人口老龄化与宏观经济关系的探讨
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摘要
随着生育率的下降和平均预期寿命的提高,全球将不可逆转地进入老龄化社会。作为最大的发展中国家,中国正在进入持续40年的高速老龄化时期。中国多数人的观点认为人口老龄化会抑制中国经济的增长,甚至会导致经济的衰退。美国也同样面临老龄化的问题,但是美国国家科学院的研究报告却对美国人口老龄化与宏观经济关系做出了不一样的结论。人口老龄化对政府开支会有显著影响,但对劳动生产率和创新的影响很小,对资产价格也不会有大的影响。老龄化导致的私人资产积累甚至有可能对经济产生积极作用。整体来说,人口老龄化对生活水平的影响是有限的,对于整个宏观经济的影响是温和的。这些观点和结论对中国人口老龄化与宏观经济关系的探讨具有重要启发和借鉴。
Driven by decreasing fertility along with improving life expectancy,the world is entering an irreversible aging society. As a developing country with the largest population,China will be experiencing a sustained and rapid aging in the next 40 years. It is widely held that aging would inhibit the economic growth of China,leading even to recession. While the United States is also facing the aging problem,a research report prepared by the US National Academy of Sciences has reached different conclusions about the impact of aging on macro-economy. Population aging would have a significant impact on government expenditure; however its impact would be very small on labor productivity,innovation and asset prices. Accumulation of private assets due to aging may even have a positive effect on the economy. Overall,the impact of aging on living standards is limited,and the overall macroeconomic impact is moderate. These views and conclusions about the relationship between aging and macro-economy have important enlightenments and implications for the related ageing studies in China.
Driven by decreasing fertility along with improving life expectancy,the world is entering an irreversible aging society. As a developing country with the largest population,China will be experiencing a sustained and rapid aging in the next 40 years. It is widely held that aging would inhibit the economic growth of China,leading even to recession. While the United States is also facing the aging problem,a research report prepared by the US National Academy of Sciences has reached different conclusions about the impact of aging on macro-economy. Population aging would have a significant impact on government expenditure; however its impact would be very small on labor productivity,innovation and asset prices. Accumulation of private assets due to aging may even have a positive effect on the economy. Overall,the impact of aging on living standards is limited,and the overall macroeconomic impact is moderate. These views and conclusions about the relationship between aging and macro-economy have important enlightenments and implications for the related ageing studies in China.
引文
1 Avolio B.J.and Waldman D.A.1994.Variations in Cognitive,Perceptual,and Psychomotor Abilities Across the Working Life Span:Examining the Effects of Race,Sex,Experience,Education,and Occupational Type.Psychology and Aging 3:430-442.
2 Boersch-Supan A.,Duezguen I.and Weiss M.2008.Labor Productivity in an Aging Society.In D.Broeders S.Eijffinger and A.Houben(Eds.),Frontiers in Pension Finance and Reform.Cheltenham,U.K.:Edward Elgar:83-96.
3 Boersch-Supan A.and Weiss M.2011.Productivity and Age:Evidence from Work Teams at the Assembly Line.MEA Discussion Paper 148-2007.Mannheim,Germany:Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging.Available:http://www.mea.uni-mannheim.de/uploads/user_mea_discussionpapers/1057_MEA-DP_148-2007.pdf[March 2012].
4 Carneiro P.and Lee S.2011.Trends in Quality-adjusted Skill Premia in the United States,1960-2000.American Economic Review6:2309-2349.
5 Chai J.,Horneff W.,Maurer R.and Mitchell O.S.2011.Optimal Portfolio Choice over He Life Cycle with Flexible Work,Endogenous Retirement,and Lifetime Payouts.Review of Finance 4:875-907.
6 Cutler D.M.,Poterba J.M.,Sheiner L.M.and Summers L.H.1990.An Aging Society:Opportunity or Challenge?”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:1-73.
