-2009 during the 4 th International Polar Year. The dramatic decline of sea ice attracts many scientists' interest and has become the focus of intense research since then. Currently, sea ice retreat is not only appearing around the marginal ice zone, but also in the pack ice inside the central Arctic(Zhao et al., 2018). In fact, premonitory signs had already been seen through other evidence. Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, US naval submarines had been conducting an extensive survey under the sea ice and taking measurements of sea ice thickness. Their measurements revealed a gradual decrease of ice thickness to 1.8 m during winter by the end of the 20 th century, in contrast to the climatological mean of 3.1 m(Rothrock et al., 1999). However, this alarming result did not draw much attention since the Arctic was still severely cold at that time.
Arctic sea ice has significant seasonal variability. Prior to the 2000 s, it retreated about 15% in summer and fully recovered in winter. However, by the year 2007, Arctic sea ice extent experienced a catastrophic decline to about 4.28×106 km2, which was 50% lower than conditions in the 1950 s to the 1970 s(Serreze et al., 2008). That was a record low over the course of the modern satellite record, since 1979(note that the year 2012 became the new record low). This astonishing event drew wide-ranging attention in 2007-2009 during the 4 th International Polar Year. The dramatic decline of sea ice attracts many scientists' interest and has become the focus of intense research since then. Currently, sea ice retreat is not only appearing around the marginal ice zone, but also in the pack ice inside the central Arctic(Zhao et al., 2018). In fact, premonitory signs had already been seen through other evidence. Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, US naval submarines had been conducting an extensive survey under the sea ice and taking measurements of sea ice thickness. Their measurements revealed a gradual decrease of ice thickness to 1.8 m during winter by the end of the 20 th century, in contrast to the climatological mean of 3.1 m(Rothrock et al., 1999). However, this alarming result did not draw much attention since the Arctic was still severely cold at that time.
Arctic sea ice has significant seasonal variability. Prior to the 2000 s, it retreated about 15% in summer and fully recovered in winter. However, by the year 2007, Arctic sea ice extent experienced a catastrophic decline to about 4.28×106 km2, which was 50% lower than conditions in the 1950 s to the 1970 s(Serreze et al., 2008). That was a record low over the course of the modern satellite record, since 1979(note that the year 2012 became the new record low). This astonishing event drew wide-ranging attention in 2007-2009 during the 4 th International Polar Year. The dramatic decline of sea ice attracts many scientists' interest and has become the focus of intense research since then. Currently, sea ice retreat is not only appearing around the marginal ice zone, but also in the pack ice inside the central Arctic(Zhao et al., 2018). In fact, premonitory signs had already been seen through other evidence. Before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, US naval submarines had been conducting an extensive survey under the sea ice and taking measurements of sea ice thickness. Their measurements revealed a gradual decrease of ice thickness to 1.8 m during winter by the end of the 20 th century, in contrast to the climatological mean of 3.1 m(Rothrock et al., 1999). However, this alarming result did not draw much attention since the Arctic was still severely cold at that time.
引文
Chen,L.L.,Francis,J.,and Hanna,E.,2018.The‘Warm-Arctic/Cold continents’pattern during 1901-2010.International Journal of Climatology,38:5245-5254.
Chen,X.,and Tung,K.K.,2014.Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.Science,345:897-903.
Chen,X.Y.,and Tung,K.K.,2018.Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation.Nature,558:387-391,DOI:10.1038/s41586-018-0320.
Cohen,J.,Screen,J.A.,Furtado,J.C.,Barlow,M.,Whittleston,D.,Coumou,D.,Francis,J.,Dethloff,K.,Entekhabi,D.,Overland,J.,and Jones,J.,2014.Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.Nature Geoscience,7(9):627-637.
Cullather,R.I.,Lim,Y.K.,Boisvert,L.N.,Brucker,L.,Lee,J.N.,and Nowicki,S.M.J.,2016.Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter,2015-2016.Geophyical Research Letters,43:10808-10816,DOI:10.1002/2016GL071228.
Eveng?rd,B.,Nymand Larsen,J.,and Paasche,?.,2015.The New Arctic.Springer International Publishing,Switzerland,1-352.
Francis,J.A.,and Vavrus,S.J.,2012.Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes.Geophysical Research Letters,39(6):L06801.
