基于GIS的村镇避难场所和疏散通道规划方法研究——以神农架松柏镇区为例
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摘要
我国山区村镇防灾减灾意识和规划比较薄弱,不适应新时代发展要求。该文面向村镇,以避难场所和疏散通道为研究对象,从供需双向考虑出发,在总结公共设施区位模型和探讨村镇避难场所规划技术指标和评价指标的基础上,提出了基于GIS的村镇避难场所和疏散通道规划方法。首先,运用道路易损性评价方法规划疏散通道,作为避难场所规划的前提;其次,通过选址适宜性评价方法保证了避难场所的安全性和时效性,并利用现状避难场所评价方法对其进行局部优化;最后,针对现状没有或需要新增避难场所的情况,对避难人口总数和避难需求比例随时间变化进行估算,运用集合覆盖模型和最大化有容量限制覆盖模型进行新增避难场所规划,并对总体和单个避难场所进行评价。以神农架松柏镇区为例,完成了该规划方法的开发与应用,验证了其适用性与科学性。
The awareness and planning of disaster prevention and reduction in mountainous villages and towns in our country is relatively weak and does not meet the requirements of the new era.Moreover,most studies in emergency shelter planning have only been carried out in cities and earthquake-shelters.In this paper,planning support methods for rural emergency shelters and evacuation routes based on GIS are proposed on the basis of considerations of the supply and demand,the public facility location models,emergency shelter planning index and evaluation index.Firstly,the road vulnerability assessment method is utilized to plan the evacuation route,which is also a prerequisite for emergency shelter planning.Then,the site selection suitability evaluation method is used to ensure the safety and timeliness of shelters.In addition,the current emergency shelter evaluation methods are used for local optimization.Thirdly,the number of victims in shelters is estimated,and the minimize facilities model and the maximize coverage with capacity constrains model are used to plan new shelters during the post-disaster period.The shelters from the overall and the individual levels are also evaluated.Finally,taking Songbai Town in Shennongjia as an example,the development and application of this method has been demonstrated,and its applicability and scientific rationality have been verified.In future studies,planning support methods for rural emergency shelters and evacuation routes should focus more on combination of indoor and outdoor shelters,evacuation based on multiple scenarios,and evacuation simulation combined with behavior and psychological performance of victims.
The awareness and planning of disaster prevention and reduction in mountainous villages and towns in our country is relatively weak and does not meet the requirements of the new era.Moreover,most studies in emergency shelter planning have only been carried out in cities and earthquake-shelters.In this paper,planning support methods for rural emergency shelters and evacuation routes based on GIS are proposed on the basis of considerations of the supply and demand,the public facility location models,emergency shelter planning index and evaluation index.Firstly,the road vulnerability assessment method is utilized to plan the evacuation route,which is also a prerequisite for emergency shelter planning.Then,the site selection suitability evaluation method is used to ensure the safety and timeliness of shelters.In addition,the current emergency shelter evaluation methods are used for local optimization.Thirdly,the number of victims in shelters is estimated,and the minimize facilities model and the maximize coverage with capacity constrains model are used to plan new shelters during the post-disaster period.The shelters from the overall and the individual levels are also evaluated.Finally,taking Songbai Town in Shennongjia as an example,the development and application of this method has been demonstrated,and its applicability and scientific rationality have been verified.In future studies,planning support methods for rural emergency shelters and evacuation routes should focus more on combination of indoor and outdoor shelters,evacuation based on multiple scenarios,and evacuation simulation combined with behavior and psychological performance of victims.
引文
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[15] CHEN Z,CHEN X,LI Q,et al.The temporal hierarchy of shelters:A hierarchical location model for earthquake-shelter planning[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2013,27(8):1612-1630.
[16] 初建宇.防灾避难场所规划方法及其应用研究[D].天津:天津大学,2014.
[17] GB51143-2015 防灾避难场所设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2015.
[18] 刘少丽.城市应急避难场所区位选择与空间布局[D].南京:南京师范大学,2012.
