摘要
为了合理制定城市的总体规划,保证城市的可持续性发展,通过对1985-2015年西安市人口总量的分析,从西安市的生育和死亡状况出发,运用马尔萨斯人口模型和Logistic模型对西安市未来20年的人口进行预测,并进行模型之间的比较,得出西安市未来20年人口的发展状况,以期对西安市统筹人口发展提供借鉴。预测结果表明:马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic模型均能满足预测精度要求。对于短期的人口预测而言,马尔萨斯人口模型的相对误差较小,可以获得较好的预测效果;对于长期的人口预测而言,Logistic模型则预测效果较好。
For the reasonable overall urban planning and sustainable development of Xi'an,the total population of Xi'an in the coming 20 years is forecast based on the analysis of Xi'an's total population from 1985 to 2015 by using the Malthus population model and the Logistic model.The two models are also compared.This study is expected to provide reference for population development in Xi'an.The results show that both models can give the accuracy required.For the prediction of short-term population,the Malthus population model,with smaller relative errors,can obtain good prediction results,while for long-term population prediction,the Logistic model is the better one.
引文
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