Francis,J.A.,and Vavrus,S.J.,2015.Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming.Environmental Research Letters,10(1):014005,DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005.
Haine,T.W.N.,Curry,B.,Rüdiger,G.,Hansen,E.,Karcher,M.,Lee,C.,Rudels,B.,de Steur,L.,and Woodgate,R.,2015.Arctic freshwater export:Status,mechanisms,and prospects.Global and Planetary Change,125:13-35,DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.013.
Hunke,E.,Notz,D.,Turner,A.,and Vancoppenolle,M.,2011.The multiphase physics of sea ice:A review for model developers.The Cryosphere,5(4):989-1009.
Katsman,C.A.,and van Oldenborgh,G.J.,2011.Tracing the upper ocean’s‘missing heat’.Geophysical Research Letters,38:L14610,DOI:10.1029/2011GL048417.
Kay,J.E.,and Gettelman,A.,2009.Cloud influence on and response to seasonal Arctic sea ice loss.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,114(D18):D18204,DOI:10.1029/2009jd011773.
Kumar,A.,Perlwitz,J.,Eischeid,J.,Quan,X.,Xu,T.,Zhang,T.,Hoerling,M.,Jha,B.,and Wang,W.,2010.Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification.Geophysical Research Letters,37:L21701,DOI:10.1029/2010GL045022.
Luo,D.,Chen,X.,Overland,J.,Simmonds,I.,Wu,Y.,and Zhang,P.,2019.Weakened potential vorticity barrier linked to recent winter Arctic sea-ice loss and mid-latitude cold extremes.Journal of Climate,DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0449.1.
Luo,D.,Xiao,Y.,Yao,Y.,Dai,A.,Simmonds,I.,and Franzke,C.L.E.,2016.Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies.Part I:Blocking-induced amplification.Journal of Climate,29:3925-3947.
Mori,M.,Watanabe,M.,Shiogama,H.,Inoue,J.,and Kimoto,M.,2014.Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades.Nature Geoscience,7(12):869-873.
Morison,J.,Kwok,R.,Peralta-Ferriz,C.,Alkire,M.,Rigor,I.,Andersen,R.,and Steele,M.,2012.Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways.Nature,481(7379):66-70,DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10705.
Overland,J.E.,and Wang,M.,2016.Recent extreme Arctic temperatures are due to a split polar vortex.Journal of Climate,29(15):5609-5616,DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0320.1.
Proshutinsky,A.,and Krishfield,R.,2019.In a spin:New insights into the Beaufort Gyre.Eos,100:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EO119765.
Rahmstorf,S.,1994.Rapid climate transitions in a coupled oceanatmosphere model.Nature,372:82-85.
Rahmstorf,S.,1997.Risk of sea-change in the Atlantic.Nature,388:825-826.
Ronski,S.,and Budéus,G.,2005.Time series of winter convection in the Greenland Sea.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,110(C4):C04015,DOI:10.1029/2004JC002318.
Rothrock,D.A.,Yu,Y.,and Maykut,G.A.,1999.Thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover.Geophysical Research Letters,26(23):3469,DOI:10.1029/1999GL010863.
Schultz,C.,2013.August Arctic cyclone was strongest summer storm on record.Eos,Transactions American Geophysical Union,94(8):84.
Screen,J.A.,Deser,C.,and Simmonds,I.,2012.Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming.Geophysical Research Letters,39:L10709,DOI:10.1029/2012GL051598.
Serreze,M.,Drobot,S.,Gearheard,S.,Holland,M.,Maslanik,J.,Meier,W.,and Scambos,T.,2008.Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007.Eos,Transactions American Geophysical Union,89(2):13-14.
Simmonds,I.,and Keay,K.,2009.Extraordinary september Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008.Geophysical Research Letters,36:L19715,DOI:10.1029/2009GL039810.
Steele,M.,Morison,J.,Ermold,W.,Rigor,I.,Ortmeyer,M.,and Shimada,K.,2004.Circulation of summer Pacific halocline water in the Arctic Ocean.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,109:C02027,DOI:10.1029/2003JC002009.
Winton,M.,2013.Sea ice-Albedo feedback and nonlinear Arctic climate change.In:Arctic Sea Ice Decline:Observations,Projections,Mechanisms,and Implications.DeWeaver,E.T.,et al.,eds.,American Geophysical Union,Washington,D.C.,111-132.