7 Gruber J.,Milligan K.S.and Wise D.A.2009.Introduction and Summary.In J.Gruber and D.A.Wise(Eds.),Social Security Programs and Retirement Programs Around the World:The Relationship to Youth Employment.Chicago:University of Chicago Press:1-45.
8 Government Accountability Office(GAO).2010.Social Security Reform.Raising the Retirement Ages Would Have Implications for Older Workers and SSA Disability Rolls.GAO-11-125.Available:http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11125.pdf[December 2011].
9 Jones B.F.2009.The Burden of Knowledge and the Death of the Renaissance Man:Is Innovation Getting Harder?Review of Economic Studies1:283-317.
10 Jones C.I.and Romer P.M.2010.The New Kaldor Facts:Ideas,Institutions,Population,and Human Capital.American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics 1:224-245.
11 Jones B.F.2010.Age and Great Invention.The Review of Economics and Statistics 1:1-14.
12 Kotlikoff L.J.and Wise D.A.1989.Employee Retirement and a Firm’s Pension Plan.In D.A.Wise(Ed.),The Economics of Aging.Chicago:University of Chicago Press:279-334.
13 Lehman H.C.1953.Age and Achievement.Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press.
14 Levine P.B.and Mitchell O.S.1988.The Baby Boom’s Legacy:Relative Wages in the Twenty-First Century.American Economic Review 2:66-69.
15 Martins P.,Novo A.and Portugal P.2009.Increasing the Legal Retirement Age:the Impact on Wages,Worker Flows and Firm Performance.IZA Discussion 1:4287.
16 Mc Gill D.,Brown K.N.,Haley J.J.,Schieber S.and Warshawsky M.J.2010.Fundamentals of Private Pensions.Oxford,U.K.:Oxford University Press.
17 Mitchell O.S.and Moore J.1998.Can Americans Afford to Retire?New Evidence on Retirement Saving Adequacy.Journal of Risk and Insurance 3:371-400.
18 Mitchell O.S.,Piggott J.,Sherris M.and Yow S.2006.Financial Innovations for an Aging World.In C.Kent,A.Park,and D.Rees(Eds.),Demography and Financial Markets.Sydney:Pegasus Press:299-336.
19 National Research Council(NRC).1990.On Time to the Doctorate:A Study of the Length-ening Time to Completion for Doctorates in Science and Engineering.H.Tuckman,S.Coyle,and Y.Bae(Eds.).Washington,DC:National Academy Press.
20 NRC.1998.Trends in the Early Careers of Life Scientists.Washington,DC:National Academy Press.
21 National Research Council.2012.Aging and the Macroeconomy:Long-Term Implications of an Older Population.Available:http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13465.pdf[December 2012].
22 Purcell P.2009.Income of Americans Aged 65 and Older,1968 to 2008.Washington,DC:Congressional Research Service.
23 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD).2009.Life-Expectancy Links.The Quiet Revolution in Pension Policy.Available:http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/41/24/39468250.pdf[January 2012].
24 Rubinstein Y.and Weiss Y.2006.Post Schooling Wage Growth:Investment,Search and Learning.In E.A.Hanushek and F.Welch(Eds.),Handbook of the Economics of Education 1.Chicago:Elsevier Science:1-67.
25 Schieber S.2004.Retirement Income Adequacy:Good News or Bad?Benefits Quarterly,Fourth Quarter,27-39.
26 Scholz J.K.,Seshadri A.and Khitatrakun S.2006.Are Americans Saving“Optimally”for Retirement?Journal of Political Economy 4:607-643.
27 Simonton D.K.1988.Age and Outstanding Achievement:What Do We Know After a Century of Research?Psychological Bulletin:251-267.
28 Simonton D.K.1991.Career Landmarks in Science:Individual Differences and Interdisciplinary Contrasts.Developmental Psychology 27:119-130.
