Primary investigation of statistical correlation between changes in ice volume and area of glaciers
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摘要
This study makes an attempt to investigate through statistical analysis the correlation between changes in ice volume and area of glaciers. Using data from nine sample glaciers in the Tian Shan, the results show that a linear relation exists between changes in ice volume and area, with a correlation coefficient of 0.700. However, the accuracy estimation is difficult due to the limited number of samples. The correlation was not improved after adding eleven glacier samples in other mountains. Two reference glaciers are then analyzed in more detail. The linear correlation coefficient is higher than 0.800 when using the observed changes in ice volume and area during different periods on Urumqi Glacier No. 1, which suggests that the linear relation is valid for one glacier for different periods if its shape does not change noticeably and also for other glaciers of the same shape during the same period. The relation between changes in ice volume and area of Qingbingtan Glacier No. 72 is different during different periods due to change in the shape of the glacier tongue and the influence of the debris cover. Moreover, errors in glacier-change monitoring and-volume estimation have an important influence on the correlation results. Therefore, further study needs to focus not only on the distinction between glacier types and between different periods but also on the accuracy of volume estimation.
This study makes an attempt to investigate through statistical analysis the correlation between changes in ice volume and area of glaciers. Using data from nine sample glaciers in the Tian Shan, the results show that a linear relation exists between changes in ice volume and area, with a correlation coefficient of 0.700. However, the accuracy estimation is difficult due to the limited number of samples. The correlation was not improved after adding eleven glacier samples in other mountains. Two reference glaciers are then analyzed in more detail. The linear correlation coefficient is higher than 0.800 when using the observed changes in ice volume and area during different periods on Urumqi Glacier No. 1, which suggests that the linear relation is valid for one glacier for different periods if its shape does not change noticeably and also for other glaciers of the same shape during the same period. The relation between changes in ice volume and area of Qingbingtan Glacier No. 72 is different during different periods due to change in the shape of the glacier tongue and the influence of the debris cover. Moreover, errors in glacier-change monitoring and-volume estimation have an important influence on the correlation results. Therefore, further study needs to focus not only on the distinction between glacier types and between different periods but also on the accuracy of volume estimation.
This study makes an attempt to investigate through statistical analysis the correlation between changes in ice volume and area of glaciers. Using data from nine sample glaciers in the Tian Shan, the results show that a linear relation exists between changes in ice volume and area, with a correlation coefficient of 0.700. However, the accuracy estimation is difficult due to the limited number of samples. The correlation was not improved after adding eleven glacier samples in other mountains. Two reference glaciers are then analyzed in more detail. The linear correlation coefficient is higher than 0.800 when using the observed changes in ice volume and area during different periods on Urumqi Glacier No. 1, which suggests that the linear relation is valid for one glacier for different periods if its shape does not change noticeably and also for other glaciers of the same shape during the same period. The relation between changes in ice volume and area of Qingbingtan Glacier No. 72 is different during different periods due to change in the shape of the glacier tongue and the influence of the debris cover. Moreover, errors in glacier-change monitoring and-volume estimation have an important influence on the correlation results. Therefore, further study needs to focus not only on the distinction between glacier types and between different periods but also on the accuracy of volume estimation.
引文
Bahr DB,Meier MF,Peckham SD,1997.The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling.Journal of Geophysical Research,102(B9):20355-20362.DOI:10.1029/97JB01696.
Bahr DB,Dyurgerov M,Meier MF,2009.Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps:a lower bound.Geophysical Research Letters,36(3):L03501.DOI:10.1029/2008GL036309.
Bolch T,Kulkarni A,K??b A,et al.,2012.The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers.Science,336(6079):310-314.DOI:10.1126/science.1215828.
Farinotti D,Huss M,Bauder A,et al.,2009.A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers.Journal of Glaciology,55(191):422-430.DOI:10.3189/002214309788816759.