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[20] 黄典剑,吴宗之,蔡嗣经,等.城市应急避难所的应急适应能力——基于层次分析法的评价方法[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):52-58.
[21] 桑晓磊.城市避震疏散交通系统及评价方法体系研究[J].上海城市规划,2013(4):50-55.
[22] 窦凯丽.城市防灾应急避难场所规划支持方法研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2014.
[23] 黄静,叶明武,王军,等.基于GIS的社区居民避震疏散区划方法及应用研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(2):204-210.
[24] LI H,ZHAO L,HUANG R,et al.Hierarchical earthquake shelter planning in urban areas:A case for Shanghai in China[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,22:431-446.
[25] ZHAO L,LI H,SUN Y,et al.Planning emergency shelters for urban disaster resilience:An integrated location-allocation modeling approach[J].Sustainability,2017,9(11):2098.
[2] 龙瀛,毛其智.城市规划支持系统的定义、目标和框架[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,50(3):335-337.
[3] 吴启涛.城市抗震防灾规划空间决策支持系统研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2010.
[4] 林晨,许彦曦,佟庆.城市应急避难场所规划研究——以深圳市龙岗区为例[J].规划师,2007,23(2):58-60.
[5] 初建宇,苏幼坡.村镇应急避难场所规划技术指标的探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(5):23-27.
[6] 单宝艳,邱芸,范开放,等.基于GIS和Huff模型的城市避震疏散区优化配置[J].地理与地理信息科学,2018,34(2):22-26.
[7] 胡映洁,吕斌.城市社区空间应急疏散能力评价模型构建及其应用——以北京市交道口社区为例[J].地理与地理信息科学,2015,31(1):120-124.
[8] 吴健宏,翁文国.应急避难场所的选址决策支持系统[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2011,51(5):632-636.
[9] 吴健宏,翁文国,倪顺江.基于GIS和Multi-Agent的城市应急疏散[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,50(8):1168-1172.
[10] 李久刚.城市应急避难场所服务区决策模型及选址优化方法研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2011.
[11] OWEN S H,DASKIN M S.Strategic facility location:A review[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1998,111(3):423-447.
[12] HUANG R,KIM S,MENEZES M.Facility location for large-scale emergencies[J].Annals of Operations Research,2010,181(1):271-286.
[13] NG M W,PARK J,WALLER S T.A Hybrid bilevel model for the optimal shelter assignment in emergency evacuations[J].Computer-Aided Civil & Infrastructure Engineering,2010,25(8):547-556.
[14] HUANG B,LIU N,CHANDRAMOULI M.A GIS supported Ant algorithm for the linear feature covering problem with distance constraints[J].Decision Support Systems,2006,42(2):1063-1075.
[15] CHEN Z,CHEN X,LI Q,et al.The temporal hierarchy of shelters:A hierarchical location model for earthquake-shelter planning[J].International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2013,27(8):1612-1630.
[16] 初建宇.防灾避难场所规划方法及其应用研究[D].天津:天津大学,2014.
[17] GB51143-2015 防灾避难场所设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2015.
[18] 刘少丽.城市应急避难场所区位选择与空间布局[D].南京:南京师范大学,2012.
[19] 蒋蓉.城乡统筹背景下成都市地震应急避难场所规划研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2012.
[20] 黄典剑,吴宗之,蔡嗣经,等.城市应急避难所的应急适应能力——基于层次分析法的评价方法[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):52-58.
[21] 桑晓磊.城市避震疏散交通系统及评价方法体系研究[J].上海城市规划,2013(4):50-55.
[22] 窦凯丽.城市防灾应急避难场所规划支持方法研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2014.
[23] 黄静,叶明武,王军,等.基于GIS的社区居民避震疏散区划方法及应用研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(2):204-210.
[24] LI H,ZHAO L,HUANG R,et al.Hierarchical earthquake shelter planning in urban areas:A case for Shanghai in China[J].International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2017,22:431-446.
[25] ZHAO L,LI H,SUN Y,et al.Planning emergency shelters for urban disaster resilience:An integrated location-allocation modeling approach[J].Sustainability,2017,9(11):2098.