29 Tyers R Golley J and Bain I.2006.Projected Economic Growth in China and India:The Role of Demographic Change(No.2006-477).Australian National University,College of Business and Economics,School of Economics.
30 United Nations.2001.World Population Aging:1950-2050.New York:United Nations Publications.
31 陈彦斌,郭豫媚,姚一旻.人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响.金融研究,2014a;1:71-84Chen Yanbin,Guo Yumei and Yao Yimin.2014a.The Impact of Population Aging on China’s High Savings Rate,Journal of Financial Research 1:71-84.
32 陈彦斌等.人口老龄化对中国宏观经济的影响.科学出版社,2014b:1-178Chen Yanbin et.al.2014b.The Effects of Population Aging on China’s Macro Economy,Science Press:1-178
33 侯立平.论人口老龄化的经济影.中共宁波市委党校学报,2007;3:50-54Hou Liping.2007.The Economic Lmpact of an Ageing Population.Journal of the Party School of CPC Ningbo Municipal Committee 3:50-54.
34 陈彦斌.人口老龄化不会对经济产生灾难性影响.光明日报(第11版),2013-03-22Chen Yanbin.2013.Population Aging will not Cause a Disastrous Impact on The Economy.Guang Ming Daily.March,22 :Page 11.
35 苏剑.人口老龄化对经济发展的影响不可小视.光明日报(第11版),2013-03-22Su Jian.2013.Population Aging has a Great Impact on The Economic Development.Guang Ming Daily.March,22:Page11 .
36郭熙保,李通屏,袁蓓.人口老龄化对中国经济的持久性影响及其对策建议.经济理论与经济管理,2013;2:43-50Guo Xibao,Li Tongping and Yuan Pei.2013.The Permanent Impacts of Population Aging on Chinese Economy and Its Policy Suggestions.Economic Theory and Business Management 2:43-50.
37 王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素.人口研究,2004;5:2-11Wang Dewen,Cai Fang and Zhang Xuehui.2004.Saving and Growth Effects of Demographic Transition:Population Factor in the Sustainability of China’s Economic Growth.Population Research 5:2-11.
38 王刚.人口老龄化对居民储蓄的影响分析——以北京市为例.经济问题探索,2006;9:143-148Wang Gang.2006.Effects of Population Aging on Household Saving.Inquiry into Economic Issues 9:143-148.
39 熊必俊.“富国俱乐部”如何应对老龄化.中国社会保障,2002;9:21Xiong Bijun.2002.How Do"Rich Countries"Cope with Aging.China Social Security 9:21.
40 杨道兵,陆杰华.我国劳动力老化及其对社会经济发展影响的分析.人口学刊,2006;1:7-12Yang Daobin and Lu Jiehua.2006.Effects of Labor Aging on Socio-economic Development.Population Journal 1:7-12.
41 杨雪,侯力.我国人口老龄化对经济社会的宏观和微观影响研究.人口学刊,2011;4:46-53Yang Xue and Hou Li.2011.A Study on the Macro and Micro Effects of Population Aging to Economic and Social Development in China.Population Journal 4:46-53.
42 赵志泉.后危机时代国际退休年龄制度改革及其对我国的启示.改革与战略,2012;5:209-212Zhao Zhiquan.2012.The International Retirement System Reform and Its Implications for China in Post-crisis Era.Reformation&Strategy 5:209-212.
2 Boersch-Supan A.,Duezguen I.and Weiss M.2008.Labor Productivity in an Aging Society.In D.Broeders S.Eijffinger and A.Houben(Eds.),Frontiers in Pension Finance and Reform.Cheltenham,U.K.:Edward Elgar:83-96.
3 Boersch-Supan A.and Weiss M.2011.Productivity and Age:Evidence from Work Teams at the Assembly Line.MEA Discussion Paper 148-2007.Mannheim,Germany:Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging.Available:http://www.mea.uni-mannheim.de/uploads/user_mea_discussionpapers/1057_MEA-DP_148-2007.pdf[March 2012].