Farinotti D,Longuevergne L,Moholdt G,et al.,2015.Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years.Nature Geoscience,8(9):716-722.DOI:10.1038/ngeo2513.
Huang MH,Wang MH,Song GP,et al.,1996.Hydraulic effects in the ablation area of the Hailuogou Glacier.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,18(S1):46-50.
IPCC,2013.Climate Change 2013.The physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Li HL,Ng F,Li ZQ,et al.,2012.An extended"perfect-plasticity"method for estimating ice thickness along the flow line of mountain glaciers.Journal of Geophysical Research,117(F1):F01020.DOI:10.1029/2011JF002104.
Li J,Liu SY,Shangguan DH,et al.,2010c.Identification of ice elevation change of the Shuiguan River No.4 glacier in the Qilian Mountains,China.Journal of Mountain Science,7(4):375-379.DOI:10.1007/s11629-010-1124-1.
Li ZQ,Wang FT,Zhu GC,et al.,2007.Basic features of the Miaoergou Flat-Topped Glacier in East Tianshan Mountains and its thickness change over the past 24 years.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,29(1):61-65.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2007.01.010.
Li ZQ,Li KM,Wang L,2010a.Study on recent glacier changes and their impact on water resources in Xinjiang,North western China.Quaternary Sciences,30(1):96-106.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2010.01.09.
Li ZX,He YQ,Pu T,et al.,2010b.Changes of climate,glaciers and runoff in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region during the last several decades.Quaternary International,218(1-2):13-28.DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2009.05.010.
Liu SY,Sun WX,Shen YP,et al.,2003.Glacier changes since the Little Ice Age maximum in the western Qilian Shan,Northwest China,and consequences of glacier runoff for water supply.Journal of Glaciology,49(164):117-124.DOI:10.3189/172756503781830926.
Liu SY,Yao XJ,Guo WQ,et al.,2015.The contemporary glaciers in China based on the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(1):3-16.
Liu YS,Qin X,Zhang T,et al.,2012.Variation of the Ningchan river glacier No.3 in the Lenglongling range,east Qilian Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,34(5):1031-1036.
Luo Y,Li HL,Li ZQ,et al.,2012.The relationship between the mass balances and meteorological factors at the glacier of No.72,Qingbingtan,Shenqi Peak,Tuomuer Area.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,26(3):62-67.
Ma LL,Tian LD,Pu JC,et al.,2010.Recent area and ice volume change of Kangwure Glacier in the middle of Himalayas.Chinese Science Bulletin,55(20):2088-2096.DOI:10.1007/s11434-010-3211-7.
Paterson WSB,1994.The Physics of Glaciers.3rd Ed.Oxford:Butterworth/Heinemann.
Pieczonka T,Bolch T,Wei J F,et al.,2013.Heterogeneous mass loss of glaciers in the Aksu-Tarim Catchment(Central Tien Shan)revealed by 1976 KH-9 hexagon and 2009 SPOT-5stereo imagery.Remote Sensing of Environment,130:233-244.DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2012.11.020.
Pieczonka T,Bolch T,2015.Region-wide glacier mass budgets and area changes for the Central Tien Shan between~1975and 1999 using hexagon KH-9 imagery.Global and Planetary Change,128:1-13.DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.014.
Pratap B,Dobhal DP,Mehta M,et al.,2015.Influence of debris cover and altitude on glacier surface melting:a case study on Dokriani Glacier,central Himalaya,India.Annals of Glaciology,56(70):9-16.DOI:10.3189/2015AoG70A971.
Shangguan DH,Liu SY,Ding YJ,et al.,2010.Changes in the elevation and extent of two glaciers along the Yanglonghe River,Qilian Shan,China.Journal of Glaciology,56(196):309-317.DOI:10.3189/002214310791968566.
Shi YF,2008.Concise Glacier Inventory of China.Shanghai:Shanghai Science Press.
