考虑分布式电源出力间歇性的微电网可靠性评估
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摘要
微电网在非计划孤网运行时分布式电源出力的间歇性对供电可靠性影响较大。本文基于风机和光伏等分布式电源输出功率的分布特点,运用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛法获得间歇性分布式电源输出功率多状态概率模型。以微电网内分布式电源输出功率为基础,结合微电网内储能设备的充放电特性和微电网内负荷水平的不确定性,提出一种非计划孤岛情况下的微电网可靠性评估方法,并给出了源荷双侧不确定情况下的微电网可靠性评估流程。最后通过实际微电网运行算例,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。
When microgrid is running in an unplanned isolated network,the intermittent distributed generation(DG)has a larger influence on power supply reliability.Based on the power output distribution characteristics of DG,such as wind turbine and photovoltaic,a multi-states probability model for intermittent DG power output was obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo method.Combined with the charge and discharge characteristics of energy storage equipment and the uncertainty load level in the microgrid,a reliability analysis method for microgrid was proposed.And the reliability evaluation process of microgrid under the condition of uncertainty of DG output and load level is given.Finally,a microgrid operation case is used to verify the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
When microgrid is running in an unplanned isolated network,the intermittent distributed generation(DG)has a larger influence on power supply reliability.Based on the power output distribution characteristics of DG,such as wind turbine and photovoltaic,a multi-states probability model for intermittent DG power output was obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo method.Combined with the charge and discharge characteristics of energy storage equipment and the uncertainty load level in the microgrid,a reliability analysis method for microgrid was proposed.And the reliability evaluation process of microgrid under the condition of uncertainty of DG output and load level is given.Finally,a microgrid operation case is used to verify the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.
引文
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[6]王杨,万凌云,胡博,等(Wang Yang,Wan Lingyun,Hu Bo,et al).基于孤岛运行特性的微电网可靠性分析(Isolated island operating characteristics based analysis on reliability of microgrid)[J].电网技术(Power System Technology),2014,38(9):2379-2385.
[7]王昌照,汪隆君,王钢,等(Wang Changzhao,Wang Longjun,Wang Gang,et al).分布式电源出力与负荷相关性对配电网可靠性的影响分析(Impact of distributed generation output and load correlation on distribution network reliability)[J].电力自动化设备(Electric Power Automation Equipment),2015,35(6):99-105.
[8]解翔,袁越,邹文仲,等(Xie Xiang,Yuan Yue,Zou Wenzhong,et al).非计划孤岛下的微电网供电可靠性评估(Reliability evaluation of microgrid power supply in emergency non-scheduled isolated mode)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2012,36(9):18-23.
[9] Sun Guocheng,Zhao Jingtao,Kong Xiangyu,et al. Reliability analysis method for microgrid with intermittent distributed generations[C]//China International Conference on Electricity Distribution. Xi’an,China,2016.
[10] Billinton R,Dange Huang. Incorporating wind power in generating capacity reliability evaluation using different models[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2011,26(4):2509-2517.
[11] Al-Muhaini M,Heydt G T. Evaluating future power distribution system reliability including distributed generation[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Delivery,2013,28(4):2264-2272.
[12]孔祥玉,吕鑫鹏,董旭柱,等(Kong Xiangyu,LüXinpeng,Dong Xuzhu,et al).基于负荷分类评估的配电网可靠性分析方法(Reliability analysis method of distribution network based on load classification evaluation)[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版)(Journal of Hunan University(Natural Sciences)),2018,45(4):104-111.
[13]罗奕,王钢,汪隆君(Luo Yi,Wang Gang,Wang Longjun).微网可靠性评估指标研究(Reliability evaluation indices for microgrid)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation of Electric Power Systems),2013,37(5):9-14.