清洁采暖背景下张家口电采暖竞争力及经济性分析
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摘要
首先基于SWOT分析模型,对分散电采暖、电锅炉、热泵3类电采暖技术进行竞争力定性分析;然后构建清洁采暖经济性分析三维综合模型,从定量角度分析电采暖效益,基于临界电价指标、财务指标计算用户及电网经济效益,并且通过计算电采暖项目减排效果分析其环保效益;接着对采暖电价指标、初始投资指标进行上浮5%以及下浮5%的变动,分析其对"煤改电"、"气改电"项目IRR的影响程度。最后得出结论:清洁采暖背景下张家口电采暖技术具有较高的经济优势,电价变动对于"煤改电"项目影响较为显著,初始投资变动对于"气改电"项目影响较为显著,推进电采暖技术时可着重推广电锅炉采暖技术。
Based on the SWOT analysis model, the competitiveness of three types of electric heating technologies is analyzed qualitatively, such as distributed electric heating, electric boiler and heat pump. Then a three-dimensional comprehensive model of economic analysis of clean heating is built, the economic benefits of users and power grid are calculated based on the critical electricity price in dex and financial index. The environmental benefit is analyzed by calculating the emission reduction effect of electric heating project.Next, the heating price index and initial investment index are changed by 5% and-5%, and the influence of the changes is analyzed on IRR of"coal to electricity" and "gas to electricity" project. Finally,the conclusion is drawn that the electric heating technology of Zhangjiakou has a high economic advantage under the background of clean heating, the change of electricity price has a significant impact on the "coal-to-electricity " project, the initial investment change has a significant impact on the project of "gas-to-electricity" project. In promoting electric heating technology, relevant departments can focus on the promotion of electric boiler heating technology.
Based on the SWOT analysis model, the competitiveness of three types of electric heating technologies is analyzed qualitatively, such as distributed electric heating, electric boiler and heat pump. Then a three-dimensional comprehensive model of economic analysis of clean heating is built, the economic benefits of users and power grid are calculated based on the critical electricity price in dex and financial index. The environmental benefit is analyzed by calculating the emission reduction effect of electric heating project.Next, the heating price index and initial investment index are changed by 5% and-5%, and the influence of the changes is analyzed on IRR of"coal to electricity" and "gas to electricity" project. Finally,the conclusion is drawn that the electric heating technology of Zhangjiakou has a high economic advantage under the background of clean heating, the change of electricity price has a significant impact on the "coal-to-electricity " project, the initial investment change has a significant impact on the project of "gas-to-electricity" project. In promoting electric heating technology, relevant departments can focus on the promotion of electric boiler heating technology.
引文
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[6]孙毅,张璐,单葆国,等.基于信息熵融合多层次灰色关联分析法的电能替代综合评估[J].电网与清洁能源,2017,33(5):44-50.SUN Yi,ZHANG Lu,SHAN Baoguo,et al.Comprehensive assessment of electric power alternation based on multi-level grey relational analysis method combined with information entropy[J].Power System and Clean Energy,2017,33(5):44-50.
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[8]孙勇,严干贵,郑太一,等.电力市场背景下蓄热式电采暖消纳弃风的经济性分析[J].储能科学与技术,2016,5(4):532-538.SUN Yong,YAN Gangui,ZHENG Taiyi,et al.Economic analysis of electrical heating with heat storage using grid integrated wind power[J].Energy Storage Science and Technology,2016,5(4):532-538.
[9]袁甜,“以电代煤"供热项目综合效益评价及激励对策研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2016.
[10]高鑫,杜爱霞,胡彩娥,等.北京市新建住宅小区电能替代分析及策略研究[J].供用电,2017,34(8):52-57.GAO Xin,DU Aaixia,HU Cai'e,et al.Study on the analysis and strategy of electricity replacement in new residential district in Beijing[J].Distribution&Utilization,2017,34(8):52-57.
[11]涂莹,刘强,王庆娟,等.基于协同过滤算法的电能替代潜力用户挖掘模型研究[J].电力信息与通信技术,2017,15(12):25-31.TU Ying,LIU Qiang,WANG Qingjiuan,et al.Research on potential user mining model of power substitution based on collaborative filtering algorithm[J].Electric Power Information and Communication Technology,2017,15(12):25-31.
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