摘要
为研究中国电网停电事故的复杂动态特性,分析了中国电网停电事故时间间隔的分布特性.首先,对中国电网1981~2014年的停电事故的时间间隔进行了统计分析和正态性检验,指出了中国电网停电事故的时间间隔近似满足幂律分布.其次,利用重标方差(rescaled variance, V/S)方法对中国电网停电事故的时间间隔序列进行了相关性分析,指出了中国电网停电事故的时间间隔序列具有长程正相关性和统计自相似性.最后,给出了电网停电事故时间间隔分布特性的意义.
To study the complex dynamic characteristics of blackouts in Chinese power grid, the distribution characteristics of time intervals of blackouts in Chinese power grid are researched. Firstly, the time intervals of blackouts in Chinese power grid from 1981–2014 are analyzed by statistical analysis and normality test. It is proved that the time intervals of blackouts in Chinese power grid approximately satisfies the power-law distribution. Secondly, utilizing the V/S method, the correlation of time intervals of blackouts in Chinese power grid is researched. It is proved that the time intervals of blackouts in Chinese power grid have the strong positive correlation and self-similarity on long time scale. Finally, the significance of distribution characteristics of time intervals of blackouts in Chinese power grid is given.
引文
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