自然灾害型重大危机事件对区域旅游业冲击的效果评估:基于合成控制法的量化研究
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摘要
近年来,旅游业正日益成为经济增长的支柱产业,自然灾害型重大危机事件以其突发性和不可控性往往给区域旅游业的发展造成剧烈的冲击,评估此类事件的后果和影响对旅游业的布局与发展,特别是对灾后区域旅游业的复苏与旅游形象重建有重要指导作用。文章以四川汶川地震为例,采用合成控制法构建反事实框架,量化评估了四川省入境旅游业因地震的损失程度。实证结果表明,汶川地震使四川省入境旅游业遭受了严重损失,2008年国际旅游外汇收入比预计值减少424.55百万美元,预期下降幅度达到73.4%;地震对入境旅游业的影响持续到2010年,直至2011年才基本恢复到震前水平。研究结果表明,地震对旅游业的影响剧烈且不是暂时性的,在旅游业的布局与发展、灾区旅游业重建规划设计及实践中应对此予以充分重视。
The industrial revolution has caused the improvement of production efficiency and the accumulation of social wealth,which has promoted the growing up of tourism in the modern world.In recent years,tourism has increasingly become the pillar industry of economic growth,but as a service,export and joint industry,the development of tourism is inevitably affected and restricted by various internal and external factors.Many studies have shown that factors affecting regional tourism include economic development,tourism resources,transportation level,policy and special events.Among the many factors affecting the development of tourism,the natural disaster crisis often has a severe impact on the development of regional tourism due to its sudden and uncontrollable nature.Assessing the consequences and impacts of such incidents will play an important role in the overall arrangement and development of tourism,especially in the recovery of regional tourism and the reconstruction of tourism image in post-disaster areas.Taking the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan province as an example,this paper uses the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual framework to quantitatively assess the damage caused by earthquakes in the inbound tourism industry in Sichuan province.Firstly,this paper constructs a panel data set of 25 provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2014.The indicators include foreign exchange income of international tourism,number of international tourists hosted,per capita gross domestic product,consumption level of residents,number of star hotels,urban per capita road area and lagging items of foreign exchange income of international tourism.Among them,foreign exchange income of international tourism is the dependent variables of research.Then the mathematical optimization model is used to select samples from other provinces to establish an ideal control group.The predictive variables in the control group are optimized continuously by weighted average method to simulate the economic characteristics of Sichuan province.Finally,we get the expected change curve of international tourism foreign exchange income in Sichuan province.The empirical results show that the Wenchuan earthquake has caused serious losses to the inbound tourism industry in Sichuan province.In 2008,international tourism foreign exchange income decreased by 424.55 million US dollars compared with the expected value,and the expected decline rate reached 73.4%.The impact of the earthquake on inbound tourism continued until2010,and did not recover to the pre-earthquake level until 2011.The results show that the impact of earthquakes on tourism is intense and not temporary.It should be given full attention in the layout and development of tourism,planning and design of tourism reconstruction in disaster areas.This study is helpful to enrich the literature on the impact of important events on tourism industry,and also provides theoretical support for decision-making at the functional level.Firstly,this paper innovatively applies counterfactual analysis method to tourism forecasting,broadens the thinking of conventional tourism forecasting research and greatly improves the accuracy of potential results evaluation of tourism-related variables.Secondly,the results of our research can provide some ideas for the adjustment of emergency disaster management mechanism.Through the assessment of the impact severe natural disasters,we can effectively identify the nature of the impact of disasters,including the degree and the duration of the impact,and then it is helpful in guiding the allocation of relief funds,optimizing the planning design and practice of post-disaster regional tourism reconstruction,so as to create a good legal environment for natural disasters prevention and response.