Tian LD,Zong JB,Yao TD,et al.,2014.Direct measurement of glacier thinning on the southern Tibetan Plateau(Gurenhekou,Kangwure and Naimona'Nyi glaciers).Journal of Glaciology,60(223):879-888.DOI:10.3189/2014JoG14J022.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Zhou P,et al.,2015.Recent changes of two selected glaciers in Hami Prefecture of eastern Xinjiang and their impact on water resources.Quaternary International,358:146-152.DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2014.05.028.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2016a.Analyses of recent observations of Urumqi Glacier No.1,Chinese Tianshan Mountains.Environmental Earth Sciences,75(8):720.DOI:10.1007/s12665-016-5551-3.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2016b.Recent evolution in extent,thickness,and velocity of Haxilegen Glacier No.51,Kuytun River Basin,eastern Tianshan Mountains.Arctic,Antarctic,and Alpine Research,48(2):241-252.DOI:10.1657/AAAR0014-079.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Wang WB,et al.,2016c.Comparison of changes in glacier area and thickness on the northern and southern slopes of Mt.Bogda,eastern Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Applied Geophysics,132:164-173.DOI:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2016.07.009.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2017a.Analysis of the relation between glacier volume change and area change in the Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,39(1):9-15.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2017b.Characteristics of a partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt.Tomor,Tien Shan,China.Global and Planetary Change,159:11-24.DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.10.006.
Wu GH,Zhang SY,Wang ZX,1983.Retreat and advance of modern Glaciers in Bogda,Tian Shan.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,5(3):143-152.
Wu LH,Li ZQ,Wang PY,et al.,2011.Sounding the Sigong River Glacier No.4 in Mt.Bogda area,the Tianshan Mountains by using ground penetrating radar and estimating the ice volume.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,33(2):276-282.
Xie CW,Ding YJ,Liu SY,et al.,2006.Variation of Keqikaer Glacier terminus in Tomur Peak during last 30 years.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,28(5):672-677.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2006.05.008.
Yao TD,Shi YF,1988.Variation of climate,glacier,runoff and future trend of Urumqi River.Science in China(Series B),6:657-666.
Yao TD,Thompson L,Yang W,et al.,2012.Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Nature Climate Change,2(9):663-667.DOI:10.1038/nclimate1580.
Zhang Y,Liu SY,Ding YJ,et al.,2006.Preliminary study of mass balance on the Keqicar Baxi Glacier on the south slopes of Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,28(4):477-484.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2006.04.003.
Zhang Y,Fujita K,Liu SY,et al.,2010.Multi-decadal ice-velocity and elevation changes of a monsoonal maritime glacier:Hailuogou glacier,China.Journal of Glaciology,56(195):65-74.DOI:10.3189/002214310791190884.
Zhang YS,Liu SY,Shangguan DH,et al.,2012.Thinning and shrinkage of Laohugou No.12 glacier in the Western Qilian Mountains,China,from 1957 to 2007.Journal of Mountain Science,9(3):343-350.DOI:10.1007/s11629-009-2296-4.
Zhu DY,Tian LD,Wang JL,et al.,2014a.Rapid glacier retreat in the Naimona'Nyi region,western Himalayas,between2003 and 2013.Journal of Applied Remote Sensing,8(1):083508.DOI:10.1117/1.JRS.8.083508.
Zhu DY,2015.Changes of ice thickness for typical glaciers in different areas of Tibetan Plateau.Chongqing:Southwest University.
Zhu ML,Yao TD,Yang W,et al.,2014b.Ice volume and characteristics of sub-glacial topography of the Zhadang Glacier,Nyainqêntanglha Range.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,36(2):268-277.
Bahr DB,Dyurgerov M,Meier MF,2009.Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps:a lower bound.Geophysical Research Letters,36(3):L03501.DOI:10.1029/2008GL036309.
Bolch T,Kulkarni A,K??b A,et al.,2012.The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers.Science,336(6079):310-314.DOI:10.1126/science.1215828.
