煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的未确知测度模型
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摘要
煤与瓦斯突出的影响因子存在随机性、模糊性、灰性、未知性等不确定性,传统的评价方法难以兼顾评价指标的确定和未确知性,导致煤矿煤与瓦斯突出评价结果失真。针对此问题,构建了比较全面的煤与瓦斯突出评价体系,引入新的评价方法,基于未确知理论,综合煤与瓦斯突出评价指标的未确知因素,通过层次分析法确定影响因子的权重;由影响因子的未确知测度向量建立向量模型;用置信度描述评价结果,得出煤与瓦斯突出等级。运用构建的新评价模型对新兴煤矿煤与瓦斯突出进行评价,评价结果为"较安全"等级,符合工程实际。工程实例表明:基于未确知测度理论的煤与瓦斯突出评价准确、可靠,精度较高,具有较高的应用价值。
The influence factors of coal and gas outburst are random, fuzzy, grey and unknown, the traditional evaluation method is difficult to balance the determination and uncertainty of evaluation indexes, which leads to the distortion of coal and gas outburst evaluation. To solve this problem, a comprehensive evaluation system for coal and gas outburst is established, and a new evaluation method based on unascertained theory is introduced; based on the comprehensive evaluation index of coal and gas outburst unascertained factors, the influence factor weight by AHP is determined; vector model is established by the impact factor of the unascertained measure vector;using confidence to describe the evaluation results, the level of coal and gas outburst is obtained.Evaluation of coal and gas outburst in Xinxing Coal Mine is carried out by using new evaluation model. The evaluation result is"safer"grade, which conforms to the engineering practice. The engineering example shows that the coal and gas outburst evaluation based on unascertained measure theory is accurate, reliable, high precision, and has high application value.
The influence factors of coal and gas outburst are random, fuzzy, grey and unknown, the traditional evaluation method is difficult to balance the determination and uncertainty of evaluation indexes, which leads to the distortion of coal and gas outburst evaluation. To solve this problem, a comprehensive evaluation system for coal and gas outburst is established, and a new evaluation method based on unascertained theory is introduced; based on the comprehensive evaluation index of coal and gas outburst unascertained factors, the influence factor weight by AHP is determined; vector model is established by the impact factor of the unascertained measure vector;using confidence to describe the evaluation results, the level of coal and gas outburst is obtained.Evaluation of coal and gas outburst in Xinxing Coal Mine is carried out by using new evaluation model. The evaluation result is"safer"grade, which conforms to the engineering practice. The engineering example shows that the coal and gas outburst evaluation based on unascertained measure theory is accurate, reliable, high precision, and has high application value.
引文
[1]胡新成,杨胜强,周秀红.基于熵权的TOPSIS法在煤与瓦斯突出综合评价中的应用[J].煤矿安全,2011,42(12):26-29.
[2]梁冰,秦冰,孙维吉,等.智能加权灰靶决策模型在煤与瓦斯突出危险评价中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2013,38(9):1611-1615.
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[7]刘俊娥,曾凡雷,郭章林.基于RS-SVM模型的煤与瓦斯突出多因素风险评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(7):21-26.
[8]付小平,薛新华,李洪涛.GRNN模型在煤与瓦斯突出及瓦斯含量预测中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(1):24-28.
[9]王刚,武猛猛,王海洋,等.基于能量平衡模型的煤与瓦斯突出影响因素的灵敏度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(2):238-248.
[10]孙东玲,胡千庭,苗法田.煤与瓦斯突出过程中煤-瓦斯两相流的运动状态[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(3):452-458.
[11]姜福兴,尹永明,朱权洁,等.基于掘进面应力和瓦斯浓度动态变化的煤与瓦斯突出预警试验研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,32(S2):3581-3588.
[12]李成武,解北京,曹家琳,等.煤与瓦斯突出强度能量评价模型[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(9):1547-1552.
[13]关维娟,张国枢,赵志根,等.煤与瓦斯突出多指标综合辨识与实时预警研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(6):922-929.
[14]郭德勇,胡杰,王彦凯.煤与瓦斯突出层次—可拓预警技术及应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(1):88-92.
[15]舒龙勇,王凯,齐庆新,等.煤巷掘进面应力场演化特征及突出危险性评价模型[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2017,34(2):259-267.
[2]梁冰,秦冰,孙维吉,等.智能加权灰靶决策模型在煤与瓦斯突出危险评价中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2013,38(9):1611-1615.
[3]陈光波.基于云模型和D-S理论的冲击地压危险性综合评价[J].矿业研究与开发,2017,37(6):26-30.
[4]秦毅,杨胜强,马旭东.基于主成分分析法的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价[J].煤矿安全,2012,43(9):215.
[5]兰泽全,王志亮,张跃兵,等.煤与瓦斯突出危险性模糊综合评价方法研究[J].煤矿安全,2016,47(3):159-163.
[6]刘俊娥,杨晓帆,刘丙午.基于优度评价法的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价[J].煤矿安全,2013,44(3):166.
[7]刘俊娥,曾凡雷,郭章林.基于RS-SVM模型的煤与瓦斯突出多因素风险评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(7):21-26.
[8]付小平,薛新华,李洪涛.GRNN模型在煤与瓦斯突出及瓦斯含量预测中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(1):24-28.
[9]王刚,武猛猛,王海洋,等.基于能量平衡模型的煤与瓦斯突出影响因素的灵敏度分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2015,34(2):238-248.
[10]孙东玲,胡千庭,苗法田.煤与瓦斯突出过程中煤-瓦斯两相流的运动状态[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(3):452-458.
[11]姜福兴,尹永明,朱权洁,等.基于掘进面应力和瓦斯浓度动态变化的煤与瓦斯突出预警试验研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,32(S2):3581-3588.
[12]李成武,解北京,曹家琳,等.煤与瓦斯突出强度能量评价模型[J].煤炭学报,2012,37(9):1547-1552.
[13]关维娟,张国枢,赵志根,等.煤与瓦斯突出多指标综合辨识与实时预警研究[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2013,30(6):922-929.
[14]郭德勇,胡杰,王彦凯.煤与瓦斯突出层次—可拓预警技术及应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(1):88-92.
[15]舒龙勇,王凯,齐庆新,等.煤巷掘进面应力场演化特征及突出危险性评价模型[J].采矿与安全工程学报,2017,34(2):259-267.