影响杭州人体舒适度的城市因素分析
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摘要
城市的热环境与城市因子之间有某种必然的联系,为了研究两者之间的关系,本文以人体舒适度为研究视角,分析影响人体舒适度变化的主要城市因子。该研究首先采用了热气候指数法计算1980—2017年杭州夏季高温不舒适日数,并统计其变化趋势。运用熵权优化的灰色关联度模型,确立各影响因子的权重,分析城市化因子与高温不舒适日数之间的关联关系。结果表明:(1)38年来,杭州高温不舒适日数的平均为30.6 d,气候倾向率为6.87 d·(10 a)~(-1),呈现显著上升趋势。年代际变化特征表明,高温不舒适日数主要集中在7、8月,并在1992—1993年高温不舒适日数发生由少到多的突变。(2)灰关联熵结果显示,在十二个指标因子中,第二产业占地区生产总值比重所占权重最大,公路客运量所占权重占第二位,所占权重最小的是人口密度。(3)公路客运量和第二产业占地区生产总值比重与高温不舒适日数的关联度均成强度相关联,而园林绿地面积、建成区绿化覆盖面积、人口密度等剩下的十个因子均成中度相关联。综上所述,灰色理论在多因子关联系统预测中具有优越性,能够有效分析影响高温不舒适日数的主要城市因子,在实际应用中具有一定价值。
There is a certain necessary connection between urban thermal environment and urban factors.In order to study the connection,this paper analyzes the main urban factors impacting human comfort degree from the perspective of human comfort degree.We adopt the way of thermal climatic index to calculate the uncomfortable days with high temperatures in Hangzhou from 1980 to 2017,and sum the change trend.By means of gray relational analysis of entropy-based optimization,we determine the weights of different factors and analyze the connection between urban factors and uncomfortable days with high temperature.The results are as follows.First,over the past 38 years,the average uncomfortable days with high temperature in Hangzhou are 30.6 d,and the climate tendency rate is 6.87 d·(10 a)~(-1),showing a significant upward trend.The interdecadal variation changes dramatically.The uncomfortably days with high temperature mostly appear in July and August and notably the uncomfortable days with high temperature appear more frequently from 1992 to 1993.Second,according to the results of gray relational analysis of entropy-based optimization,among 12 index factors,the weight of the occupying areas of secondary industry is the biggest,with highway passenger volume standing the next.Population density accounts for the smallest proportion.Third,highway passenger volume and the weight of occupying areas of secondary areas strongly correlate with days with high temperature, while the other ten factors such as garden area,green coverage area of built-up area,and population density correlate with days with high temperature moderately.In conclusion,gray relational analysis has advantages in the prediction of multiple factor connection.It can effectively analyze the main urban factors impacting days with high temperatures and has some values in application.
There is a certain necessary connection between urban thermal environment and urban factors.In order to study the connection,this paper analyzes the main urban factors impacting human comfort degree from the perspective of human comfort degree.We adopt the way of thermal climatic index to calculate the uncomfortable days with high temperatures in Hangzhou from 1980 to 2017,and sum the change trend.By means of gray relational analysis of entropy-based optimization,we determine the weights of different factors and analyze the connection between urban factors and uncomfortable days with high temperature.The results are as follows.First,over the past 38 years,the average uncomfortable days with high temperature in Hangzhou are 30.6 d,and the climate tendency rate is 6.87 d·(10 a)~(-1),showing a significant upward trend.The interdecadal variation changes dramatically.The uncomfortably days with high temperature mostly appear in July and August and notably the uncomfortable days with high temperature appear more frequently from 1992 to 1993.Second,according to the results of gray relational analysis of entropy-based optimization,among 12 index factors,the weight of the occupying areas of secondary industry is the biggest,with highway passenger volume standing the next.Population density accounts for the smallest proportion.Third,highway passenger volume and the weight of occupying areas of secondary areas strongly correlate with days with high temperature, while the other ten factors such as garden area,green coverage area of built-up area,and population density correlate with days with high temperature moderately.In conclusion,gray relational analysis has advantages in the prediction of multiple factor connection.It can effectively analyze the main urban factors impacting days with high temperatures and has some values in application.
引文
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丑洁明,董文杰,延晓冬,2016.关于气候变化对社会经济系统影响的机理和途径的探讨[J].大气科学,40(1):191-200.Chou J M,Dong W J,Yan X D,2016.The impact of climate change on the socioeconomic system:a mechanistic analysis[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,40(1):191-200(in Chinese).
党冰,房小怡,吕红亮,等,2017.基于气象研究的城市通风廊道构建初探一以南京江北新区为例[J].气象,43(9):1130-1137.Dang B,Fang X Y,Lii H L,et al,2017.Preliminary study on building urban ventilation corridors based on meteorological research—Taking Nanjing Jiangbei New Region as the example[J].Meteor Mon,43(9):1130-1137(in Chinese).
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葛伟强,周红妹,杨何群,2010.基于MODIS数据的近8年长三角城市群热岛特征及演变分析[J].气象,36(11):77-81.Ge W Q,Zhou H M,Yang H Q,2010.Characteristics analysis on heat island effect in Yangtze Delta urban agglomerations in recent 8years by MODIS data[J].Meteor Mon,36(11):77-81(in Chinese).