Farinotti D,Huss M,Bauder A,et al.,2009.A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers.Journal of Glaciology,55(191):422-430.DOI:10.3189/002214309788816759.
Farinotti D,Longuevergne L,Moholdt G,et al.,2015.Substantial glacier mass loss in the Tien Shan over the past 50 years.Nature Geoscience,8(9):716-722.DOI:10.1038/ngeo2513.
Huang MH,Wang MH,Song GP,et al.,1996.Hydraulic effects in the ablation area of the Hailuogou Glacier.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,18(S1):46-50.
IPCC,2013.Climate Change 2013.The physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Li HL,Ng F,Li ZQ,et al.,2012.An extended"perfect-plasticity"method for estimating ice thickness along the flow line of mountain glaciers.Journal of Geophysical Research,117(F1):F01020.DOI:10.1029/2011JF002104.
Li J,Liu SY,Shangguan DH,et al.,2010c.Identification of ice elevation change of the Shuiguan River No.4 glacier in the Qilian Mountains,China.Journal of Mountain Science,7(4):375-379.DOI:10.1007/s11629-010-1124-1.
Li ZQ,Wang FT,Zhu GC,et al.,2007.Basic features of the Miaoergou Flat-Topped Glacier in East Tianshan Mountains and its thickness change over the past 24 years.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,29(1):61-65.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2007.01.010.
Li ZQ,Li KM,Wang L,2010a.Study on recent glacier changes and their impact on water resources in Xinjiang,North western China.Quaternary Sciences,30(1):96-106.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2010.01.09.
Li ZX,He YQ,Pu T,et al.,2010b.Changes of climate,glaciers and runoff in China's monsoonal temperate glacier region during the last several decades.Quaternary International,218(1-2):13-28.DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2009.05.010.
Liu SY,Sun WX,Shen YP,et al.,2003.Glacier changes since the Little Ice Age maximum in the western Qilian Shan,Northwest China,and consequences of glacier runoff for water supply.Journal of Glaciology,49(164):117-124.DOI:10.3189/172756503781830926.
Liu SY,Yao XJ,Guo WQ,et al.,2015.The contemporary glaciers in China based on the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory.Acta Geographica Sinica,70(1):3-16.
Liu YS,Qin X,Zhang T,et al.,2012.Variation of the Ningchan river glacier No.3 in the Lenglongling range,east Qilian Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,34(5):1031-1036.
Luo Y,Li HL,Li ZQ,et al.,2012.The relationship between the mass balances and meteorological factors at the glacier of No.72,Qingbingtan,Shenqi Peak,Tuomuer Area.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,26(3):62-67.
Ma LL,Tian LD,Pu JC,et al.,2010.Recent area and ice volume change of Kangwure Glacier in the middle of Himalayas.Chinese Science Bulletin,55(20):2088-2096.DOI:10.1007/s11434-010-3211-7.
Paterson WSB,1994.The Physics of Glaciers.3rd Ed.Oxford:Butterworth/Heinemann.
Pieczonka T,Bolch T,Wei J F,et al.,2013.Heterogeneous mass loss of glaciers in the Aksu-Tarim Catchment(Central Tien Shan)revealed by 1976 KH-9 hexagon and 2009 SPOT-5stereo imagery.Remote Sensing of Environment,130:233-244.DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2012.11.020.
Pieczonka T,Bolch T,2015.Region-wide glacier mass budgets and area changes for the Central Tien Shan between~1975and 1999 using hexagon KH-9 imagery.Global and Planetary Change,128:1-13.DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.014.
Pratap B,Dobhal DP,Mehta M,et al.,2015.Influence of debris cover and altitude on glacier surface melting:a case study on Dokriani Glacier,central Himalaya,India.Annals of Glaciology,56(70):9-16.DOI:10.3189/2015AoG70A971.
Shangguan DH,Liu SY,Ding YJ,et al.,2010.Changes in the elevation and extent of two glaciers along the Yanglonghe River,Qilian Shan,China.Journal of Glaciology,56(196):309-317.DOI:10.3189/002214310791968566.
