北极海冰漂移对多年冰分布的影响研究
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摘要
本文基于美国冰雪数据中心(NSIDC)提供的海冰漂移和冰龄数据,分析了1985-2014年北极海冰漂移场的主要模态和多年冰的分布特征,初步评估了海冰漂移对多年冰分布的影响。多年冰面积序列的小波变换结果显示多年冰面积的显著周期为1年和5年,其中5年周期在2007年之后变得显著。海冰漂移速度的经验正交分解的冬季第一模态向穿极流模态的转化,穿极流模态在30年间方差贡献率的逐步上升,穿极流态流轴位置的偏移与多年冰的分布在三个年代相吻合,揭示了二者的密切关系。波弗特海域在三个10年间速度趋势的上升,对于多年冰的输运起到了重要的作用。从三个时间段冬夏两季速度的变化来看,冬季是海冰漂移速度增加的主要时期,与该海域内多年冰面积的下降形成了正反馈关系。
Based on the sea ice drift and sea ice age data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC), this paper analyzes the main modes of ice drift in Arctic sea ice from 1985 to 2014 and the distribution characteristics of multi-year ice. The results of the wavelet transform of the multi-year ice area show that the significant period of the multi-year ice area is 1 year and 5 years, and the 5 years period becomes significant after 2007. The empirically orthogonal decomposition of the sea-ice drift indicates that the first mode in winter transfers to the transpolar drift mode. The contribution of the variance of the transpolar drift mode increases gradually in the 30 year. The position of the axis in the transpolar drift mode is shifted, which is consistent with the distribution of multi-year ice in the three decades, indicating the close relationship between the two. The increased trend of the drifting speed in the Beaufort Sea area over three decades played an important role in the transport of multi-year ice. The changes in the speeds in winter and summer seasons show that winter is the main period for the increase in sea ice drift, which forms a positive feedback relationship with the decline of the multi-year ice area in the three decades.
Based on the sea ice drift and sea ice age data provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC), this paper analyzes the main modes of ice drift in Arctic sea ice from 1985 to 2014 and the distribution characteristics of multi-year ice. The results of the wavelet transform of the multi-year ice area show that the significant period of the multi-year ice area is 1 year and 5 years, and the 5 years period becomes significant after 2007. The empirically orthogonal decomposition of the sea-ice drift indicates that the first mode in winter transfers to the transpolar drift mode. The contribution of the variance of the transpolar drift mode increases gradually in the 30 year. The position of the axis in the transpolar drift mode is shifted, which is consistent with the distribution of multi-year ice in the three decades, indicating the close relationship between the two. The increased trend of the drifting speed in the Beaufort Sea area over three decades played an important role in the transport of multi-year ice. The changes in the speeds in winter and summer seasons show that winter is the main period for the increase in sea ice drift, which forms a positive feedback relationship with the decline of the multi-year ice area in the three decades.
引文
[1]张占海.北极海冰快速变化:观测、机制及天气气候效应[M].北京:海洋出版社,2016.
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[13]Comiso J C.Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover[J].BOSTON:Journal of Climate,2012,25(4):1176-1193.
[14]Comiso J C,Parkinson C L,Gersten R,et al.Comiso JC,Parkinson CL,Gersten R,Stock L.Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover[J].WASHINGTON:Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(1):1703.
[15]Serreze M C,Fetterer F,Weeks W F.CRYOSPHERE|Sea Ice[J].Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences,2015:217-226.
[16]Lafreniere M,Sharp M.Wavelet analysis of inter-annual variability in the runoff regimes of glacial and nival stream catchments[M].ProQuest Information and Learning,2003:1093-1118.
[17]吕庆平,卢姁,朱娟,等.冬季北太平洋流场异常主要模态与PDO及NPGO的关系[J].杭州:海洋学研究,2015,33(2):1-7.
[18]JC,Notz D.Drivers of variability in Arctic sea‐ice drift speed[J].WASHINGTON:Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,2014,119(9):5755-5775.
[19]左正道,高郭平,程灵巧,等.1979-2012年北极海冰运动学特征初步分析[J].北京:海洋学报,2016,38(5):57-69.
[20]武炳义,卞林根,张人禾.冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响[J].上海:极地研究,2004,16(3):211-220.
