在用降水逐日监测干旱的方法中引入蒸发
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摘要
降水是旱涝最重要的影响因子。在加权平均降水量WAP方法中,当目前没有降水,且前期降水的影响衰减掉以后,WAP便接近于0了,然而此时土壤可能还是较湿润的;若在随后的日子里仍没有降水,WAP则继续保持接近于0的值,但土壤会变的越来越干。为了区分出在WAP同样都为接近于0的状态下土壤湿度(反映在蒸发上)的差异,本文将WAP指数作了进一步的发展,即在所建立的模型中,将蒸发量E显式地表达出来。也就是,涝(旱)状态的变化不仅受降水量P所强迫,而是受P-E所强迫。新方法的基本原理和模型是与WAP方法相仿的,这个显式地考虑了蒸发的新指数WAPE,其值有正有负,接近于正态分布,因而不需再作正态化处理。结果表明,WAPE指数对旱涝的逐日监测有很好的效果。
Precipitation is the most important influencing factor of drought and flood. The WAP( Weighted Average of Precipitation) uses precipitation to monitor drought at a daily scale. When there is no precipitation for a period of time and the effect of the precipitation has decayed,WAP is close to 0,but at this time,the soil may still be wet. If in the following days,there is still no precipitation,WAP will continue to remain close to 0,but the soil will become dry. In order to distinguish such difference in the soil moisture( reflecting the evaporation) under the same condition that the WAP is close to 0,the WAP method is further developed,with the evaporation being expressed explicitly in the established model. That is,the flood( drought) state of the change is no longer just forced by precipitation P,but forced by P-E. The basic principle and model of the new method is similar to that of the previous method of WAP; the new index WAPE explicitly considered the evaporation,and its value is positive and negative,close to normal distribution,so it is not necessary to be treated as normal. Results show that the WAPE index can provide more details in the daily monitoring of drought and flood.
Precipitation is the most important influencing factor of drought and flood. The WAP( Weighted Average of Precipitation) uses precipitation to monitor drought at a daily scale. When there is no precipitation for a period of time and the effect of the precipitation has decayed,WAP is close to 0,but at this time,the soil may still be wet. If in the following days,there is still no precipitation,WAP will continue to remain close to 0,but the soil will become dry. In order to distinguish such difference in the soil moisture( reflecting the evaporation) under the same condition that the WAP is close to 0,the WAP method is further developed,with the evaporation being expressed explicitly in the established model. That is,the flood( drought) state of the change is no longer just forced by precipitation P,but forced by P-E. The basic principle and model of the new method is similar to that of the previous method of WAP; the new index WAPE explicitly considered the evaporation,and its value is positive and negative,close to normal distribution,so it is not necessary to be treated as normal. Results show that the WAPE index can provide more details in the daily monitoring of drought and flood.
引文
[1]刘艳丽,王国庆,顾颖,等.基于改进的标准化降水指数的黄河中游干旱情势研究.干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(10):75-80.LIU Yanli,WANG Guoqing,GU Ying,et al.Drought trend estimation based on improved standard precipitation index for the middle reaches of Yellow River.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment(in Chinese),2013,27(10):75-80.
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[13]白永清,智协飞,祁海霞,等.基于多尺度SPI的中国南方大旱监测.气象科学,2010,30(3):292-300.BAI Yongqing,ZHI Xiefei,QI Haixia,et al.Severe drought monitoring in South China based on the standardized precipitation index at different scales.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2010,30(3):292-300.
[14]何俊琦,余锦华,高歌,等.西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究.气象科学,2015,35(4):454-461.HE Junqi,YU Jinhua,GAO Ge,et al.Research on the adaptability of meteorological arid index of agricultural drought in Southwest China.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(4):454-461.
[15]LU Er.Determining the start,duration,and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:Rationale.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36(12):L12707.
[16]LU Er,CAI Wenyue,JIANG Zhihong,et al.The day-to-day monitoring of the 2011 severe drought in China.Climate Dyn.,2014,43(1-2):1-9.
[17]闫妍,李忠贤.基于SPEI指数分析华中地区近40 a干旱时空分布特征.气象科学,2015,35(5):646-652.YAN Yan,LI Zhongxian.Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought for recent 40 years in central China based on the SPEI index.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(5):646-652.
[18]曾燕,邱新法,徐萌,等.2004年秋季江苏省干旱遥感监测研究.气象科学,2007,27(3):302-306.ZENG Yan,QIU Xinfa,XU Meng,et al.On monitoring of drought in Jiangsu province of 2004 autumn using remote sensing data.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2007,27(3):302-306.
[19]王羱,桑悦洋,张立凤.2013年夏季浙江省高温干旱环流异常分析.气象科学,2015,35(2):140-149.WANG Yuan,SANG Yueyang,ZHANG Lifeng.Circulation anomaly of summer high temperature and drought in Zhejiang of 2013.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(2):140-149.
[20]王伟,薛丰昌,史达伟,等。基于CART算法的夏季干旱预测模型研究及应用.气象科学,2016,36(5):661-666.WANG Wei,XUE Fengchang,SHI Dawei,et al.Research on summer drought prediction model based on CART algorithm.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2016,36(5):661-666.