Wu,B.,and Francis,J.A.,2019.Summer Arctic cold anomaly dynamically linked to east Asian heat waves.Journal of Climate,32:1137-1150.
Wu,B.,Handorf,D.,Dethloff,K.,Rinke,A.,and Hu,A.,2013.Winter weather patterns over northern Eurasia and Arctic sea ice loss.Monthly Weather Review,141(11):3786-3800.
Yamagami,A.,Matsueda,M.,and Tanaka,H.L.,2017.Extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016.Atmospheric Science Letters,18:307-314,DOI:10.1002/asl.757.
Yang,X.Y.,Fyfe,J.C.,and Flato,G.M.,2010.The role of poleward energy transport in Arctic temperature evolution.Geophysical Research Letters,37(14):L14803,DOI:10.1029/2010gl043934.
Zhao,J.P.,Wang,W.B.,Kang,S.H.,Yang,E.J.,and Kim,T.W.,2015.Optical properties around Mendeleev Ridge related to the physical features of water masses.Deep Sea Research II,120:43-51.
Zhao,J.P.,Barber,D.,Zhang,S.G.,Yang,Q.H.,Wang,X.Y.,and Xie,H.J.,2018.Record low sea-ice concentration in the central Arctic during summer 2010.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,35(1):104-113,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7066-6.
Zhong,W.,Steele,M.,Zhang,J.,and Zhao,J.,2018.Greater role of geostrophic currents in Ekman dynamics in the western Arctic Ocean as a mechanism for Beaufort Gyre Stabilization.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,123:149-165,https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013282.
Chen,X.,and Tung,K.K.,2014.Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.Science,345:897-903.
Chen,X.Y.,and Tung,K.K.,2018.Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation.Nature,558:387-391,DOI:10.1038/s41586-018-0320.
Cohen,J.,Screen,J.A.,Furtado,J.C.,Barlow,M.,Whittleston,D.,Coumou,D.,Francis,J.,Dethloff,K.,Entekhabi,D.,Overland,J.,and Jones,J.,2014.Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.Nature Geoscience,7(9):627-637.
Cullather,R.I.,Lim,Y.K.,Boisvert,L.N.,Brucker,L.,Lee,J.N.,and Nowicki,S.M.J.,2016.Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter,2015-2016.Geophyical Research Letters,43:10808-10816,DOI:10.1002/2016GL071228.
Eveng?rd,B.,Nymand Larsen,J.,and Paasche,?.,2015.The New Arctic.Springer International Publishing,Switzerland,1-352.
Francis,J.A.,and Vavrus,S.J.,2012.Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes.Geophysical Research Letters,39(6):L06801.
Francis,J.A.,and Vavrus,S.J.,2015.Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming.Environmental Research Letters,10(1):014005,DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005.
Haine,T.W.N.,Curry,B.,Rüdiger,G.,Hansen,E.,Karcher,M.,Lee,C.,Rudels,B.,de Steur,L.,and Woodgate,R.,2015.Arctic freshwater export:Status,mechanisms,and prospects.Global and Planetary Change,125:13-35,DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.013.
Hunke,E.,Notz,D.,Turner,A.,and Vancoppenolle,M.,2011.The multiphase physics of sea ice:A review for model developers.The Cryosphere,5(4):989-1009.
Katsman,C.A.,and van Oldenborgh,G.J.,2011.Tracing the upper ocean’s‘missing heat’.Geophysical Research Letters,38:L14610,DOI:10.1029/2011GL048417.
Kay,J.E.,and Gettelman,A.,2009.Cloud influence on and response to seasonal Arctic sea ice loss.Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,114(D18):D18204,DOI:10.1029/2009jd011773.
Kumar,A.,Perlwitz,J.,Eischeid,J.,Quan,X.,Xu,T.,Zhang,T.,Hoerling,M.,Jha,B.,and Wang,W.,2010.Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification.Geophysical Research Letters,37:L21701,DOI:10.1029/2010GL045022.
Luo,D.,Chen,X.,Overland,J.,Simmonds,I.,Wu,Y.,and Zhang,P.,2019.Weakened potential vorticity barrier linked to recent winter Arctic sea-ice loss and mid-latitude cold extremes.Journal of Climate,DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0449.1.