Shi YF,2008.Concise Glacier Inventory of China.Shanghai:Shanghai Science Press.
Tian LD,Zong JB,Yao TD,et al.,2014.Direct measurement of glacier thinning on the southern Tibetan Plateau(Gurenhekou,Kangwure and Naimona'Nyi glaciers).Journal of Glaciology,60(223):879-888.DOI:10.3189/2014JoG14J022.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Zhou P,et al.,2015.Recent changes of two selected glaciers in Hami Prefecture of eastern Xinjiang and their impact on water resources.Quaternary International,358:146-152.DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2014.05.028.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2016a.Analyses of recent observations of Urumqi Glacier No.1,Chinese Tianshan Mountains.Environmental Earth Sciences,75(8):720.DOI:10.1007/s12665-016-5551-3.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2016b.Recent evolution in extent,thickness,and velocity of Haxilegen Glacier No.51,Kuytun River Basin,eastern Tianshan Mountains.Arctic,Antarctic,and Alpine Research,48(2):241-252.DOI:10.1657/AAAR0014-079.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Wang WB,et al.,2016c.Comparison of changes in glacier area and thickness on the northern and southern slopes of Mt.Bogda,eastern Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Applied Geophysics,132:164-173.DOI:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2016.07.009.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2017a.Analysis of the relation between glacier volume change and area change in the Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,39(1):9-15.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Li HL,et al.,2017b.Characteristics of a partially debris-covered glacier and its response to atmospheric warming in Mt.Tomor,Tien Shan,China.Global and Planetary Change,159:11-24.DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.10.006.
Wu GH,Zhang SY,Wang ZX,1983.Retreat and advance of modern Glaciers in Bogda,Tian Shan.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,5(3):143-152.
Wu LH,Li ZQ,Wang PY,et al.,2011.Sounding the Sigong River Glacier No.4 in Mt.Bogda area,the Tianshan Mountains by using ground penetrating radar and estimating the ice volume.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,33(2):276-282.
Xie CW,Ding YJ,Liu SY,et al.,2006.Variation of Keqikaer Glacier terminus in Tomur Peak during last 30 years.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,28(5):672-677.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2006.05.008.
Yao TD,Shi YF,1988.Variation of climate,glacier,runoff and future trend of Urumqi River.Science in China(Series B),6:657-666.
Yao TD,Thompson L,Yang W,et al.,2012.Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings.Nature Climate Change,2(9):663-667.DOI:10.1038/nclimate1580.
Zhang Y,Liu SY,Ding YJ,et al.,2006.Preliminary study of mass balance on the Keqicar Baxi Glacier on the south slopes of Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,28(4):477-484.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2006.04.003.
Zhang Y,Fujita K,Liu SY,et al.,2010.Multi-decadal ice-velocity and elevation changes of a monsoonal maritime glacier:Hailuogou glacier,China.Journal of Glaciology,56(195):65-74.DOI:10.3189/002214310791190884.
Zhang YS,Liu SY,Shangguan DH,et al.,2012.Thinning and shrinkage of Laohugou No.12 glacier in the Western Qilian Mountains,China,from 1957 to 2007.Journal of Mountain Science,9(3):343-350.DOI:10.1007/s11629-009-2296-4.
Zhu DY,Tian LD,Wang JL,et al.,2014a.Rapid glacier retreat in the Naimona'Nyi region,western Himalayas,between2003 and 2013.Journal of Applied Remote Sensing,8(1):083508.DOI:10.1117/1.JRS.8.083508.
Zhu DY,2015.Changes of ice thickness for typical glaciers in different areas of Tibetan Plateau.Chongqing:Southwest University.
Zhu ML,Yao TD,Yang W,et al.,2014b.Ice volume and characteristics of sub-glacial topography of the Zhadang Glacier,Nyainqêntanglha Range.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,36(2):268-277.