基于专利指标的新兴电化学储能技术未来产业影响力比较
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摘要
为探索更加完善的新兴电化学储能技术未来产业影响力比较体系,引入技术价值度、国际市场布局、合作研发强度、产学研合作密度、专利申请量等指标,依据改进粗糙集属性重要度权重计算方法,对锌空气电池、钠离子电池、铝空气电池与钠硫电池进行连续6年的未来产业影响力综合比较。研究结果表明:锌空气电池未来产业影响力最接近于钠硫电池,但仍差距很大,需加强技术合作;钠离子电池产业影响力近年呈"井喷式"增长态势,未来产业影响力仅次于锌空气电池,在保持产学研合作力度的同时需注重成果转化;铝空气电池未来产业影响力最小,需加大研发投入以取得技术进步。
In order to explore a more perfect comparative system of future industry influence of new electrochemical energy storage technology, this paper introduces the index of technology value degree, international market layout, cooperation R&D intensity, cooperation density of industry, university and research, patent application amount, etc. According to the improved rough set attribute importance weight calculation method, the future industrial influence of zinc air battery, sodium ion battery, aluminum air battery and sodium sulfur battery are compared for 6 consecutive years. The results show that: the future industry influence of zinc air battery is the closest to that of sodium sulfur battery, but there is still a big gap between them, so it is necessary to strengthen technical cooperation; and the influence of sodium ion battery industry has been increasing in recent years, its future industrial influence is second only to the zinc air battery, it is necessary to pay attention to transformation of the results while maintaining cooperation of industry, education and research; while aluminum air battery has the least influence in the future industry, so it needs to increase R&D investment to achieve technological progress.
In order to explore a more perfect comparative system of future industry influence of new electrochemical energy storage technology, this paper introduces the index of technology value degree, international market layout, cooperation R&D intensity, cooperation density of industry, university and research, patent application amount, etc. According to the improved rough set attribute importance weight calculation method, the future industrial influence of zinc air battery, sodium ion battery, aluminum air battery and sodium sulfur battery are compared for 6 consecutive years. The results show that: the future industry influence of zinc air battery is the closest to that of sodium sulfur battery, but there is still a big gap between them, so it is necessary to strengthen technical cooperation; and the influence of sodium ion battery industry has been increasing in recent years, its future industrial influence is second only to the zinc air battery, it is necessary to pay attention to transformation of the results while maintaining cooperation of industry, education and research; while aluminum air battery has the least influence in the future industry, so it needs to increase R&D investment to achieve technological progress.
引文
[1]封红丽.2016年全球储能技术发展现状与展望[J].中国产业经济动态, 2016 (19):39-43.
[2]国泰君安.新能源:储能商业化临近[J].股市动态分析, 2017 (16):47-47.
[3]MA J, PORTER A L. Analyzing patent topical information to identify technology pathways and potential opportunities[J].Scientometrics, 2015, 102(1):811-827.
[4]戴, 休梅克.沃顿论新兴技术管理[M].石莹, 译.北京:华夏出版社,2002:4-10.
[5]银路,石忠国,王敏,等.新兴技术:概念、特点和管理新思维[J].现代管理科学, 2005(4): 5-7.
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[7]卢文光.新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2008.
[8]PORTER A L. Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2004,71(3):287-303.
[9]王吉武,黄鲁成,卢文光.基于文献计量的新兴技术商业化潜力客观评价研究[J].现代管理科学, 2008 (5):69-70.
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[11]ALTUNTAS S, DERELI T, KUSIAK A. Forecasting technology success based on patent data[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015(96):202-214.
[12]蔡爽.基于专利的新兴技术商业化潜力评价研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2009.
[13]钱越,黄颖,郭颖,等.基于专利文献的技术商业化潜力研究:以3D打印技术为例[J].情报杂志, 2016,35(10): 59-64.
[14]HESLOP L A, MCGREGOR E, GRIFFITH M. Development of a technology readiness assessment measure: the cloverleaf model of technology transfer[J].Journal of Technology Transfer, 2001,26(4):369-384.
