强台风环境下配电线路故障概率评估方法
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摘要
针对强台风环境下配电线路故障问题,提出了一种台风到来前配电线路故障概率评估方法。首先,根据历史灾害损失数据拟合强台风环境下的杆塔故障概率曲线;其次,利用流体力学软件对配电网所在区域进行风荷载仿真计算;最后,在真实台风环境下根据台风实时气象信息计算配电网所在区域的风荷载,并计算配电线路整体故障概率。算例验证了强台风环境下该方法对配电网线路故障概率评估的合理性和实用性,该方法可为中国东南沿海配电网台风期间应急预警及防灾减灾工作提供借鉴参考。
An outage probability evaluation method of distribution line under typhoon is proposed in this paper. First, the probability curve of the tower fault of the 10 kV distribution line is fitted according to the historical typical typhoon data. Secondly, the wind load in the area of the distribution network is simulated by the hydrodynamics software. Finally, based on the wind load calculated from the real-time meteorological information under real typhoon environment, the overall failure probability of the distribution lines are calculated. The simulation results verify the rationality and practicability of the method for the probability evaluation of the distribution network fault in the strong typhoon environment. The method can be used as a reference for emergency warning and disaster prevention of distribution network in southeastern coastal areas of China during typhoons.
An outage probability evaluation method of distribution line under typhoon is proposed in this paper. First, the probability curve of the tower fault of the 10 kV distribution line is fitted according to the historical typical typhoon data. Secondly, the wind load in the area of the distribution network is simulated by the hydrodynamics software. Finally, based on the wind load calculated from the real-time meteorological information under real typhoon environment, the overall failure probability of the distribution lines are calculated. The simulation results verify the rationality and practicability of the method for the probability evaluation of the distribution network fault in the strong typhoon environment. The method can be used as a reference for emergency warning and disaster prevention of distribution network in southeastern coastal areas of China during typhoons.
引文
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[9] HO K L, HSU Y Y, CHEN C F, et al. Short term load forecasting of Taiwan power system using a knowledge-based expert system[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1990, 5(4):1214-1221.
[10] JAVANBAKHT P, MOHAGHEGHI S. A risk-averse securityconstrained optimal power flow for a power grid subject to hurricanes[J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 2014, 116:408-418.
[11] GAO W, ZHOU R, ZHAO D. Heuristic failure prediction model of transmission line under natural disasters[J]. IET Generation Transmission&Distribution, 2017, 11(4):935-942.
[12] YUAN W, WANG J, QIU F, et al. Robust optimization-based resilient distribution network planning against natural disasters[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2016, 7(6):2817-2826.
[13] KWASINSKI A, KRISHNAMURTHY V,SONG J, et al.Availability evaluation of micro-grids for resistant power supply during natural disasters[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2012,3(4):2007-2018.
[14] CONDREN J, GEDRA T W, DAMRONGKULKAMJORN P.Optimal power flow with expected security costs[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2006, 21(2):541-547.
[15] CONDREN J, GEDRA T W. Expected-security-cost optimal power flow with small-signal stability constraints[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2006, 21(4):1736-1743.
[16] HE J, CHENG L, KIRSCHEN D S, et al. Optimising the balance between security and economy on a probabilistic basis[J]. IET Generation Transmission&Distribution, 2010, 4(12):1275-1287.
[17] VESTERSTROM J, THOMSEN R. A comparative study of differential evolution, particle swarm optimization, and evolutionary algorithms on numerical benchmark problems[C]//Proceedings of the2004 Congress on Evolutionery Computation, Portland:IEEE, 2004:1980-1987.
[18] WANG Y, ROSOWSKY D V. Joint distribution model for prediction of hurricane wind speed and size[J]. Structural Safety, 2012, 35:40-51.
[19]陈莹,王松岩,陈彬,等.台风环境下考虑地理高程信息的输电通道结构失效故障概率评估方法[J].电网技术,2018, 42(7):2295-2302.CHEN Ying, WANG Songyan, CHEN Bin, et al. Evaluation of the failure probability of power transimmision corridors during typhoons using digital elevation information[J]. Power System Technology,2018,42(7):2295-2302.
[20]王佳明,刘文颖,张建立.恶劣天气下的复杂电网连锁故障在线预警[J].电网技术,2012, 36(5):239-244.WANG Jiaming, LIU Wenying, ZHANG Jianli. Online early warningmodel for cascading failure in complex power grid under severe weather[J]. Power System Technology, 2012, 36(5):239-244.
[21]李彦斌,韩颖,张嵘,等.气象因素对电力安全事故影响的模型[J].电网技术,2013, 37(6):1683-1687.LI Yanbin, HAN Ying, ZHANG Rong, et al. Research on impact model of meteorological factors on the power accidents[J]. Power System Technology, 2013, 37(6):1683-1687.