The industrial revolution has caused the improvement of production efficiency and the accumulation of social wealth,which has promoted the growing up of tourism in the modern world.In recent years,tourism has increasingly become the pillar industry of economic growth,but as a service,export and joint industry,the development of tourism is inevitably affected and restricted by various internal and external factors.Many studies have shown that factors affecting regional tourism include economic development,tourism resources,transportation level,policy and special events.Among the many factors affecting the development of tourism,the natural disaster crisis often has a severe impact on the development of regional tourism due to its sudden and uncontrollable nature.Assessing the consequences and impacts of such incidents will play an important role in the overall arrangement and development of tourism,especially in the recovery of regional tourism and the reconstruction of tourism image in post-disaster areas.Taking the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan province as an example,this paper uses the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual framework to quantitatively assess the damage caused by earthquakes in the inbound tourism industry in Sichuan province.Firstly,this paper constructs a panel data set of 25 provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2014.The indicators include foreign exchange income of international tourism,number of international tourists hosted,per capita gross domestic product,consumption level of residents,number of star hotels,urban per capita road area and lagging items of foreign exchange income of international tourism.Among them,foreign exchange income of international tourism is the dependent variables of research.Then the mathematical optimization model is used to select samples from other provinces to establish an ideal control group.The predictive variables in the control group are optimized continuously by weighted average method to simulate the economic characteristics of Sichuan province.Finally,we get the expected change curve of international tourism foreign exchange income in Sichuan province.The empirical results show that the Wenchuan earthquake has caused serious losses to the inbound tourism industry in Sichuan province.In 2008,international tourism foreign exchange income decreased by 424.55 million US dollars compared with the expected value,and the expected decline rate reached 73.4%.The impact of the earthquake on inbound tourism continued until2010,and did not recover to the pre-earthquake level until 2011.The results show that the impact of earthquakes on tourism is intense and not temporary.It should be given full attention in the layout and development of tourism,planning and design of tourism reconstruction in disaster areas.This study is helpful to enrich the literature on the impact of important events on tourism industry,and also provides theoretical support for decision-making at the functional level.Firstly,this paper innovatively applies counterfactual analysis method to tourism forecasting,broadens the thinking of conventional tourism forecasting research and greatly improves the accuracy of potential results evaluation of tourism-related variables.Secondly,the results of our research can provide some ideas for the adjustment of emergency disaster management mechanism.Through the assessment of the impact severe natural disasters,we can effectively identify the nature of the impact of disasters,including the degree and the duration of the impact,and then it is helpful in guiding the allocation of relief funds,optimizing the planning design and practice of post-disaster regional tourism reconstruction,so as to create a good legal environment for natural disasters prevention and response.
引文
[1]BERENYI J.The development of tourism and influencing factors[J].Journal of Mathematical Economics,1980,17(2-3):119-147.
[2]DEASY G F,GRIESS P R.Impact of a tourist facility on its hinterland[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,1996,56(1):29-306.
[3]BARONE G,MOCETTI S.Natural disasters,growth and institution:A tale of two earthquakes[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2014,84:52-66.
[4]TVERSKY A,KAHNEMAN D.Judgment under uncertaintyheuristics and biases[J].Science,1974,185(4157):1124-1131.
[5]TZENG G H,CHEN Y W.Implementing an effective schedule for reconstructing post-earthquake road-network based on asym-metric traffic assignment-An application of genetic algorithm[J].Operations and Quantitative Management,1998,4(3):229-246.
[6]LAW R,AU N.A neural network model to forecast Japanese demand for travel to Hong Kong[J].Tourism Management,1999,20(1):89-97.
[7]ARA-NA J E,LEóN C J.The impact of terrorism on tourism demand[J].Annals of Tourism Research,35(2):299-315.
[8]WANG Y S.The impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on Taiwan’s international inbound tourism demand[J].Tourism Management,2009,30(1):75-82.
[9]SUN Gennian.Foundation and significance of background trend line of tourists from abroad in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,1998,18(5):442-448.[孙根年.我国境外旅游本底趋势线的建立及科学意义[J].地理科学,1998,18(5):442-448.]
[10]SUN Gennian,ZHOU Ruina,MA Lijun,et al.Impact of five important events on China provincial inbound tourism in 2008:An analysis in high-resolution based on the TBL model[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(12):1437-1446.[孙根年,周瑞娜,马丽君,等.2008年五大事件对中国入境旅游的影响--基于本底趋势线模型高分辨率的分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(12):1437-1446.]
[11]ZHANG Yujuan.Determinants of China Inbound Tourism Based on Double-log Linear Regress Model[D].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China,2008.[张玉娟.基于双对数线性模型的中国入境旅游需求影响因素研究[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2008.]
[12]WANG Chunyang,HUANG Fucai.A study on the factors determining the demand for China inbound tourism-Taking foreign source market[J].Journal of Business Economics,2009,9:88-96.[王纯阳,黄福才.中国入境旅游需求影响因素分析及预测--以外国客源市场为例[J].商业经济与管理,2009,(9):88-96.]
[13]WANG Zheng,YUAN Yujie,XIONG Wen.The impact of megaevents on Shanghai.s demand for inbound travel:Based on the analysis of ADL model[J].Tourism Tribune,2010,25(4):44-49.[王铮,袁宇杰,熊文.重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响--基于ADL模型的分析[J].旅游学刊,2010,25(4):44-49.]
