配电自动化二次设备风险评估与检修决策研究
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摘要
数量庞大的配电自动化二次设备是维护配电自动化系统安全稳定运行的关键对象,通过对配电自动化二次设备风险点的识别和持续关注建立风险评估流程,根据设备的状态评分推算平均故障概率,从而计算综合风险损失和量化风险值。以风险损失和检修成本之和最小为优化目标,构建检修决策优化模型,综合考虑风险和成本费用两方面后,文中对检修计划给出了科学合理的排序,大幅降低二次设备的检修成本和因不合理检修可能导致的故障风险,实现配电自动化二次设备的精益化运维管理。
The large number of distribution automation secondary equipment is the key object to maintain the safe and stable operation of the distribution automation system. The risk assessment process is established through the identification and continuous attention to the risk points of the secondary automation of the distribution automation. The average fault is calculated according to the state score of the equipment probability,then calculate the comprehensive risk loss and quantitative risk value.Taking the minimum cost of risk and the cost of maintenance as the optimization target,to construct the maintenance optimization model of the maintenance decision-making,and the scientific and reasonable sorting of the maintenance plan is given considering both the risk and the cost. Significantly reduce the cost of maintenance of secondary equipment and unreasonable maintenance may lead to the risk of failure,to achieve better operation and maintenance management of secondary equipment.
The large number of distribution automation secondary equipment is the key object to maintain the safe and stable operation of the distribution automation system. The risk assessment process is established through the identification and continuous attention to the risk points of the secondary automation of the distribution automation. The average fault is calculated according to the state score of the equipment probability,then calculate the comprehensive risk loss and quantitative risk value.Taking the minimum cost of risk and the cost of maintenance as the optimization target,to construct the maintenance optimization model of the maintenance decision-making,and the scientific and reasonable sorting of the maintenance plan is given considering both the risk and the cost. Significantly reduce the cost of maintenance of secondary equipment and unreasonable maintenance may lead to the risk of failure,to achieve better operation and maintenance management of secondary equipment.
引文
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[18]彭建宇,李春来,刘皓明,等.分布式发电运维模式分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2016,18(2):21-25.PENG Jianyu,LI Chunlai,LIU Haoming,et al.Analysis on operation and maintenance modes for distributed generation[J].Power Demand Side Mangment,2016,18(2):21-25.
[19]杨晓辉,尹玉君,寇晓适.基于风险评估的特高压受端电网输电设备检修策略研究[J].电力工程技术,2017,36(2).YANG Xiaohui,YIN Yujun,KOU Xiaoshi.Research on the maintenance strategy of UHV receiving power grid transmission equipment based on risk assessment[J].Electric Power Engineering Technology,2017,36(2).
[20]刘顺桂,杨佳驹,王磊.考虑用户用电特性的基线负荷计算方法[J].电力需求侧管理,2016,18(3):17-22.LIU Shunjia,YANG Jiaju,WANG Lei.Baseline load calculation with considering customer different electrical characteristics.Power Demand Side Mangment,2016,18(3):17-22.
[2]许娟,王品,高锋,等.电力设备状态检修技术研究综述[J].电网技术.2000,24(8):48-52.XU Juan,WANG Pin,GAO Feng,et al.Survey of condition based maintenance technology for electric power equipment[J].Power System Technology,2000,24(8):48-52.
[3]MOHAMMADNEZHAO-SHOURKAEI H,ABIRI-JAHROMI A,FOTUHI-FIRUZABDA M.Incorporating service quality regulation in distribution system maintenance strategy[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2011,26(4):2495-2504.
[4]冯永青,吴文传,张伯明,等.基于可信性理论的电力系统运行风险评估:(二)理论基础[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(2):11-15,21.FENG Yongqing,WU Wenchuan,ZHANG Boming,et al.Power system operation risk assessment based on credibility theory:Part two theory fundament[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(2):11-15,21.
[5]潘乐真,张焰,俞国勤,等.状态检修决策中的电气设备故障率推算[J].电力自动化设备,2010,30(2):91-94.PAN Lezhen,ZHANG Yan,YU Guoqin,et al.Prediction of electrical equipment failure rate for condition-based maintenance decision-making[J].Electric Power Automation equipment,2010,30(2):91-94.
[6]马同涛,李存斌,王建军.配电网运行风险的动态评估组合模型[J].华东电力,2014,42(6):1109-1114.MA Tongtao,LI Cunbin,WANG Jianjun.Dynamic assessment combined model of power distribution operational risk[J].East China Electric Power,2014,42(6):1109-1114.