4 Carneiro P.and Lee S.2011.Trends in Quality-adjusted Skill Premia in the United States,1960-2000.American Economic Review6:2309-2349.
5 Chai J.,Horneff W.,Maurer R.and Mitchell O.S.2011.Optimal Portfolio Choice over He Life Cycle with Flexible Work,Endogenous Retirement,and Lifetime Payouts.Review of Finance 4:875-907.
6 Cutler D.M.,Poterba J.M.,Sheiner L.M.and Summers L.H.1990.An Aging Society:Opportunity or Challenge?”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:1-73.
7 Gruber J.,Milligan K.S.and Wise D.A.2009.Introduction and Summary.In J.Gruber and D.A.Wise(Eds.),Social Security Programs and Retirement Programs Around the World:The Relationship to Youth Employment.Chicago:University of Chicago Press:1-45.
8 Government Accountability Office(GAO).2010.Social Security Reform.Raising the Retirement Ages Would Have Implications for Older Workers and SSA Disability Rolls.GAO-11-125.Available:http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11125.pdf[December 2011].
9 Jones B.F.2009.The Burden of Knowledge and the Death of the Renaissance Man:Is Innovation Getting Harder?Review of Economic Studies1:283-317.
10 Jones C.I.and Romer P.M.2010.The New Kaldor Facts:Ideas,Institutions,Population,and Human Capital.American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics 1:224-245.
11 Jones B.F.2010.Age and Great Invention.The Review of Economics and Statistics 1:1-14.
12 Kotlikoff L.J.and Wise D.A.1989.Employee Retirement and a Firm’s Pension Plan.In D.A.Wise(Ed.),The Economics of Aging.Chicago:University of Chicago Press:279-334.
13 Lehman H.C.1953.Age and Achievement.Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press.
14 Levine P.B.and Mitchell O.S.1988.The Baby Boom’s Legacy:Relative Wages in the Twenty-First Century.American Economic Review 2:66-69.
15 Martins P.,Novo A.and Portugal P.2009.Increasing the Legal Retirement Age:the Impact on Wages,Worker Flows and Firm Performance.IZA Discussion 1:4287.
16 Mc Gill D.,Brown K.N.,Haley J.J.,Schieber S.and Warshawsky M.J.2010.Fundamentals of Private Pensions.Oxford,U.K.:Oxford University Press.
17 Mitchell O.S.and Moore J.1998.Can Americans Afford to Retire?New Evidence on Retirement Saving Adequacy.Journal of Risk and Insurance 3:371-400.
18 Mitchell O.S.,Piggott J.,Sherris M.and Yow S.2006.Financial Innovations for an Aging World.In C.Kent,A.Park,and D.Rees(Eds.),Demography and Financial Markets.Sydney:Pegasus Press:299-336.
19 National Research Council(NRC).1990.On Time to the Doctorate:A Study of the Length-ening Time to Completion for Doctorates in Science and Engineering.H.Tuckman,S.Coyle,and Y.Bae(Eds.).Washington,DC:National Academy Press.
20 NRC.1998.Trends in the Early Careers of Life Scientists.Washington,DC:National Academy Press.
21 National Research Council.2012.Aging and the Macroeconomy:Long-Term Implications of an Older Population.Available:http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13465.pdf[December 2012].
22 Purcell P.2009.Income of Americans Aged 65 and Older,1968 to 2008.Washington,DC:Congressional Research Service.
23 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD).2009.Life-Expectancy Links.The Quiet Revolution in Pension Policy.Available:http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/41/24/39468250.pdf[January 2012].
24 Rubinstein Y.and Weiss Y.2006.Post Schooling Wage Growth:Investment,Search and Learning.In E.A.Hanushek and F.Welch(Eds.),Handbook of the Economics of Education 1.Chicago:Elsevier Science:1-67.
