基于微震监测技术的突出危险性预警模型
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摘要
合理的微震预警指标及预警模型是利用微震监测技术进行突出危险性预测的依据。对现场实测微震监测数据进行对比分析,结果表明:微震能率与事件率相比更能反映实际情况,可以把能率作为主要指标,而事件率作为辅助指标,两者综合判断掘进面前方的突出危险性。基于微震预警指标近似服从正态分布和国外俄罗斯的微震预警判据,提出了微震预测突出的综合预警模型,2条判据2个方面,相互补充,并通过大量的现场数据,验证了其准确性。同时现场突出前后微震监测数据表明:突出事故发生时刻对应预警指标的最大值;突出事故发生之前,出现了10 d左右的平静期。
Reasonable micro-seismic early warning indicators and early warning model are the basis of coal and gas outburst prediction by using micro-seismic monitoring technology. By comparing the seismic monitoring data measured in field, the results show that the energy rate of micro-seismic can reflect reality better than event rate. The energy rate can be used as the main index, and the event rate can be used as the auxiliary index, both of which comprehensively evaluate the outburst danger in front of the driving face. Based on the approximate normal distribution of micro-seismic warning indicators and the Russian micro-seismic warning criterion, the comprehensive early warning model of micro-seismic prediction outburst is proposed, the two criteria of which contain two aspects and complement each other. Through a large number of field data, the accuracy of the comprehensive early warning model is verified. In addition, micro-seismic monitoring data before and after the outburst shows that the maximum value of the early warning index appears while the outburst occurs, and there is the quiet period of about 10 days before the accident.
Reasonable micro-seismic early warning indicators and early warning model are the basis of coal and gas outburst prediction by using micro-seismic monitoring technology. By comparing the seismic monitoring data measured in field, the results show that the energy rate of micro-seismic can reflect reality better than event rate. The energy rate can be used as the main index, and the event rate can be used as the auxiliary index, both of which comprehensively evaluate the outburst danger in front of the driving face. Based on the approximate normal distribution of micro-seismic warning indicators and the Russian micro-seismic warning criterion, the comprehensive early warning model of micro-seismic prediction outburst is proposed, the two criteria of which contain two aspects and complement each other. Through a large number of field data, the accuracy of the comprehensive early warning model is verified. In addition, micro-seismic monitoring data before and after the outburst shows that the maximum value of the early warning index appears while the outburst occurs, and there is the quiet period of about 10 days before the accident.
引文
[1]聂百胜,何学秋,王恩元,等.煤与瓦斯突出预测技术研究现状及发展趋势[J].中国安全科学学报,2003,13(6):43-46.
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[9]聂百胜,何学秋,王恩元,等.煤体剪切破坏过程电磁辐射与声发射研究[J].中国矿业大学学报,2002,31(6):65-67.
[10]曹树刚,刘延保,张立强.突出煤体变形破坏声发射特征的综合分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(S1):2794-2799.
[11]尹贤刚,李庶林,唐海燕,等.岩石破坏声发射平静期及其分形特征研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3383-3390.
[2]张伟民,周勇,王珂奇.声发射预测煤与瓦斯突出危险性方法及指标的研究[J].煤矿安全,1999,30(5):2.
[3]李绍泉.近距离煤层群煤与瓦斯突出机理及预警研究[D].北京:中国矿业大学(北京),2013.
[4]王栓林.煤与瓦斯突出危险性实时跟踪预测技术研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2009.
[5]苏燹.工作面突出危险性实时跟踪预测技术及装备的研究科学技术报告[R].重庆:煤炭科学研究总院重庆分院,2000.
[6]刘超.采动煤岩瓦斯动力灾害致灾机理及微震预警方法研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2011.
[7]李俊亮.声发射预测煤与瓦斯突出危险性技术研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2009.
[8]刘辉,陆菜平,窦林名,等.微震法在煤与瓦斯突出监测与预报中的应用[J].煤矿安全,2012,43(4):82.
[9]聂百胜,何学秋,王恩元,等.煤体剪切破坏过程电磁辐射与声发射研究[J].中国矿业大学学报,2002,31(6):65-67.
[10]曹树刚,刘延保,张立强.突出煤体变形破坏声发射特征的综合分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(S1):2794-2799.
[11]尹贤刚,李庶林,唐海燕,等.岩石破坏声发射平静期及其分形特征研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(S2):3383-3390.