火箭弹下投探测台风气象参数新技术及初步试验
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摘要
与飞机探测台风的技术路线不同,中国气象局上海台风研究所联合中国航天科工集团第四研究院,历时3年完成了一种基于火箭弹的台风下投探测新技术的设计和研制.2015年10月3日23时00分(北京时),首枚台风探测试验火箭弹在海南省万宁市试射成功,6 min内即将携带的多枚下投式探空仪"精准"送入200 km之外的强台风"彩虹"内核区域.与车载GPS探空等资料的初步比对分析表明,实时传回的火箭弹下投探测资料质量可靠.试验的成功,为快速而精准地获取台风内部(不同区域、同时刻)精细结构特征提供了有效的直接观测手段,也为实现基于预报的台风目标敏感性观测提供了新途径.
This study presents a new technique for typhoon observations that is based on dropsondes launched by long-distance rockets instead of research aircraft. This technology was developed by Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration in collaboration with China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation in the past three years. On October 3, 2015, this meteorological rocket was successfully launched for the first time into an offshore strong typhoon(Mujigae, 2015) located east of Hainan Island. Four dropsondes were subsequently deployed within 6 min by the rocket when it flew into the inner core of Mujigae from the launching city, Wanning in Hainan Province that was located 200 km away from the storm. Real-time data from the dropsondes were sent back to the observation station on the ground. The detailed profiles of wind, temperature and humidity were obtained, showing high quality according to comparisons with the near collocated GPS radio-sondes data. These dropsonde profiles captured some fine-scale wind structure in the Typhoon Mujigae with may be related to large eddies. This field experiment described in this study implied a potential use of this new dropsondes-deployment technique for future TC research and operation. The success of the field campaign with rocket-carrying dropsondes could provide an effective and direct observation technique for rapid and accurate access to the fine-scale structure of typhoon interior(different areas, but at the same time), and provide a new way to achieve the typhoon targeting sensitivity analysis related to forecasting. Showing the advantages of long-range, high-quality and high-precision, this new technique, when deployed from high altitudes could improve TC model initial condition and provide accurate estimates of storm intensity of offshore typhoons, resulting in improved operational TC track and intensity predictions, as proved by previous studies that used aircraft-deployed dropsondes. Under the support of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP) and World Meteorology Organization(WMO) Typhoon Committee, STI together with HKO organized the Experiment of Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area(EXOTICCA) as an international cooperation project. This project carried out field experiments using rocket-platform sounding detection technology and other new typhoon field detection utilities. In the coming few years, EXOTICCA will also implement observations using man aircraft, unman aircraft, long-distance rockets and GPS sounding in South China Sea. It is believed that the new rocket deployment technology presented in this study when used in future field experiment will improve the track and intensity forecasts of typhoons.
This study presents a new technique for typhoon observations that is based on dropsondes launched by long-distance rockets instead of research aircraft. This technology was developed by Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration in collaboration with China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation in the past three years. On October 3, 2015, this meteorological rocket was successfully launched for the first time into an offshore strong typhoon(Mujigae, 2015) located east of Hainan Island. Four dropsondes were subsequently deployed within 6 min by the rocket when it flew into the inner core of Mujigae from the launching city, Wanning in Hainan Province that was located 200 km away from the storm. Real-time data from the dropsondes were sent back to the observation station on the ground. The detailed profiles of wind, temperature and humidity were obtained, showing high quality according to comparisons with the near collocated GPS radio-sondes data. These dropsonde profiles captured some fine-scale wind structure in the Typhoon Mujigae with may be related to large eddies. This field experiment described in this study implied a potential use of this new dropsondes-deployment technique for future TC research and operation. The success of the field campaign with rocket-carrying dropsondes could provide an effective and direct observation technique for rapid and accurate access to the fine-scale structure of typhoon interior(different areas, but at the same time), and provide a new way to achieve the typhoon targeting sensitivity analysis related to forecasting. Showing the advantages of long-range, high-quality and high-precision, this new technique, when deployed from high altitudes could improve TC model initial condition and provide accurate estimates of storm intensity of offshore typhoons, resulting in improved operational TC track and intensity predictions, as proved by previous studies that used aircraft-deployed dropsondes. Under the support of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP) and World Meteorology Organization(WMO) Typhoon Committee, STI together with HKO organized the Experiment of Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area(EXOTICCA) as an international cooperation project. This project carried out field experiments using rocket-platform sounding detection technology and other new typhoon field detection utilities. In the coming few years, EXOTICCA will also implement observations using man aircraft, unman aircraft, long-distance rockets and GPS sounding in South China Sea. It is believed that the new rocket deployment technology presented in this study when used in future field experiment will improve the track and intensity forecasts of typhoons.