[21]李曈,王文,蔡晓军.2013年长江中下游夏季高温干旱演变过程及环流异常成因简析.气象科学,2017,37(4):505-513.LI Tong,WANG Wen,CAI Xiaojun.Evolution and abnormal causes for high temperature and drought in the middle and lower researches of Yangtze River in summer of 2013.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2017,37(4):505-513.
[2]李伟光,侯美亭,陈汇林,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的华南干旱趋势研究.自然灾害学报,2012,21(4):84-90.LI Weiguang,HOU Meiting,CHEN Huilin,et al.Study on drought trend in South China based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.Journal of Natural Disasters(in Chinese),2012,21(4):84-90.
[3]Plmer W C.Meteorological drought.Washington D C:US Department of Commerce,Weather Bureau,1965:1-58.
[4]Mc Kee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Anaheim,CA:Cambridge University Press,1993.
[5]张存杰,王宝灵,刘德祥,等.西北地区旱涝指标的研究.高原气象,1998,17(4):381-389.ZHANG Cunjie,WANG Baoling,LIU Dexiang,et al.Research on drought and flood indices in the Northwest China.Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),1998,17(4):381-389.
[6]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.GB/T 20481-2006气象干旱等级.北京:中国标准出版社,2006:11.General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China,Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China.GB/T 20481-2006Classification of meteorological drought.Beijing:China Standard Press(in Chinese),2006:11.
[7]Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,Lòpez-Moreno J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.J.Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[8]Vicente-Serrano S M,Beguería S,Lòpez-Moreno J I,et al.A new global 0.5°gridded dataset(1901—2006)of a multiscalar drought index:comparison with current drought index datasets based on the palmer drought severity index.J.Hydrometeor.,2010,11(4):1033-1043.
[9]王劲松,冯建英.甘肃省河西地区径流量干旱指数初探.气象,2000,26(6):3-7.WANG Jinsong,FENG Jianying.Prelimilary research on runoff drought index in Hexi area of Gansu Province.Meteorology Monthly(in Chinese),2000,26(6):3-7.
[10]Shafer B A,Dezman L E.Development of a surface water supply index(SWSI)to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas//Proceedings of the 50th Annual Western Snow Conference.Fort Collins,Colorado:Colorado State University,1982:164-175.
[11]Palmer W C.Keeping track of crop moisture conditions,nationwide:The new crop moisture index.Weatherwise,1968,21(4):156-161.
[12]赵旭春,王澄海,张永生,等.两种干旱指标在乌海地区干旱分析中的应用比较研究.气象科学,2007,27(S1):162-168.ZHAO Xuchun,WANG Chenghai,ZHANG Yongsheng,et al.Application,comparison and research of two kinds of grade indices of drought analysis in Wuhai Area.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2007,27(S1):162-168.
[13]白永清,智协飞,祁海霞,等.基于多尺度SPI的中国南方大旱监测.气象科学,2010,30(3):292-300.BAI Yongqing,ZHI Xiefei,QI Haixia,et al.Severe drought monitoring in South China based on the standardized precipitation index at different scales.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2010,30(3):292-300.
[14]何俊琦,余锦华,高歌,等.西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究.气象科学,2015,35(4):454-461.HE Junqi,YU Jinhua,GAO Ge,et al.Research on the adaptability of meteorological arid index of agricultural drought in Southwest China.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(4):454-461.
[15]LU Er.Determining the start,duration,and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:Rationale.Geophys.Res.Lett.,2009,36(12):L12707.
[16]LU Er,CAI Wenyue,JIANG Zhihong,et al.The day-to-day monitoring of the 2011 severe drought in China.Climate Dyn.,2014,43(1-2):1-9.
[17]闫妍,李忠贤.基于SPEI指数分析华中地区近40 a干旱时空分布特征.气象科学,2015,35(5):646-652.YAN Yan,LI Zhongxian.Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought for recent 40 years in central China based on the SPEI index.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(5):646-652.
[18]曾燕,邱新法,徐萌,等.2004年秋季江苏省干旱遥感监测研究.气象科学,2007,27(3):302-306.ZENG Yan,QIU Xinfa,XU Meng,et al.On monitoring of drought in Jiangsu province of 2004 autumn using remote sensing data.Scientia Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),2007,27(3):302-306.
[19]王羱,桑悦洋,张立凤.2013年夏季浙江省高温干旱环流异常分析.气象科学,2015,35(2):140-149.WANG Yuan,SANG Yueyang,ZHANG Lifeng.Circulation anomaly of summer high temperature and drought in Zhejiang of 2013.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2015,35(2):140-149.
[20]王伟,薛丰昌,史达伟,等。基于CART算法的夏季干旱预测模型研究及应用.气象科学,2016,36(5):661-666.WANG Wei,XUE Fengchang,SHI Dawei,et al.Research on summer drought prediction model based on CART algorithm.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2016,36(5):661-666.
[21]李曈,王文,蔡晓军.2013年长江中下游夏季高温干旱演变过程及环流异常成因简析.气象科学,2017,37(4):505-513.LI Tong,WANG Wen,CAI Xiaojun.Evolution and abnormal causes for high temperature and drought in the middle and lower researches of Yangtze River in summer of 2013.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2017,37(4):505-513.