中国交通基础设施与城市就业增长时空演变研究
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摘要
实证层面利用2003—2015年中国283个地级及以上城市的动态面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计方法,分析交通基础设施对城市就业增长时空演变的影响。结果发现:(1)交通基础设施对城市就业增长具有显著的促进作用,如果忽略内生性问题这种促进作用,会初低估;(2)交通基础设施对城市第三产业就业增长的促进作用大于对城市第二产业就业增长的促进作用;(3)交通基础设施越发达的地区,交通基础设施对城市就业增长的促进作用越大,即:东部地带>中部地带>西部地带。
Employment growth is a key indicator for quality increase as well as the spillover effect of infrastructure.Based on general equilibrium analysis,this paper first discusses the influence of transportation infrastructure on urban employment growth.It finds that the influence depends on the share of transportation and land in expenditure of urban residents,elasticity of transportation and land supply,agglomeration economies and the employment adjustment rate.It then analyzes empirically the dynamic panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2015 to find out the influence by system GMM method.We have the following results.First,transportation infrastructure has significantly positive influence on urban employment growth,and its positive influence will be underestimated if endogeneity is ignored;second,the positive influence on tertiary industry is greater than that on secondary industry;third,the more developed the transportation infrastructure is,the greater the positive influence is,and the descending order is East China,Central China and West China.
Employment growth is a key indicator for quality increase as well as the spillover effect of infrastructure.Based on general equilibrium analysis,this paper first discusses the influence of transportation infrastructure on urban employment growth.It finds that the influence depends on the share of transportation and land in expenditure of urban residents,elasticity of transportation and land supply,agglomeration economies and the employment adjustment rate.It then analyzes empirically the dynamic panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2015 to find out the influence by system GMM method.We have the following results.First,transportation infrastructure has significantly positive influence on urban employment growth,and its positive influence will be underestimated if endogeneity is ignored;second,the positive influence on tertiary industry is greater than that on secondary industry;third,the more developed the transportation infrastructure is,the greater the positive influence is,and the descending order is East China,Central China and West China.
引文
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[2] DUFFY-DENO K T,DALENBERG D R.The Municipal Wage and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure[J].Urban Studies,1993,30(9):1577-1589.
[3] DALENBERG D R,PARTRIDGE M D,RICKMAN D S.PublicInfrastructure:Pork or Jobs Creator?[J].Public Finance Review,1998,26(1):24-52.
[4] 郑振雄.公路基础设施的就业效应实证分析——基于省际动态面板模型[J].人口与经济,2011(2):28-32.
[5] DURANTON G,TURNER M A.Urban Growth and Transportation[J].The Review of Economic Studies,2012,79(4):1407-1440.
[6] BOTTASSO A,CONTI M,FERRARI C,et al.The Impact of Port Throughput on Local Employment:Evidence from a Panel of European Regions[J].Transport Policy,2013,27:32-38.
[7] 邓明.中国城市交通基础设施与就业密度的关系——内生关系与空间溢出效应[J].经济管理,2014(1):163-174.
[8] 肖挺.中国城市交通基础设施建设对本地就业的影响[J].中国人口科学,2016(4):96-104.
[9] ALBALATE D,FAGEDA X.High-Technology Employment and Transportation:Evidence from the European Regions[J].Regional Studies,2014,50(9):1564-1578.
[10] FAGEDA X,GONZALEZ-AREGALL M.DoAll Transport Modes Impact on Industrial Employment?Empirical Evidence from the Spanish Regions[J].Transport Policy,2017,55:70-78.
[11] COHEN J P,PAUL J M.Public Infrastructure Investment,Interstate Spatial Spillovers,and Manufacturing Costs[J].Review of Economicsand Statistics,2004,86(2):551-560.
[12] JIWATTANAKULPAISARN P,NOLAND R B,GRAHAM D J.Causal LinkagesBetween Highways and Sector-Level Employment[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2010,44(4):265-280.
[13] 陆铭,欧海军.高增长与低就业:政府干预与就业弹性的经验研究[J].世界经济,2011,34(12):3-31.
[14] DEMETRIADES P O,MAMUNEAS T P.Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital:Evidence from 12 OECD Economies[J].The Economic Journal,2000,110(465):687-712.
[15] 张光南,李小瑛,陈广汉.中国基础设施的就业、产出和投资效应——基于1998～2006年省际工业企业面板数据研究[J].管理世界,2010(4):5-13,31.
[16] JIWATTANAKULPAISARN P,NOLAND R B,GRAHAM D J,et al.Highway Infrastructure and State-Level Employment:A Causal Spatial Analysis[J].Papers in Regional Science,2009,88(1):133-159.
[17] JIWATTANAKULPAISARN P,GRAHAM D,POLAK J,et al.Highway Infrastructure Investment and County Employment Growth:Dynamic Panel Regression Analysis[J].Journal of Regional Science,2009,49(2):263-286.
[18] 常修泽.中国建立社会主义市场经济体制进程的基本判断及思考[J].改革,2002 (4):5-16.
[19] 许宪春.中国服务业核算及其存在的问题研究[J].统计研究,2004,21(3):20-27.
[20] 李德水.关于GDP的几点思考[J].经济研究,2004(4):26-28.
[21] ARELLANO M,BOND S.Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[22] ARELLANO M,BOVER O.Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
[23] BLUNDELL R,BOND S.InitialConditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models [J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.