引文
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4 Xu Y L,Han G R,Ma S H,et al.The analysis and discussion on operational forecast errors of super typhoon Muifa(1109)(in Chinese).Meteorol Monthly,2011,37:1196–1205[许映龙,韩桂荣,麻素红,等.1109号超强台风“梅花”预报误差分析及思考.气象,2011,37 :1196–1205]
5 Wang J H,Young K,Hock T,et al.A long-term,high-quality,high-vertical-resolution GPS dropsonde dataset for hurricane and other studies.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2014,96:961–973
6 Aberson S D,Franklin J L.Impact on hurricane track and intensity forecasts of GPS dropwindsonde observations from the first-season flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,1999,80:421–427
7 Wu C C,Lin P H,Aberson S,et al.Dropwindsonde observations for typhoon surveillance near the Taiwan region(DOTSTAR):An overview.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2005,86:787–790
8 Rogers R,Aberson S,Black M,et al.The intensity forecasting experiment:A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2006,87:1523–1537
9 Rogers R,Aberson S,Aksoy A,et al.NOAA’s hurricane intensity forecasting experiment:A progress report.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2013,94:859–882
10 Braun S A,Newman P A,Heymsfield G M,et al.NASA’s hurricane and severe storm sentinel(HS3)investigation.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2016,97:2085–2102
11 Guimond S R,Heymsfield G M,Reasor P D,et al.The rapid intensification of Hurricane Karl(2010):New remote sensing observations of convective bursts from the Global Hawk platform.J Atmos Sci,2016,73:3617–3639
12 Creasey R L,Elsberry R L.Tropical cyclone center positions from sequences of HDSS sondes deployed along high-altitude overpasses.Weather Forecast,2017,32:317–325
13 Marks F D,Black P G,Montgomery M T,et al.Structure of the eye and eyewall of Hurricane Hugo(1989).Monthly Weather Rev,2008,136 :1237–1259
14 Hock T F,Franklin J L.The NCAR GPS dropwindsonde.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,1999,80:407–420
1)Lei X T,Lei M,Zhao B K,et al.Preliminary evaluation of the first rocket-deployed dropsonde observations in a tropical cyclone:A project EXOTICCA case study in STY Mujigae(2015).
2 Duan Y H,Chen L S,Xu Y L,et al.The status and suggestions of the improvement in the typhoon observation forecasting and warning systems in China(in Chinese).China Eng Sci,2012,9:4–9[端义宏,陈联寿,许映龙,等.我国台风监测预报预警体系的现状及建议.中国工程科学,2012,9:4–9]
3 Xu Y L,Zhang L,Gao S Z.The advances and discussions on China operational typhoon forecasting(in Chines).Meteorol Monthly,2010,36:43–49[许映龙,张玲,高拴柱.我国台风预报业务的现状及思考.气象,2010,36:43–49]
4 Xu Y L,Han G R,Ma S H,et al.The analysis and discussion on operational forecast errors of super typhoon Muifa(1109)(in Chinese).Meteorol Monthly,2011,37:1196–1205[许映龙,韩桂荣,麻素红,等.1109号超强台风“梅花”预报误差分析及思考.气象,2011,37 :1196–1205]
5 Wang J H,Young K,Hock T,et al.A long-term,high-quality,high-vertical-resolution GPS dropsonde dataset for hurricane and other studies.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2014,96:961–973
6 Aberson S D,Franklin J L.Impact on hurricane track and intensity forecasts of GPS dropwindsonde observations from the first-season flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,1999,80:421–427
7 Wu C C,Lin P H,Aberson S,et al.Dropwindsonde observations for typhoon surveillance near the Taiwan region(DOTSTAR):An overview.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2005,86:787–790
8 Rogers R,Aberson S,Black M,et al.The intensity forecasting experiment:A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2006,87:1523–1537
9 Rogers R,Aberson S,Aksoy A,et al.NOAA’s hurricane intensity forecasting experiment:A progress report.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2013,94:859–882
10 Braun S A,Newman P A,Heymsfield G M,et al.NASA’s hurricane and severe storm sentinel(HS3)investigation.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,2016,97:2085–2102
11 Guimond S R,Heymsfield G M,Reasor P D,et al.The rapid intensification of Hurricane Karl(2010):New remote sensing observations of convective bursts from the Global Hawk platform.J Atmos Sci,2016,73:3617–3639
12 Creasey R L,Elsberry R L.Tropical cyclone center positions from sequences of HDSS sondes deployed along high-altitude overpasses.Weather Forecast,2017,32:317–325
13 Marks F D,Black P G,Montgomery M T,et al.Structure of the eye and eyewall of Hurricane Hugo(1989).Monthly Weather Rev,2008,136 :1237–1259
14 Hock T F,Franklin J L.The NCAR GPS dropwindsonde.Bull Amer Meteorol Soc,1999,80:407–420
1)Lei X T,Lei M,Zhao B K,et al.Preliminary evaluation of the first rocket-deployed dropsonde observations in a tropical cyclone:A project EXOTICCA case study in STY Mujigae(2015).