韩玮,苏敬,王琳,2013,长江三角洲城市发展与人体舒适度的关系[J].应用气象学报,24(3):380-384.Han W,Su J,Wang L,2013.Effects of urbanization on human comfort in the Yangtze River Delta[J].J Appl Meteor Sci,24(3):380-384(in Chinese).
贺祥,林振山,刘会玉,等,2016.基于灰色关联模型对江苏省PM_(2.5)浓度影响因素的分析[J].地理学报,71(7):1119-1129.He X,Lin Z S,Liu H Y,et al,2016.Analysis of the driving factors of PM_(2.5)in Jiansu Province based on grey correlation model[J].Acta Geographica Sin,71(7):1119-1129(in Chinese).
黄卓,陈辉,田华,2011.高温热浪指标研究[J].气象,37(3):345-351.Huang Z,Chen H,Tian H,2011.Research on the heat wave index[J].Meteor Mon,37(3):345-351(in Chinese).
李全胜,王兆骞,杨忠恩,1994.气候变化对长江三角洲农业生态系统的影响[J].生态学报,14(3):295-299.Li Q S,Wang Z Q,Yang Z E,1994.Effects of climate change on agroecological systems in the Yangtze Delta[J].Acta Ecol Sin,14(3):295-299(in Chinese).
孙美淑,李山,2015.气候舒适度评价的经验模型:回顾与展望[J].旅游学刊,30(12):19-34.Sun M S,Li S,2015.Empirical indices evaluating climate comfortableness:review and prospect[J].Tourism Tribune,30(12):19-34(in Chinese).
唐进时,申双和,华荣强,等,2015.热气候指数评价中国南方城市夏季舒适度[J].气象科学,35(6):769-774.Tang J S,Shen S H,Hua R Q,et al,2015.Assessment on summer comfort level of southern cities in China by UTCI[J].J Meteor Sci,35(6):769-774(in Chinese).
王传琛,嵇瑞发,刘际松,1991.杭州城区的自然季节和天气类型[J].杭州大学学报(自然科学版),18(3):349-356.Wang C C,Ji R F,Liu J S,1991.The natural seasons and weather types of the urban districts of Hangzhou[J].J Zhejiang Univ(Sci Ed),18(3):349-356(in Chinese).
王伟武,李国梁,薛瑾,2009.杭州城市热岛空间分布及缓减对策[J].自然灾害学报,18(6):14-20.Wang W W,Li G L,Xue J,2009.Spatial distribution of urban heat island in Hangzhou and its mitigation countermeasures[J].J Nat Dis,18(6):14-20(in Chinese).
王志春,徐海秋,汪宇,2017.珠三角城市集群化发展对热岛强度的影响[J].气象,43(12):1554-1561.Wang Z C,Xu H Q,Wang Y,2017.Influence of Pearl River Delta urban cluster development on urban heat island intensity[J].Meteor Mon,43(12):1554-1561(in Chinese).
吴志丰,陈利顶,2016.热舒适度评价与城市热环境研究:现状、特点与展望[J].生态学杂志,35(5):1364-1371.Wu Z F,Chen L D,2016.Thermal comfort assessment and urban thermal environment research:review and prospective[J].Chin J Ecol,35(5):1364-1371(in Chinese).
肖安,周长艳,2017.基于超热因子的中国热浪事件气候特征分析[J].气象,43(8):943-952.Xiao A,Zhou C Y,2017.Characteristic analysis of the heat wave events over China based on excess heat factor[J].Meteor Mon,43(8):943-952(in Chinese).
谢志清,杜银,曾燕,等,2017.长江三角洲城市集群化发展对极端高温事件空间格局的影响[J].科学通报,62(2/3):233-244.Xie Z Q,Du Y,Zeng Y,et al,2017.Impact of urban clusters on spatial pattern of extreme high temperature events over Yangtze River Delta[J].Chin Sci Bull,62(2/3):233-244(in Chinese).
闫业超,岳书平,刘学华,等,2013.国内外气候舒适度评价研究进展[J].地球科学进展,28(10):1119-1125.Yan Y C,Yue S P,Liu X H,et al,2013.Advances in assessment of bioclimatic comfort conditions at home and abroad[J].Adv Earth Sci,28(10):1119-1125(in Chinese).
杨续超,陈锋,祝炜平,等,2014.城市化对浙江省夏季极端高温事件的影响[J].热带气象学报,30(4):719-726.Yang X C,Chen F,Zhu W P,et al,2014.Urbanization effects on observed change in summer extreme heat events over Zhejiang Province[J].J Trop Meteor,30(4):719-726(in Chinese).
于庚康,徐敏,高苹,等,2012.江苏冬夏季人体舒适度指数异常的背景场研究[J].气象,38(5):593-600.Yu G K,Xu M,Gao P,et al,2012.Study on physical background of comfort index of human body anomaly in winter and summer in Jiangsu Province[J].Meteor Mon,38(5):593-600(in Chinese).
喻丽,2015.中国近30年太阳日总辐射状况及其气候学模型研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学.Yu L,2015.Study on daily total solar radiation over the past 30 years and its climatology model in China[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology(in Chinese).
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