科技发展投资驱动下的一次能源消费最优控制模型
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摘要
为研究科技发展投资对于一次能源消费控制的驱动作用,首先构建一次能源消费的IPAT模型和经济发展水平的C-D生产函数模型,运用Johansen-Juselius协整检验方法确定IPAT模型和C-D生产函数模型的参数,在此基础上构建基于最优控制理论的一次能源消费最优控制模型,使用该模型获得一次能源消费的最优化路径和科技发展投资的最优控制路径,分析科技发展投资对于一次能源消费的驱动效果。在我国"十三五"期间经济发展约束下,运用该模型研究我国"十三五"期间科技发展投资驱动下的一次能源消费的优化问题,研究结果显示:在科技水平不断提升的前提下,我国一次能源消费量在理论上可以呈现不断降低的理想发展趋势,2020年下降到330 940万t标准煤,同时我国科技发展投资应保持年均26.6%的高速增长,在科技发展的驱动下,我国全社会固定资产投资的GDP占比也可以呈现不断降低的趋势,从而实现科技发展驱动下的集约式发展模式。
Aiming to study the driving effect of investment in technology development to control primary energy consumption, IPAT model about primary energy consumption and C-D production function about economic development are established firstly, then parameters of IPAT model and C-D production function are calculated basedon Johansen-Juselius cointegeration test theory. The optimum control model of primary energy consumption is constructed to acquire the optimum path of primary energy consumption and the optimum control path of investment in technology development. The driving function of investment in technology development is analyzed furthermore. With the constraint of economic development during "13th five years", the optimization problem of primary energy consumption is studied, and results show that Chinese primary energy consumption can be controlled to decline continuously in theory in the condition of rapid growth of technology. In 2020, primary energy consumption can decline to 330940 million tons of standard coal, however, Chinese technology development investment should increase sharply with 26.6% growth rate. With the driving function of technology development, the ratio of total investment in fixed assets to GDP can also decrease continuously, hence the intensive development mode of economy can be achieved with the driving function of technology development.
Aiming to study the driving effect of investment in technology development to control primary energy consumption, IPAT model about primary energy consumption and C-D production function about economic development are established firstly, then parameters of IPAT model and C-D production function are calculated basedon Johansen-Juselius cointegeration test theory. The optimum control model of primary energy consumption is constructed to acquire the optimum path of primary energy consumption and the optimum control path of investment in technology development. The driving function of investment in technology development is analyzed furthermore. With the constraint of economic development during "13th five years", the optimization problem of primary energy consumption is studied, and results show that Chinese primary energy consumption can be controlled to decline continuously in theory in the condition of rapid growth of technology. In 2020, primary energy consumption can decline to 330940 million tons of standard coal, however, Chinese technology development investment should increase sharply with 26.6% growth rate. With the driving function of technology development, the ratio of total investment in fixed assets to GDP can also decrease continuously, hence the intensive development mode of economy can be achieved with the driving function of technology development.
引文
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[11]夏泽义,张炜.中国能源消费与人口、经济增长关系的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2009(5):7-11
[12]ARROW K J,SOLOW R M.Capital-Labor substitution and economic efficiency[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1961,43(3):225-250
[13]SATO R,HOFFMAN R F.Production functions with variable elasticity of factor substitution:some analysis and testing[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1968,50(4):453-460
[14]迟国泰,顾雪松,王卫.基于关联分析的科技评价模型及典型省份实证[J].科研管理,2011,32(1):68-78
[15]JUSELIUS K.The cointegrated VAR model:methodology and applications[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2006
[16]徐杰,段万春,杨建龙.中国资本存量的重估[J].统计研究,2010,27(12):72-77
[17]杨林涛,韩兆洲,王昭颖.多视角下R&D资本化测算方法比较与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(12):90-106
[2]马宏伟,刘思峰,袁潮清,等.基于生产函数的中国能源消费与经济增长的多变量协整关系的分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2374-2381
[3]邹艳芬.中国能源生态足迹的技术进步影响实证分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(7):1280-1288
[4]郎春雷.基于技术创新不同投入产出指标的中国能源消费影响因素的实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2012(17):60-67
[5]PARK C W,KWON K S,KIM W B,et al.Energy consumption reduction technology in manufacturing—a selective review of policies,standards,and research[J].International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing,2009,10(5):151-173
[6]HANSSEN K G.Efficient technologies or user behaviour,which is the more important when reducing households’energy consumption?[J].Energy Efficiency,2013,6(3):447-457
[7]田闻旭,赵胤慧,谭忠富,等.节能减排目标下北京能源消费布局优化分析[J].中国能源,2012,34(9):31-33
[8]何立华,杨盼,蒙雁琳,等.能源结构优化对低碳山东的贡献潜力[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(6):89-97
[9]XU J,YAO L,LU Y.Energy structure optimization[M].Springer:Berlin Heidelberg,2014:209-231
[10]赵进文,范继涛.经济增长与能源消费内在依从关系的实证研究[J].经济研究,2007,(8):31-42
[11]夏泽义,张炜.中国能源消费与人口、经济增长关系的实证研究[J].人口与经济,2009(5):7-11
[12]ARROW K J,SOLOW R M.Capital-Labor substitution and economic efficiency[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1961,43(3):225-250
[13]SATO R,HOFFMAN R F.Production functions with variable elasticity of factor substitution:some analysis and testing[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1968,50(4):453-460
[14]迟国泰,顾雪松,王卫.基于关联分析的科技评价模型及典型省份实证[J].科研管理,2011,32(1):68-78
[15]JUSELIUS K.The cointegrated VAR model:methodology and applications[M].New York:Oxford University Press,2006
[16]徐杰,段万春,杨建龙.中国资本存量的重估[J].统计研究,2010,27(12):72-77
[17]杨林涛,韩兆洲,王昭颖.多视角下R&D资本化测算方法比较与应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(12):90-106