[2]潘峰,陈稼苗,聂建波,等.国内外规范输电线路铁塔风荷载特性对比[J].中国电力,2013, 46(4):37-42.PAN Feng, CHEN Jiamiao, NIE Jianbo, et al. Contrast study of wind load characteristics for transmission towers based foreign standards[J]. Electric Power, 2013, 46(4):37-42.
[3]钟万里,吴怡,王伟,等.脉动风场中输电线路振动分析[J].中国电力,2012,45(7):1-3.ZHONG Wanli, WU Yi, WANG Wei, et al. Analysis on fluctuating wind induced vibration for high-voltage transmission lines[J].Electric Power, 2012, 45(7):1-3.
[4]张宏杰,杨靖波,杨风利,等.台风风场参数对输电杆塔力学特性的影响[J].中国电力,2016, 48(2):41-47.ZHANG Hongjie, YANG Jingbo, YANG Fengli, et al. Study on the influence of typhoon wind parameters on mechanical characteristics of transmission tower[J]. Electric Power, 2016, 48(2):41-47.
[5]章东鸿,王振华.输电线路导地线阵风响应计算与比较[J].中国电力,2016,49(7):27-31.ZHANG Donghong, WANG Zhenhua. Computation and comparison for gust response of wires of transmission line[J]. Electric Power,2016, 49(7):27-31.
[6]姚棣荣,王镇铭.热带气旋路径客观预报方法的评估[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2001,28(3):349-354.YAO Dirong, WANG Zhenming. The assessment of objective forecast methods for tropical cyclone tracks[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University(Science Edition), 2001, 28(3):349-354.
[7]邹亮,任爱珠,徐峰,等.基于GIS空间分析的台风路径预测[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008, 48(12):2036-2040.ZOU Liang, REN Aizhu, XU Feng, et al. Typhoon track forecasting based on GIS spatial analyses[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2008, 48(12):2036-2040.
[8]余锦华,唐家翔,戴雨涵,等.我国台风路径业务预报误差及成因分析[J].气象,2012,38(6):695-700.YU Jinhua, TANG Jiaxiang, DAI Yuhan, et al. Analyses in errors and their causes of chinese typhoon track operational forecasts[J].Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(6):695-700.
[9] HO K L, HSU Y Y, CHEN C F, et al. Short term load forecasting of Taiwan power system using a knowledge-based expert system[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1990, 5(4):1214-1221.
[10] JAVANBAKHT P, MOHAGHEGHI S. A risk-averse securityconstrained optimal power flow for a power grid subject to hurricanes[J]. Electric Power Systems Research, 2014, 116:408-418.
[11] GAO W, ZHOU R, ZHAO D. Heuristic failure prediction model of transmission line under natural disasters[J]. IET Generation Transmission&Distribution, 2017, 11(4):935-942.
[12] YUAN W, WANG J, QIU F, et al. Robust optimization-based resilient distribution network planning against natural disasters[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2016, 7(6):2817-2826.
[13] KWASINSKI A, KRISHNAMURTHY V,SONG J, et al.Availability evaluation of micro-grids for resistant power supply during natural disasters[J]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2012,3(4):2007-2018.
[14] CONDREN J, GEDRA T W, DAMRONGKULKAMJORN P.Optimal power flow with expected security costs[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2006, 21(2):541-547.
[15] CONDREN J, GEDRA T W. Expected-security-cost optimal power flow with small-signal stability constraints[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2006, 21(4):1736-1743.
[16] HE J, CHENG L, KIRSCHEN D S, et al. Optimising the balance between security and economy on a probabilistic basis[J]. IET Generation Transmission&Distribution, 2010, 4(12):1275-1287.
[17] VESTERSTROM J, THOMSEN R. A comparative study of differential evolution, particle swarm optimization, and evolutionary algorithms on numerical benchmark problems[C]//Proceedings of the2004 Congress on Evolutionery Computation, Portland:IEEE, 2004:1980-1987.
[18] WANG Y, ROSOWSKY D V. Joint distribution model for prediction of hurricane wind speed and size[J]. Structural Safety, 2012, 35:40-51.
[19]陈莹,王松岩,陈彬,等.台风环境下考虑地理高程信息的输电通道结构失效故障概率评估方法[J].电网技术,2018, 42(7):2295-2302.CHEN Ying, WANG Songyan, CHEN Bin, et al. Evaluation of the failure probability of power transimmision corridors during typhoons using digital elevation information[J]. Power System Technology,2018,42(7):2295-2302.
[20]王佳明,刘文颖,张建立.恶劣天气下的复杂电网连锁故障在线预警[J].电网技术,2012, 36(5):239-244.WANG Jiaming, LIU Wenying, ZHANG Jianli. Online early warningmodel for cascading failure in complex power grid under severe weather[J]. Power System Technology, 2012, 36(5):239-244.
[21]李彦斌,韩颖,张嵘,等.气象因素对电力安全事故影响的模型[J].电网技术,2013, 37(6):1683-1687.LI Yanbin, HAN Ying, ZHANG Rong, et al. Research on impact model of meteorological factors on the power accidents[J]. Power System Technology, 2013, 37(6):1683-1687.