[15]汪江桦,冷伏海,汤建国.基于专利的新兴技术未来产业影响力评价研究[J].情报杂志, 2014,33(5):44-48.
[16]中关村储能产业技术联盟.储能产业研究[J].电器工业, 2016(6):28-33.
[17]聂双.展示创新力量改变人类生活(上):2016年十大新兴技术[J].中国对外贸易, 2016(8):61-63.
[18]曹明,陈荣,孙济庆,等.基于专利分析的技术竞争力比较研究[J].科学学研究, 2016,34(3):380-385.
[19]李敏,陈振标,刘敏榕.基于专利视角的产业集群技术竞争力评价:以对讲机产业集群为例[J].情报探索, 2016(2):7-12.
[20]林甫.面向产业竞争力评价的专利指标体系构建及应用[J].图书情报工作, 2014, 58(14):103-109.
[21]苏平,全骞.基于专利计量的搜索引擎技术竞争态势研究[J].现代情报, 2016, 36(9):128-135.
[22]马婷婷,汪雪锋,朱东华,等.基于专利的技术机会分析方法研究[J].科学学研究, 2014,32(3): 334-342.
[23]林静静,林甫.基于专利指标的企业技术竞争力评价框架研究[J].现代情报, 2016, 36(10):22-27.
[24]STONE R. Sigmoids[J].Journal of Applied Statistics, 1980,7(1):59-119.
[25]赵莉晓.基于专利分析的RFID技术预测和专利战略研究:从技术生命周期角度[J].科学学与科学技术管理, 2012,33(11):24-30.
[26]马廷灿,李桂菊,姜山,等.专利质量评价指标及其在专利计量中的应用[J].图书情报工作, 2012,56(24):89-95.
[27]单晓红,庞婷,蒋国瑞,等.基于 Netlogo 的新兴技术产业化过程仿真研究[J].科技管理研究, 2015(4):93-96.
[28]韩祯祥,张琦,文福拴.粗糙集理论及其应用[J].信息与控制, 1998,27(1):37-45.
[29]周吉意.基于粗糙集的新兴技术商业化潜力评价研究[D].南宁:广西大学,2012.
[30]LI W, SHANG Y, NIE C. Evaluation of desulfuration projects decision based on attribute importance degree of rough set and TOPSIS[J].International Seminar on Business & Information Management, 2009(2):19-22.
[31]ZHENG X, HUANG Y, XIONG X W, et al. Research on evaluation of network planning based on rough set[C] France:Atlantis Press, 2017.
[32]苗夺谦.粗糙集理论、算法与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008:157.
[33]孙立民,金祥菊.基于粗糙集的组合属性重要度确定单属性重要度新方法[J].广东石油化工学院学报, 2013,23(6):57-59.
[34]孙立民.改进的粗糙集属性权重确定方法[J].计算机工程与应用, 2014,50(5):43-45.
[35]马景灵,文九巴,邵海洋,等.铝空气电池研究现状 [C].洛阳:全国热处理学会,2011.
1)因论文篇幅所限,本文确定的钠硫电池、锌空气电池、钠离子电池和铝空气电池专利检索式在文内不详列,有需要者请联系作者提供。
[2]国泰君安.新能源:储能商业化临近[J].股市动态分析, 2017 (16):47-47.
[3]MA J, PORTER A L. Analyzing patent topical information to identify technology pathways and potential opportunities[J].Scientometrics, 2015, 102(1):811-827.
[4]戴, 休梅克.沃顿论新兴技术管理[M].石莹, 译.北京:华夏出版社,2002:4-10.
[5]银路,石忠国,王敏,等.新兴技术:概念、特点和管理新思维[J].现代管理科学, 2005(4): 5-7.
[6]汪江桦, 汤建国, 韩莉英.新兴技术未来产业影响力之作用机理研究[J].科技管理研究, 2014, 315(17):78-81.
[7]卢文光.新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其成长性研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2008.
[8]PORTER A L. Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2004,71(3):287-303.