[21]Olason E,Notz D.Drivers of variability in Arctic sea‐ice drift speed[J].WASHINGTON:Journal of Geophysical Research O-ceans,2015,119(9):5755-5775.
[22]丁睿彬,陈大可,姜良红.黑潮流轴在吕宋海峡的变化分析[J].杭州:海洋学研究,2013,31(2):16-25.
[23]Hutchings J K,Rigor I G.Role of ice dynamics in anomalous ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea during 2006and 2007[J].WASH-INGTON:Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,2012,117(C8):-.
[24]Kwok R.Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].WASHINGTON:Geophysical Research Letters,2000,27(6):775 778.
[2]苏洁,徐栋,赵进平,等.北极加速变暖条件下西北航道的海冰分布变化特征[J].上海:极地研究,2010,22(2):104-124.
[3]刘艳霞,王泽民,刘婷婷.1979-2014年南北极海冰变化特征分析[J].北京:遥感信息,2016,31(02):24-29.
[4]Wang X,Zhao J.Seasonal and inter-annual variations of the primary types of the Arctic sea-ice drifting patterns[J].Shanghai:Advances in Polar Science,2012,23(2):72-81.
[5]Kwok R,Spreen G,Pang S.Arctic sea ice circulation and drift speed:Decadal trends and ocean currents[J].WASHINGTON:Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,2013,118(5):2408-2425.
[6]Comiso J C.Abrupt decline in the Arctic winter sea ice cover[J].WASHINGTON:Geophysical Research Letters,2006,33(18):488-506.
[7]Maslanik J A,Fowler C,Stroeve J,et al.A younger,thinner Arctic ice cover:Increased potential for rapid,extensive sea‐ice loss[J].WASHINGTON:Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(24):497-507.
[8]Torrence C,Compo G P.A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis[J].BOSTON:Bulletin of the AmericanMeteorological Society,1998,79(79):61-78.
[9]吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.
[10]赵进平,史久新,王召民,等.北极海冰减退引起的北极放大机理与全球气候效应[J].兰州:地球科学进展,2015,30(9):985-995.
[11]魏立新.北极海冰变化及其气候效应研究[D].中国海洋大学,2008.
[12]Rigor I G,Wallace J M,Colony R L.Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation[J].BOSTON:Journal of Climate,2002,15(18):2648-2663.
[13]Comiso J C.Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover[J].BOSTON:Journal of Climate,2012,25(4):1176-1193.
[14]Comiso J C,Parkinson C L,Gersten R,et al.Comiso JC,Parkinson CL,Gersten R,Stock L.Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover[J].WASHINGTON:Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(1):1703.
[15]Serreze M C,Fetterer F,Weeks W F.CRYOSPHERE|Sea Ice[J].Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences,2015:217-226.
[16]Lafreniere M,Sharp M.Wavelet analysis of inter-annual variability in the runoff regimes of glacial and nival stream catchments[M].ProQuest Information and Learning,2003:1093-1118.
[17]吕庆平,卢姁,朱娟,等.冬季北太平洋流场异常主要模态与PDO及NPGO的关系[J].杭州:海洋学研究,2015,33(2):1-7.
[18]JC,Notz D.Drivers of variability in Arctic sea‐ice drift speed[J].WASHINGTON:Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,2014,119(9):5755-5775.
[19]左正道,高郭平,程灵巧,等.1979-2012年北极海冰运动学特征初步分析[J].北京:海洋学报,2016,38(5):57-69.
[20]武炳义,卞林根,张人禾.冬季北极涛动和北极海冰变化对东亚气候变化的影响[J].上海:极地研究,2004,16(3):211-220.
[21]Olason E,Notz D.Drivers of variability in Arctic sea‐ice drift speed[J].WASHINGTON:Journal of Geophysical Research O-ceans,2015,119(9):5755-5775.
[22]丁睿彬,陈大可,姜良红.黑潮流轴在吕宋海峡的变化分析[J].杭州:海洋学研究,2013,31(2):16-25.
[23]Hutchings J K,Rigor I G.Role of ice dynamics in anomalous ice conditions in the Beaufort Sea during 2006and 2007[J].WASH-INGTON:Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans,2012,117(C8):-.
[24]Kwok R.Recent changes in Arctic Ocean sea ice motion associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation[J].WASHINGTON:Geophysical Research Letters,2000,27(6):775 778.