摘要
为研究突发事件应急处置过程中关键官员的决策行为,充实面向高层官员的决策行为实证研究方法,提出基于"情景-应对"数据的高层官员决策行为分析框架。通过设置情景、决策者、决策过程和决策变量以及变量间的作用关系建立框架运行理论内核,从情景选择到决策样本"生成→采集→处理→分析"各环节搭建框架支持完成高层官员决策行为的研究。通过某高层官员地震应急决策模拟演练实例,验证该分析框架的有效性。研究结果表明:基于"情景-应对"数据的分析框架可实现对高层官员决策行为的实证研究,可优化开发以支持更多元化的研究。
In order to study the decision-making behavior of key officials in the emergency response process,and enrich the empirical research methods of decision-making behavior for the senior officials,an analysis framework for the decision-making behavior of senior officials based on the scenario-response data was put forward. The theoretical core of framework running was established through setting the variables of scenarios,decision makers,decision-making process and decision-making and their interaction relationship,then the framework was built by all links from scenario selection to the generating,collecting,processing and analysis of decision-making samples,so as to support the study on the decision-making behavior of senior officials. Finally,a simulation drill on the emergency decision-making of a certain earthquake was conducted to collect the decision-making samples of senior officials,and a preliminary analysis was completed under the framework to verify the effectiveness of the analysis framework.
引文
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