高房价挤出中国储蓄了吗?——2008年金融危机后中国储蓄率变化原因分析
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摘要
基于中国省级和美国、德国、日本、英国、法国、意大利、加拿大、韩国G8国家2000年至2017年的平衡面板数据进行回归分析后发现,中国房价对储蓄率影响呈"倒U"型,即房价温和上涨会拉动储蓄率上升,但超过某个临界点后会对储蓄率产生明显的挤出效应;中国人口老龄化率上升尚不足以解释中国储蓄率的变化;2008年金融危机后中国储蓄率下降主要归因为房价过快上涨,金融业快速发展,政府在医疗、社保、教育的公共支出增加,保险行业壮大以及经济增速下调;G8国家低储蓄的原因主要是政府在医疗、社保、教育方面有较高的公共支出。与G8国家相比,中国的医疗、社保、教育支出占GDP比重低是中国储蓄率居高不下的重要原因,中国房价上涨对居民财富的挤出效应巨大,对储蓄率的下降有明显作用。在未来,中国储蓄率下降将是长期现象,并会推高融资成本,但必须警惕由于经济增长放缓、房价过快上涨以及人口老龄化等消极因素导致的储蓄率太快下降,避免融资成本过快上涨。
Based on the balance panel data from 2000 to 2017 of G8 countries and China's provinces,the author carries out and regression analysis. It is found that:(1)The impact of China's housing prices on the savings rate is"inverted U",that is,the moderate increase in house prices will drive the savings rate to rise,but after a certain critical point,the savings rate will be significantly crowded out;(2)Changes in demographic characteristics are not sufficient to explain changes in China's savings rate;(3)The main factors behind the decline in China's savings rate after the financial crisis should be attributed to the rise of housing price,the rapid development of the financial industry,the increase in government public spending on medical,social security,and education,the rapid development of insurance industry,and the slow down of China's economic growth;(4)The reason for low savings in G8 countries is that the government has higher public expenditures in medical care,social security,and education. Comparing to G8 countries,the low proportion of government expenditure on medical,social security,and education is the important reason for the high savings rate in China;the crowding-out effect of the rising housing price in China on residents' wealth is significant;and it will also significantly reduce the savings rate. In the future,the reducing savings rate will exist in China in the long run,and it will increase the cost of financing. We should also guard against that the savings rate be reduced rapidly because of such negative factors as the slow down economic growth,the rapidly rising housing price,and the aging problem,and prevent the rapidly rising cost of financing.
Based on the balance panel data from 2000 to 2017 of G8 countries and China's provinces,the author carries out and regression analysis. It is found that:(1)The impact of China's housing prices on the savings rate is"inverted U",that is,the moderate increase in house prices will drive the savings rate to rise,but after a certain critical point,the savings rate will be significantly crowded out;(2)Changes in demographic characteristics are not sufficient to explain changes in China's savings rate;(3)The main factors behind the decline in China's savings rate after the financial crisis should be attributed to the rise of housing price,the rapid development of the financial industry,the increase in government public spending on medical,social security,and education,the rapid development of insurance industry,and the slow down of China's economic growth;(4)The reason for low savings in G8 countries is that the government has higher public expenditures in medical care,social security,and education. Comparing to G8 countries,the low proportion of government expenditure on medical,social security,and education is the important reason for the high savings rate in China;the crowding-out effect of the rising housing price in China on residents' wealth is significant;and it will also significantly reduce the savings rate. In the future,the reducing savings rate will exist in China in the long run,and it will increase the cost of financing. We should also guard against that the savings rate be reduced rapidly because of such negative factors as the slow down economic growth,the rapidly rising housing price,and the aging problem,and prevent the rapidly rising cost of financing.
引文
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[23]BADI H,BALTAGI,PING X WU.Unequally spaced panel data regressions with Ar(1)disturbances[J].Econometric theory,2000(6):814-823.
[24]杨华磊,何凌云,汪伟.人口世代更迭与资本红利——中国储蓄率的倒U型之谜[J].国际金融研究,2017(4):24-33.
[25]NAOHIRO YASHIRO,AKIKO SATO OISHI.Population aging and the savings-investment balance in Japan//.Michael D. Hurd,Naohiro Yashiro,The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan[M].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1996:59-87.
[26]陈彦斌,邱哲圣.高房价如何影响居民储蓄率和财产不平等[J].经济研究,2011(10):25-38.
[27]赵西亮,梁文泉,李实.房价上涨能够解释中国城镇居民高储蓄率吗?——基于CHIP微观数据的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2014(1):81-102.
[28]OECD.Public social spending is high in many OECD countries[A/OL].(2019-01-02)[2019-05-29].http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECD2019-Social-Expenditure-Update.pdf.