[9]王吉武,黄鲁成,卢文光.基于文献计量的新兴技术商业化潜力客观评价研究[J].现代管理科学, 2008 (5):69-70.
[10]PILKINGTON A. Technology portfolio alignment as an indicator of commercialization: an investigation of fuel cell patenting[J].Technovation, 2004, 24(10):761-771.
[11]ALTUNTAS S, DERELI T, KUSIAK A. Forecasting technology success based on patent data[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2015(96):202-214.
[12]蔡爽.基于专利的新兴技术商业化潜力评价研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2009.
[13]钱越,黄颖,郭颖,等.基于专利文献的技术商业化潜力研究:以3D打印技术为例[J].情报杂志, 2016,35(10): 59-64.
[14]HESLOP L A, MCGREGOR E, GRIFFITH M. Development of a technology readiness assessment measure: the cloverleaf model of technology transfer[J].Journal of Technology Transfer, 2001,26(4):369-384.
[15]汪江桦,冷伏海,汤建国.基于专利的新兴技术未来产业影响力评价研究[J].情报杂志, 2014,33(5):44-48.
[16]中关村储能产业技术联盟.储能产业研究[J].电器工业, 2016(6):28-33.
[17]聂双.展示创新力量改变人类生活(上):2016年十大新兴技术[J].中国对外贸易, 2016(8):61-63.
[18]曹明,陈荣,孙济庆,等.基于专利分析的技术竞争力比较研究[J].科学学研究, 2016,34(3):380-385.
[19]李敏,陈振标,刘敏榕.基于专利视角的产业集群技术竞争力评价:以对讲机产业集群为例[J].情报探索, 2016(2):7-12.
[20]林甫.面向产业竞争力评价的专利指标体系构建及应用[J].图书情报工作, 2014, 58(14):103-109.
[21]苏平,全骞.基于专利计量的搜索引擎技术竞争态势研究[J].现代情报, 2016, 36(9):128-135.
[22]马婷婷,汪雪锋,朱东华,等.基于专利的技术机会分析方法研究[J].科学学研究, 2014,32(3): 334-342.
[23]林静静,林甫.基于专利指标的企业技术竞争力评价框架研究[J].现代情报, 2016, 36(10):22-27.
[24]STONE R. Sigmoids[J].Journal of Applied Statistics, 1980,7(1):59-119.
[25]赵莉晓.基于专利分析的RFID技术预测和专利战略研究:从技术生命周期角度[J].科学学与科学技术管理, 2012,33(11):24-30.
[26]马廷灿,李桂菊,姜山,等.专利质量评价指标及其在专利计量中的应用[J].图书情报工作, 2012,56(24):89-95.
[27]单晓红,庞婷,蒋国瑞,等.基于 Netlogo 的新兴技术产业化过程仿真研究[J].科技管理研究, 2015(4):93-96.
[28]韩祯祥,张琦,文福拴.粗糙集理论及其应用[J].信息与控制, 1998,27(1):37-45.
[29]周吉意.基于粗糙集的新兴技术商业化潜力评价研究[D].南宁:广西大学,2012.
[30]LI W, SHANG Y, NIE C. Evaluation of desulfuration projects decision based on attribute importance degree of rough set and TOPSIS[J].International Seminar on Business & Information Management, 2009(2):19-22.
[31]ZHENG X, HUANG Y, XIONG X W, et al. Research on evaluation of network planning based on rough set[C] France:Atlantis Press, 2017.
[32]苗夺谦.粗糙集理论、算法与应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2008:157.
[33]孙立民,金祥菊.基于粗糙集的组合属性重要度确定单属性重要度新方法[J].广东石油化工学院学报, 2013,23(6):57-59.
[34]孙立民.改进的粗糙集属性权重确定方法[J].计算机工程与应用, 2014,50(5):43-45.
[35]马景灵,文九巴,邵海洋,等.铝空气电池研究现状 [C].洛阳:全国热处理学会,2011.
1)因论文篇幅所限,本文确定的钠硫电池、锌空气电池、钠离子电池和铝空气电池专利检索式在文内不详列,有需要者请联系作者提供。