[14]YAO Pei,LIU Xibo,ZHANG Qian.Model based double logarithmic in the analysis of influence factors on Beijing inbound tourism demand[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(11):15-23.[姚沛,刘喜波,张茜.基于双对数线性模型的北京市入境旅游需求影响因素分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(11):15-23.]
[15]ATHIYAMAN A,ROBERTSON R W.Time series forecasting?1techniques:Short-term planning in tourism[J].International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management,1992,4(4):8-11.
[16]HUANG J H,MIN C H J.Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism:The Taiwan case[J].Tourism Management,2002,23(2):145-154.
[17]XIN Yaping,WU Jinfeng,GAO Peipei,et al.Quantitative assessment of impact of the“5·12”earthquake on tourism in Sichuan province[J].Statistics&Decision,2010,17:91-93.[辛亚平,吴晋峰,高佩佩,等.“5·12”地震对四川省旅游业影响的定量评估[J].统计与决策,2010,17:91-93.]
[18]ZHU Yingbo,GE Quansheng,WEI Xiaoan,et al.A study on the effect of the SARS epidemic on the international tourist arrivals in China[J].Geographical Research,2003,22(5):551-559.[朱迎波,葛全胜,魏小安,等.SARS对中国入境旅游人数影响的研究[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):551-559.]
[19]ZHU Mingfang,LIU Simin.The application of TRAMO/SEATS model to measure the impact of crisis events on tourism[J].Tourism Tribune,2007,22(6):69-74.[朱明芳,刘思敏.TRAMO/SEATS在危机事件中对旅游影响研究的应用[J].旅游学刊,2007,22(6):69-74.]
[20]BOX G E P,TIAO G C.Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1975,70:70-79.
[21]ENDERS W,SANDLER T,CAULEY J.Assessing the impact of terrorist thwarting policies:An intervention time series approach[J].Defense Economics,1990,(2):1-18.
[22]ENDERS W,SANDLER T,PARISE G F.An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism[J].Kyklos,1992,(45):531-554.
[23]BONHAM C,GANGNES B.Intervention analysis with cointegrated time series:The case of the Hawaii hotel room tax[J].Applied Economics,1996,28(10):1281-1293.
[24]MIN C H J.Intervention analysis of inbound tourism:A case study of Taiwan[J].Advances in Hospitality&Leisure,2008,4(8):53-74.
[25]ABADIE A,GARDEAZABAL J.The economic costs of conflict:A case study of the Basque country[J].The American Economic Review,2003,93(1):113-132.
[26]PODESTA F.The economic impact of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia autonomy:A synthetic control analysis of asymmetric Italian Federalism[J].The Annals of Regional Science,2017,58(1):21-37.
[27]ABADIE A,GARDEAZABAL J.Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies:Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,2010,105(490):493-505.
[28]LIU Jiayan,FAN Ziying.Evaluation of the effectiveness of Chinese property tax pilot:A study based on synthetic control method[J].The Journal of World Economy,2013,(11):117-135.[刘甲炎,范子英.中国房产税试点的效果评估:基于合成控制法的研究[J].世界经济,2013,(11):117-135.]
[29]ZHENG Yi,LIN Enhui,YU Jianhui.If the Melamine incident lead to a sharp increase in the import of dairy products:An empirical study based on the synthetic control method[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2015,(2):109-117.[郑义,林恩惠,余建辉.三聚氰胺事件导致了乳制品进口剧增吗--基于合成控制法的经验研究[J].农业技术经济,2015,(2):109-117.]
[30]BAI J,NG S.Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models[J].Econometrica,2002,70(1):191-221.?33
(1)WORLD TRAVEL&TOURISM COUNCIL.Executive Summary 2017[EB/OL].www.wttc.org,2017-10-11.[世界旅游及旅行理事会.2017执行总结[EB/OL].www.wttc.org,2017-10-11.]?24
(1)STATISTICAL BUREAU OF SICHUAN.Sichuan Statistical Yearbook for 2017[EB/OL].http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/tjcbw/tjnj/2017/zk/indexch.htm,2017-12-06.[四川省统计局.2017四川统计年鉴[EB/OL].http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/tjcbw/tjnj/2017/zk/indexch.htm,2017-12-06.]