25 Schieber S.2004.Retirement Income Adequacy:Good News or Bad?Benefits Quarterly,Fourth Quarter,27-39.
26 Scholz J.K.,Seshadri A.and Khitatrakun S.2006.Are Americans Saving“Optimally”for Retirement?Journal of Political Economy 4:607-643.
27 Simonton D.K.1988.Age and Outstanding Achievement:What Do We Know After a Century of Research?Psychological Bulletin:251-267.
28 Simonton D.K.1991.Career Landmarks in Science:Individual Differences and Interdisciplinary Contrasts.Developmental Psychology 27:119-130.
29 Tyers R Golley J and Bain I.2006.Projected Economic Growth in China and India:The Role of Demographic Change(No.2006-477).Australian National University,College of Business and Economics,School of Economics.
30 United Nations.2001.World Population Aging:1950-2050.New York:United Nations Publications.
31 陈彦斌,郭豫媚,姚一旻.人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响.金融研究,2014a;1:71-84Chen Yanbin,Guo Yumei and Yao Yimin.2014a.The Impact of Population Aging on China’s High Savings Rate,Journal of Financial Research 1:71-84.
32 陈彦斌等.人口老龄化对中国宏观经济的影响.科学出版社,2014b:1-178Chen Yanbin et.al.2014b.The Effects of Population Aging on China’s Macro Economy,Science Press:1-178
33 侯立平.论人口老龄化的经济影.中共宁波市委党校学报,2007;3:50-54Hou Liping.2007.The Economic Lmpact of an Ageing Population.Journal of the Party School of CPC Ningbo Municipal Committee 3:50-54.
34 陈彦斌.人口老龄化不会对经济产生灾难性影响.光明日报(第11版),2013-03-22Chen Yanbin.2013.Population Aging will not Cause a Disastrous Impact on The Economy.Guang Ming Daily.March,22 :Page 11.
35 苏剑.人口老龄化对经济发展的影响不可小视.光明日报(第11版),2013-03-22Su Jian.2013.Population Aging has a Great Impact on The Economic Development.Guang Ming Daily.March,22:Page11 .
36郭熙保,李通屏,袁蓓.人口老龄化对中国经济的持久性影响及其对策建议.经济理论与经济管理,2013;2:43-50Guo Xibao,Li Tongping and Yuan Pei.2013.The Permanent Impacts of Population Aging on Chinese Economy and Its Policy Suggestions.Economic Theory and Business Management 2:43-50.
37 王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素.人口研究,2004;5:2-11Wang Dewen,Cai Fang and Zhang Xuehui.2004.Saving and Growth Effects of Demographic Transition:Population Factor in the Sustainability of China’s Economic Growth.Population Research 5:2-11.
38 王刚.人口老龄化对居民储蓄的影响分析——以北京市为例.经济问题探索,2006;9:143-148Wang Gang.2006.Effects of Population Aging on Household Saving.Inquiry into Economic Issues 9:143-148.
39 熊必俊.“富国俱乐部”如何应对老龄化.中国社会保障,2002;9:21Xiong Bijun.2002.How Do"Rich Countries"Cope with Aging.China Social Security 9:21.
40 杨道兵,陆杰华.我国劳动力老化及其对社会经济发展影响的分析.人口学刊,2006;1:7-12Yang Daobin and Lu Jiehua.2006.Effects of Labor Aging on Socio-economic Development.Population Journal 1:7-12.
41 杨雪,侯力.我国人口老龄化对经济社会的宏观和微观影响研究.人口学刊,2011;4:46-53Yang Xue and Hou Li.2011.A Study on the Macro and Micro Effects of Population Aging to Economic and Social Development in China.Population Journal 4:46-53.
42 赵志泉.后危机时代国际退休年龄制度改革及其对我国的启示.改革与战略,2012;5:209-212Zhao Zhiquan.2012.The International Retirement System Reform and Its Implications for China in Post-crisis Era.Reformation&Strategy 5:209-212.