[7]吴姜,曹建东,张弛,等.二次设备量化评估中故障概率的计算方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2012,24(6):79-82.WU Jiang,CAO Jiandong,ZHANG Chi,et al.Calculation of failure probability in status assessment of secondary equipment[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2012,24(6):79-82.
[8]Q/GWD 645—2011配网设备状态评价导则[S].Q/GWD 645—2011 Guidelines of condition assess-ment for electric distribution network equipment[S].
[9]刘晓燕.基于全寿命周期管理的电力设备状态检修成本研究[J].江苏电机工程,2016,35(5),74-76.LIU Xiaoyan.Study on electrical equipment condition-based maintenance cost with life cycle cost theory[J].Jiangsu Electrical Engineering,2016,35(5),74-76.
[10]刘若溪,张建华,吴迪.基于风险理论的配电网静态安全性评估指标研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(15):91-95.LIU Ruoxi,ZHANG Jianhua,WU Di.Research on static security index of distribution network based on risk theory[J].Power System Protection and Control,2011,39(15):91-95.
[11]黄明辉,蔡泽祥,曹建东,等.电力系统二次设备风险评估模型和方法[J].广东电力,2012,25(2):5-8.HUANG Minghui,CAI Zexiang,CAO Jiandong,et al.Risk assessment model and method for secondary equipment in power system[J].Guang Dong Electric Power,2012,25(2):5-8.
[12]栗然,王飞飞,李增辉.基于风险评估的配电网检修决策优化[J].电力自动化设备,2013,33(11):1-8.LI Ran,WANG Feifei,LI Zenghui.Maintenance decision making optimization based on risk assessment for distribution system[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,33(11):1-8.
[13]秦建光,刘恒,陶文伟,等.电力系统二次设备状态检修策略[J].广东电力,2011,24(1):24-27.QIN Jianguang,LIU Heng,TAO Wenwei,et al.Statusoriented maintenance strategy for secondary equipment in power system[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2011,24(1):24-27.
[14]李存斌,李鹏,除龚曙.基于模糊数相似度的智能电网运营风险综合评价[J].华东电力,2012,40(9):1486-1489.LI Cunbin,LI Peng,CHU Gongshu.Comprehensive evaluation of operational risk of smart grid based on fuzzy number similarity[J].East China Electric Power,2012,40(9):1486-1489.
[15]霍明雷,刘艳,杨林.计及风险损失的配电设备检修方式选择[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(19):100-106.HUO Minglei,LIU Yan,YANG Lin.Maintenance mode selection of power distribution equipment considering the loss of risk[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(19):100-106.
[16]胡文堂,高胜友,鲁宗相,等.利用设备风险评估的检修策略优化[J].高电压技术,2010,36(11):2699-2704.HU Wentang,GAO Shengyou,LU Zongxiang,et al.Maintenance strategies optimization of equipment using risk assessment[J].High Voltage Engineering,2010,36(11):2699-2704.
[17]仲伟宽,徐敏,孙天宇,等.二次系统状态检修技术在智能变电站中的应用[J].江苏电机工程,2012,31(1):14ZHONG Weikuan,XU Min,SUN Tianyu,et al.Application of CBM method on secondary system in smart substation[J].Jiangsu Electrical Engineering,2012,31(1):14-15.
[18]彭建宇,李春来,刘皓明,等.分布式发电运维模式分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2016,18(2):21-25.PENG Jianyu,LI Chunlai,LIU Haoming,et al.Analysis on operation and maintenance modes for distributed generation[J].Power Demand Side Mangment,2016,18(2):21-25.
[19]杨晓辉,尹玉君,寇晓适.基于风险评估的特高压受端电网输电设备检修策略研究[J].电力工程技术,2017,36(2).YANG Xiaohui,YIN Yujun,KOU Xiaoshi.Research on the maintenance strategy of UHV receiving power grid transmission equipment based on risk assessment[J].Electric Power Engineering Technology,2017,36(2).
[20]刘顺桂,杨佳驹,王磊.考虑用户用电特性的基线负荷计算方法[J].电力需求侧管理,2016,18(3):17-22.LIU Shunjia,YANG Jiaju,WANG Lei.Baseline load calculation with considering customer different electrical characteristics.Power Demand Side Mangment,2016,18(3):17-22.