(2)MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURISM OF THE PEOPLE’SREPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Yearbook of China Tourism for 2009[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.[中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.2009中国旅游年鉴[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.]?27
(1)THE STATE COUNCIL INFORMATION OFFICE OF THEPEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Wenchuan earthquake caused845.1 billion yuan of direct economic losses,of which 91.3%were in Sichuan,5.8%in Gansu and 2.9%in Shaanxi[EB/OL].www.scio.gov.cn,2018-09-04.[中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室.汶川地震造成直接经济损失8451亿元,其中四川的损失占到总损失的91.3%,甘肃占5.8%,陕西占2.9%[EB/OL].www.scio.gov.cn,2018-09-04.]?8
(1)MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURISM OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Yearbook of China Tourism for 1999[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.[中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.1999中国旅游年鉴[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.]
(2)MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURISM OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Yearbook of China Tourism for 2004[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.[中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.2004中国旅游年鉴[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.]??129
(1)MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURISM OF THE PEOPLE’SREPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Yearbook of China Tourism for 2009[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.[中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.2009中国旅游年鉴[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.]?31
[2]DEASY G F,GRIESS P R.Impact of a tourist facility on its hinterland[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,1996,56(1):29-306.
[3]BARONE G,MOCETTI S.Natural disasters,growth and institution:A tale of two earthquakes[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2014,84:52-66.
[4]TVERSKY A,KAHNEMAN D.Judgment under uncertaintyheuristics and biases[J].Science,1974,185(4157):1124-1131.
[5]TZENG G H,CHEN Y W.Implementing an effective schedule for reconstructing post-earthquake road-network based on asym-metric traffic assignment-An application of genetic algorithm[J].Operations and Quantitative Management,1998,4(3):229-246.
[6]LAW R,AU N.A neural network model to forecast Japanese demand for travel to Hong Kong[J].Tourism Management,1999,20(1):89-97.
[7]ARA-NA J E,LEóN C J.The impact of terrorism on tourism demand[J].Annals of Tourism Research,35(2):299-315.
[8]WANG Y S.The impact of crisis events and macroeconomic activity on Taiwan’s international inbound tourism demand[J].Tourism Management,2009,30(1):75-82.
[9]SUN Gennian.Foundation and significance of background trend line of tourists from abroad in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,1998,18(5):442-448.[孙根年.我国境外旅游本底趋势线的建立及科学意义[J].地理科学,1998,18(5):442-448.]
[10]SUN Gennian,ZHOU Ruina,MA Lijun,et al.Impact of five important events on China provincial inbound tourism in 2008:An analysis in high-resolution based on the TBL model[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(12):1437-1446.[孙根年,周瑞娜,马丽君,等.2008年五大事件对中国入境旅游的影响--基于本底趋势线模型高分辨率的分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(12):1437-1446.]
[11]ZHANG Yujuan.Determinants of China Inbound Tourism Based on Double-log Linear Regress Model[D].Hefei:University of Science and Technology of China,2008.[张玉娟.基于双对数线性模型的中国入境旅游需求影响因素研究[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2008.]
[12]WANG Chunyang,HUANG Fucai.A study on the factors determining the demand for China inbound tourism-Taking foreign source market[J].Journal of Business Economics,2009,9:88-96.[王纯阳,黄福才.中国入境旅游需求影响因素分析及预测--以外国客源市场为例[J].商业经济与管理,2009,(9):88-96.]
[13]WANG Zheng,YUAN Yujie,XIONG Wen.The impact of megaevents on Shanghai.s demand for inbound travel:Based on the analysis of ADL model[J].Tourism Tribune,2010,25(4):44-49.[王铮,袁宇杰,熊文.重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响--基于ADL模型的分析[J].旅游学刊,2010,25(4):44-49.]
[14]YAO Pei,LIU Xibo,ZHANG Qian.Model based double logarithmic in the analysis of influence factors on Beijing inbound tourism demand[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(11):15-23.[姚沛,刘喜波,张茜.基于双对数线性模型的北京市入境旅游需求影响因素分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(11):15-23.]
[15]ATHIYAMAN A,ROBERTSON R W.Time series forecasting?1techniques:Short-term planning in tourism[J].International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management,1992,4(4):8-11.
[16]HUANG J H,MIN C H J.Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism:The Taiwan case[J].Tourism Management,2002,23(2):145-154.
[17]XIN Yaping,WU Jinfeng,GAO Peipei,et al.Quantitative assessment of impact of the“5·12”earthquake on tourism in Sichuan province[J].Statistics&Decision,2010,17:91-93.[辛亚平,吴晋峰,高佩佩,等.“5·12”地震对四川省旅游业影响的定量评估[J].统计与决策,2010,17:91-93.]