[29]李若谷.警惕中国储蓄率过快下滑的趋势[J].经济导刊,2017(9):30-39.
[2]卫庶,赵鹏飞.中国家庭债务率已接近美国水平要高度警惕[A/OL].(2018-01-16)[2019-05-29].http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/gncj/2018-01-16/doc-ifyqrewi5000403.shtml.
[3]中国社会科学院.继续坚持结构性去杠杆——中国去杠杆进程报告(2018年三季度)[R/OL].(2019-01-02)[2019-05-29].http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/201901021017533177.html.
[4]KEYNES JOHN MAYNARD.The general theory of employment,interest and money[M].London:Macmillan,1936:33-55.
[5]FRIEDMAN M.NBER:a theory of the consumption function:the permanent income hypothesis[J/OL].(1957-06-21)[2019-05-29].https://www.nber.org/chapters/c4405.pdf.
[6]ANDO A,MODIGLIANI F.The“life cycle”hypothesis of saving:aggregate implications and tests[J].American economic review,1963(1):55-84.
[7]CARROLL C D,OVERLAND J,WEIL D N.Saving and growth with habit formation[J].American economic review,2000(3):341-355.
[8]CARROLL C D,WEIL D N.Saving and growth:a reinterpretation[R].Working paper,1993.
[9]YANG D T,ZHANG J,ZHOU S.Why are saving rates so high in China?[J].Ssrn electronic journal,2011(2):249-278.
[10]MODIGLIANI,FRANCO,SHI LARRY CAO.The Chinese saving puzzle and the life cycle hypothesis[J].Journal of economic literature,2004(3):145-170.
[11]陈利平.高增长导致高储蓄:一个基于消费攀比的解释[J].世界经济,2005(11):3-9.
[12]王弟海,龚六堂.增长经济中的消费和储蓄——兼论中国高储蓄率的原因[J].金融研究,2007(12):1-16.
[13]汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的决定因素——基于1995——2005年省际动态面板数据的分析[J].财经研究,2008(2):53-64.
[14]ZHANG L M,RAY BROOKS,DING D,et al.IMF:China’s high savings:drivers,prospects,and policie[J/OL].(2018-12-18)[2019-05-29].https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/12/11/Chinas-High-Savings-DriversProspects-and-Policies-46437.
[15]刘遵义.中国储蓄率较高的原因分析[Z/OL].(2009-07-04)[2019-05-29].http://finance.sina.com.cn/hy/20090704/11466440140_4.shtml.
[16]CURTIS C C,LUGAUER S,MARK N C.NBER:demographic patterns and household saving in China[J/OL].(2011-02-01)[2019-05-29].https://www.nber.org/papers/w16828.
[17]MARCOS CHAMON,ESWAR PRASAD.Determinants of household saving in China[J/OL].(2005-10-11)[2019-05-29]. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228728598_Determinants_of_Household_Saving_in_China.
[18]WANG X,WEN Y.Housing prices and the high Chinese saving rate puzzle[J].China economic review,2012(2):265-283.
[19]WEN Y.Saving and growth under borrowing constraints:explaining the“high saving rate”puzzle[R].Working paper,2009.
[20]WEN Y.Explaining China’s trade imbalance puzzle[R].Working paper,2011.
[21]RICK HARBAUGH.China’s high savings rates[C].The Rise of China Revisited:Perception and Reality,2004.
[22]FENG J,HE L,SATO H.Public pension and household saving:evidence from urban China[J/OL].(2009-03-04)[2019-05-29].https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/8176/161478.pdf?sequence=1.
[23]BADI H,BALTAGI,PING X WU.Unequally spaced panel data regressions with Ar(1)disturbances[J].Econometric theory,2000(6):814-823.
[24]杨华磊,何凌云,汪伟.人口世代更迭与资本红利——中国储蓄率的倒U型之谜[J].国际金融研究,2017(4):24-33.
[25]NAOHIRO YASHIRO,AKIKO SATO OISHI.Population aging and the savings-investment balance in Japan//.Michael D. Hurd,Naohiro Yashiro,The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan[M].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1996:59-87.
[26]陈彦斌,邱哲圣.高房价如何影响居民储蓄率和财产不平等[J].经济研究,2011(10):25-38.
[27]赵西亮,梁文泉,李实.房价上涨能够解释中国城镇居民高储蓄率吗?——基于CHIP微观数据的实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2014(1):81-102.
[28]OECD.Public social spending is high in many OECD countries[A/OL].(2019-01-02)[2019-05-29].http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/OECD2019-Social-Expenditure-Update.pdf.
[29]李若谷.警惕中国储蓄率过快下滑的趋势[J].经济导刊,2017(9):30-39.