数学模型在西安市人口预测中的应用
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摘要
为了合理制定城市的总体规划,保证城市的可持续性发展,通过对1985-2015年西安市人口总量的分析,从西安市的生育和死亡状况出发,运用马尔萨斯人口模型和Logistic模型对西安市未来20年的人口进行预测,并进行模型之间的比较,得出西安市未来20年人口的发展状况,以期对西安市统筹人口发展提供借鉴。预测结果表明:马尔萨斯人口模型、Logistic模型均能满足预测精度要求。对于短期的人口预测而言,马尔萨斯人口模型的相对误差较小,可以获得较好的预测效果;对于长期的人口预测而言,Logistic模型则预测效果较好。
For the reasonable overall urban planning and sustainable development of Xi'an,the total population of Xi'an in the coming 20 years is forecast based on the analysis of Xi'an's total population from 1985 to 2015 by using the Malthus population model and the Logistic model.The two models are also compared.This study is expected to provide reference for population development in Xi'an.The results show that both models can give the accuracy required.For the prediction of short-term population,the Malthus population model,with smaller relative errors,can obtain good prediction results,while for long-term population prediction,the Logistic model is the better one.
For the reasonable overall urban planning and sustainable development of Xi'an,the total population of Xi'an in the coming 20 years is forecast based on the analysis of Xi'an's total population from 1985 to 2015 by using the Malthus population model and the Logistic model.The two models are also compared.This study is expected to provide reference for population development in Xi'an.The results show that both models can give the accuracy required.For the prediction of short-term population,the Malthus population model,with smaller relative errors,can obtain good prediction results,while for long-term population prediction,the Logistic model is the better one.
引文
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[3]龙承星,张波.昆明市人口预测模型研究[J].云南民族大学学报,2011,20(4):258.LONG Chengxing,ZHANG Bo.A Study of the Population Forecasting Model for Kunming[J].Journal of Yunnan University of Nationalities,2011,20(4):258.(in Chinese)
[4]邵晓锋,张克新.黄冈市人口增长模型的研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2008,38(13):98.SHAO Xiaofeng,ZHANG Kexin.The Study on Mathematical Models of Population Growth in Huanggang City[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2008,38(13):98.(in Chinese)
[5]杨丽霞,杨桂山,苑韶峰.数学模型在人口预测中的应用---以江苏省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2006,15(3):287.YANG Lixia,YANG Guishan,YUAN Shaofeng.Application of Mathematical Models in Predication of the Population-Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example[J].Resources&Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2006,15(3):287.(in Chinese)
[6]何春.马尔萨斯人口模型在广州市人口预测中的作用[J].广东工业大学学报,2010,27(3):31.HE Chun.The Application of Malthus Population Model in the Prediction of Guangzhou Population[J].Journal of Guangdong University of Technology,2010,27(3):31.(in Chinese)
[7]阎慧臻.Logistic模型在人口预测中的应用[J].大连工业大学学报,2008,27(4):333.YAN Huizhen.Application of Logistic Model in Population Prediction[J].Journal of Dalian Polytechnic University,2008,27(4):333.(in Chinese)
[8]孙双琳,冉风.人口模型在贵州省总人口预测中的应用[J].毕节学院学报,2014,32(8):24.SUN Shuanglin,RAN Feng.The Application of Demographic Models for Population Forecast of Guizhou Province[J].Journal of Bijie University,2014,32(8):24.(in Chinese)
[9]武志勇,霍晓姝,刘家顺.唐山市人口数值预测[J].河北理工大学学报,2010,9(5):19.WU Zhiyong,HUO Xiaoshu,LIU Jiashun.Research on the Forecast of Population Value of Tangshan[J].Journal of Hebei Polytechnic University,2010,9(5):19.(in Chinese)
[10]金鑫,高丽娟,金辉,等.基于马尔萨斯模型对甘肃省人口的预测[J].齐齐哈尔大学学报,2012,28(5):90.JIN Xin,GAO Lijuan,JIN Hui,et al.Prediction of Population Based on Malthusian Model in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Qiqihar University,2012,28(5):90.(in Chinese)
[11]赵沙,张福平.西安市未来人口规模预测及人口发展对策研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(2):7.ZHAO Sha,ZHANG Fuping.Prediction of Future Population Scale and Population Development Strategies in Xi’an[J].Journal of Arid Land Resource and Environment,2012,26(2):7.(in Chinese)