Luo,D.,Xiao,Y.,Yao,Y.,Dai,A.,Simmonds,I.,and Franzke,C.L.E.,2016.Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies.Part I:Blocking-induced amplification.Journal of Climate,29:3925-3947.
Mori,M.,Watanabe,M.,Shiogama,H.,Inoue,J.,and Kimoto,M.,2014.Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades.Nature Geoscience,7(12):869-873.
Morison,J.,Kwok,R.,Peralta-Ferriz,C.,Alkire,M.,Rigor,I.,Andersen,R.,and Steele,M.,2012.Changing Arctic Ocean freshwater pathways.Nature,481(7379):66-70,DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10705.
Overland,J.E.,and Wang,M.,2016.Recent extreme Arctic temperatures are due to a split polar vortex.Journal of Climate,29(15):5609-5616,DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0320.1.
Proshutinsky,A.,and Krishfield,R.,2019.In a spin:New insights into the Beaufort Gyre.Eos,100:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EO119765.
Rahmstorf,S.,1994.Rapid climate transitions in a coupled oceanatmosphere model.Nature,372:82-85.
Rahmstorf,S.,1997.Risk of sea-change in the Atlantic.Nature,388:825-826.
Ronski,S.,and Budéus,G.,2005.Time series of winter convection in the Greenland Sea.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,110(C4):C04015,DOI:10.1029/2004JC002318.
Rothrock,D.A.,Yu,Y.,and Maykut,G.A.,1999.Thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover.Geophysical Research Letters,26(23):3469,DOI:10.1029/1999GL010863.
Schultz,C.,2013.August Arctic cyclone was strongest summer storm on record.Eos,Transactions American Geophysical Union,94(8):84.
Screen,J.A.,Deser,C.,and Simmonds,I.,2012.Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming.Geophysical Research Letters,39:L10709,DOI:10.1029/2012GL051598.
Serreze,M.,Drobot,S.,Gearheard,S.,Holland,M.,Maslanik,J.,Meier,W.,and Scambos,T.,2008.Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007.Eos,Transactions American Geophysical Union,89(2):13-14.
Simmonds,I.,and Keay,K.,2009.Extraordinary september Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008.Geophysical Research Letters,36:L19715,DOI:10.1029/2009GL039810.
Steele,M.,Morison,J.,Ermold,W.,Rigor,I.,Ortmeyer,M.,and Shimada,K.,2004.Circulation of summer Pacific halocline water in the Arctic Ocean.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,109:C02027,DOI:10.1029/2003JC002009.
Winton,M.,2013.Sea ice-Albedo feedback and nonlinear Arctic climate change.In:Arctic Sea Ice Decline:Observations,Projections,Mechanisms,and Implications.DeWeaver,E.T.,et al.,eds.,American Geophysical Union,Washington,D.C.,111-132.
Wu,B.,and Francis,J.A.,2019.Summer Arctic cold anomaly dynamically linked to east Asian heat waves.Journal of Climate,32:1137-1150.
Wu,B.,Handorf,D.,Dethloff,K.,Rinke,A.,and Hu,A.,2013.Winter weather patterns over northern Eurasia and Arctic sea ice loss.Monthly Weather Review,141(11):3786-3800.
Yamagami,A.,Matsueda,M.,and Tanaka,H.L.,2017.Extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016.Atmospheric Science Letters,18:307-314,DOI:10.1002/asl.757.
Yang,X.Y.,Fyfe,J.C.,and Flato,G.M.,2010.The role of poleward energy transport in Arctic temperature evolution.Geophysical Research Letters,37(14):L14803,DOI:10.1029/2010gl043934.
Zhao,J.P.,Wang,W.B.,Kang,S.H.,Yang,E.J.,and Kim,T.W.,2015.Optical properties around Mendeleev Ridge related to the physical features of water masses.Deep Sea Research II,120:43-51.
Zhao,J.P.,Barber,D.,Zhang,S.G.,Yang,Q.H.,Wang,X.Y.,and Xie,H.J.,2018.Record low sea-ice concentration in the central Arctic during summer 2010.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,35(1):104-113,https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7066-6.
Zhong,W.,Steele,M.,Zhang,J.,and Zhao,J.,2018.Greater role of geostrophic currents in Ekman dynamics in the western Arctic Ocean as a mechanism for Beaufort Gyre Stabilization.Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans,123:149-165,https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013282.