基于ARDL模型的吉林省碳排放影响因素实证研究
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摘要
利用吉林省1978—2016年的样本数据,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)对吉林省人均碳排放量、能源消费强度、人均国民收入、工业化水平之间的动态关系进行了计量研究。ARDL模型估计结果表明吉林省人均碳排放量与各个影响因素之间存在长期均衡关系和短期反向调整机制。能源消费强度和人均国民收入对碳排放解释力度最大,其次是工业化水平。最后,在实证研究的基础上提出相应的对策建议。
Based on the sample data from 1978 to 2016 in Jilin Province, the autoregressive distribution lag model(ARDL)was used to measure the dynamic relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption intensity,per capita national income and industrialization in Jilin Province. ARDL model estimation results show that there is a longterm equilibrium relationship between Jilin Province's per capita carbon dioxide emissions and various influencing factors and a short-term reverse adjustment mechanism. The intensity of energy consumption and per capita national income explain CO2 emissions the most, followed by industrialization. Finally, on the basis of empirical research, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
Based on the sample data from 1978 to 2016 in Jilin Province, the autoregressive distribution lag model(ARDL)was used to measure the dynamic relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption intensity,per capita national income and industrialization in Jilin Province. ARDL model estimation results show that there is a longterm equilibrium relationship between Jilin Province's per capita carbon dioxide emissions and various influencing factors and a short-term reverse adjustment mechanism. The intensity of energy consumption and per capita national income explain CO2 emissions the most, followed by industrialization. Finally, on the basis of empirical research, this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
引文
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[21]王永哲,马立平.吉林省能源消费碳排放相关影响因素分析及预测--基于灰色关联分析和GM(1,1)模型[J].生态经济,2016(11):65-70.
[22]Charemza W W,Deadman D F.New Directions in econometric practice:General to specific modelling,cointegration and vector autoregression[M].Cheltenham:Edward Elgar,1992.
[23]Pesaran M H,Shin Y,Smith R J.Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2001,16(3):289-326.
[24]林寿富,孙吉,苏也夫.基于ARDL模型的环境压力影响因素研究--以海峡西岸经济区为例[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017(2):8-15.
[25]赵敏,张卫国,余立中.上海市能源消费碳排放分析[J].环境科学研究,2009(8):984-989.
[2]Dinda S.Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis:A survey[J].Ecological Economics,2004,49(4):431-455.
[3]林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界,2009(4):27-36.
[4]符淼.我国环境库兹涅茨曲线:形态、拐点和影响因素[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(11):40-55.
[5]Mohammadi H,Amin M D.Long-run relation and shortrun dynamics in energy consumption-output relationship:International evidence from country panels with different growth rates[J].Energy Economics,2015(52):118-126.
[6]Lee C C.Energy consumption and GDP in developing countries:A cointegrated panel analysis[J].Energy Economics,2005,27(3):415-427.
[7]隋建利,米秋吉,刘金全.异质性能源消费与经济增长的非线性动态驱动机制[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(11):24-42.
[8]吴巧生,陈亮,张炎涛,等.中国能源消费与GDP关系的再检验--基于省际面板数据的实证分析[J].数量经济与技术经济研究,2008(6):27-40.
[9]赵进文,范继涛.经济增长与能源消费内在依从关系的实证研究[J].经济研究,2007(8):31-42.
[10]Ozturk I,Acaravci A.CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2010,14(9):3220-3225.
[11]Alam M J,Begum I A,Buysse J,et al.Energy consumption carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh:Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis[J].Energy Policy2012(45):217-225.
[12]陶长琪,宋兴达.我国CO2排放、能源消耗、经济增长和外贸依存度之间的关系--基于ARDL模型的实证研究[J].南方经济,2010(10):49-60.
[13]翟石艳,王铮.基于ARDL模型长三角碳排放、能源消费和经济增长关系研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013(1):94-103.
[14]郑义,秦炳涛.能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系研究--基于中国(1970-2010年)ARDL模型的实证分析[J].科研管理,2016(8):130-139.
[15]陆敏,赵湘莲.经济增长、能源消费与二氧化碳排放的关联分析[J].统计与决策,2012(2):109-111.
[16]张慧敏,魏强,佟连军.吉林省产业发展与能源消费实证研究[J].地理学报,2013(12):1678-1688.
[17]钟爽,李国柱,张潞.吉林省能源消费与经济增长关系研究[J]中国人口·资源与环境,2014(11):41-44.
[18]王宪恩,史记,王泳璇,等.吉林省能源消费碳排放变化趋势预测与影响因素分析[J].环境科学与技术,2015(6):247-251.
[19]田雷,汤洁,黄璐思,等.基于LMDI的吉林省重点行业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素分析[J].生态经济,2016(1):40-46.
[20]甄国红,刘海东.吉林省能源消耗与经济增长的关系研究[J]税务与经济,2016(4):105-112.
[21]王永哲,马立平.吉林省能源消费碳排放相关影响因素分析及预测--基于灰色关联分析和GM(1,1)模型[J].生态经济,2016(11):65-70.
[22]Charemza W W,Deadman D F.New Directions in econometric practice:General to specific modelling,cointegration and vector autoregression[M].Cheltenham:Edward Elgar,1992.
[23]Pesaran M H,Shin Y,Smith R J.Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships[J].Journal of Applied Econometrics,2001,16(3):289-326.
[24]林寿富,孙吉,苏也夫.基于ARDL模型的环境压力影响因素研究--以海峡西岸经济区为例[J].西安电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017(2):8-15.
[25]赵敏,张卫国,余立中.上海市能源消费碳排放分析[J].环境科学研究,2009(8):984-989.