[18]ZHU Yingbo,GE Quansheng,WEI Xiaoan,et al.A study on the effect of the SARS epidemic on the international tourist arrivals in China[J].Geographical Research,2003,22(5):551-559.[朱迎波,葛全胜,魏小安,等.SARS对中国入境旅游人数影响的研究[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):551-559.]
[19]ZHU Mingfang,LIU Simin.The application of TRAMO/SEATS model to measure the impact of crisis events on tourism[J].Tourism Tribune,2007,22(6):69-74.[朱明芳,刘思敏.TRAMO/SEATS在危机事件中对旅游影响研究的应用[J].旅游学刊,2007,22(6):69-74.]
[20]BOX G E P,TIAO G C.Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1975,70:70-79.
[21]ENDERS W,SANDLER T,CAULEY J.Assessing the impact of terrorist thwarting policies:An intervention time series approach[J].Defense Economics,1990,(2):1-18.
[22]ENDERS W,SANDLER T,PARISE G F.An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism[J].Kyklos,1992,(45):531-554.
[23]BONHAM C,GANGNES B.Intervention analysis with cointegrated time series:The case of the Hawaii hotel room tax[J].Applied Economics,1996,28(10):1281-1293.
[24]MIN C H J.Intervention analysis of inbound tourism:A case study of Taiwan[J].Advances in Hospitality&Leisure,2008,4(8):53-74.
[25]ABADIE A,GARDEAZABAL J.The economic costs of conflict:A case study of the Basque country[J].The American Economic Review,2003,93(1):113-132.
[26]PODESTA F.The economic impact of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia autonomy:A synthetic control analysis of asymmetric Italian Federalism[J].The Annals of Regional Science,2017,58(1):21-37.
[27]ABADIE A,GARDEAZABAL J.Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies:Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,2010,105(490):493-505.
[28]LIU Jiayan,FAN Ziying.Evaluation of the effectiveness of Chinese property tax pilot:A study based on synthetic control method[J].The Journal of World Economy,2013,(11):117-135.[刘甲炎,范子英.中国房产税试点的效果评估:基于合成控制法的研究[J].世界经济,2013,(11):117-135.]
[29]ZHENG Yi,LIN Enhui,YU Jianhui.If the Melamine incident lead to a sharp increase in the import of dairy products:An empirical study based on the synthetic control method[J].Journal of Agrotechnical Economics,2015,(2):109-117.[郑义,林恩惠,余建辉.三聚氰胺事件导致了乳制品进口剧增吗--基于合成控制法的经验研究[J].农业技术经济,2015,(2):109-117.]
[30]BAI J,NG S.Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models[J].Econometrica,2002,70(1):191-221.?33
(1)WORLD TRAVEL&TOURISM COUNCIL.Executive Summary 2017[EB/OL].www.wttc.org,2017-10-11.[世界旅游及旅行理事会.2017执行总结[EB/OL].www.wttc.org,2017-10-11.]?24
(1)STATISTICAL BUREAU OF SICHUAN.Sichuan Statistical Yearbook for 2017[EB/OL].http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/tjcbw/tjnj/2017/zk/indexch.htm,2017-12-06.[四川省统计局.2017四川统计年鉴[EB/OL].http://tjj.sc.gov.cn/tjcbw/tjnj/2017/zk/indexch.htm,2017-12-06.]
(2)MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURISM OF THE PEOPLE’SREPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Yearbook of China Tourism for 2009[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.[中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.2009中国旅游年鉴[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.]?27
(1)THE STATE COUNCIL INFORMATION OFFICE OF THEPEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Wenchuan earthquake caused845.1 billion yuan of direct economic losses,of which 91.3%were in Sichuan,5.8%in Gansu and 2.9%in Shaanxi[EB/OL].www.scio.gov.cn,2018-09-04.[中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室.汶川地震造成直接经济损失8451亿元,其中四川的损失占到总损失的91.3%,甘肃占5.8%,陕西占2.9%[EB/OL].www.scio.gov.cn,2018-09-04.]?8
(1)MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURISM OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Yearbook of China Tourism for 1999[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.[中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.1999中国旅游年鉴[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.]
(2)MINISTRY OF CULTURE AND TOURISM OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA.The Yearbook of China Tourism for 2004[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.[中华人民共和国文化和旅游部.2004中国旅游年鉴[EB/OL].http://zwgk.mct.gov.cn,2017-12-06.]??129
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