摘要
苹果黑星病是世界各苹果产区的重要病害，主要为害苹果叶片和果实，造成叶片早期脱落，降低树势；在果实表面形成疮痂状病斑，使果实畸形，降低其商品价值。该病虽属国内检疫性病害，但发病面积逐年扩大，严重威胁我国苹果生产。
将苹果黑星病春季流行过程分解为苹果叶片生长、子囊孢子成熟、子囊孢子释放着落、子囊孢子萌发、子囊孢子侵染、病斑扩展6个过程。利用系统分析和模拟的方法描述苹果黑星病春季流行过程中各主要组分与环境条件主要是积温的关系，并分别建立子模型。
采用1997－2003年，4月10日至7月10日日积温，建立逐日累累积温预测子模型，为其它模型提供积温数据。苹果叶片生长子模型、子囊孢子成熟子模型利用4月10为起点的积温预测逐日叶片面积、逐日平均叶龄、子囊孢子逐日成熟度。子囊孢子释放着落子模型采用黑盒处理，推测叶片上着落的子囊孢子数量。子囊孢子萌发子模型采用降雨日的逐时积温、降雨、日平均温度及叶面湿润时间预测子囊孢子产生附着胞的概率。子囊孢子有效侵染率子模型中以叶片平均叶龄为驱动变量，计算着落于叶片上的子囊孢子有效侵染率。病斑扩展子模型以积温为驱动变量，预测逐日病斑面积增长量、病斑数量增加量。
按总体设计框图，以Windows XP为支持系统，采用可视化结构程序设计语言Delphi 7.0编写程序将各子模型有机的连接起来，组建成苹果黑星病春季流行模拟模型模型中以4月10日为起点的积温、4月10日后大于0.25mm降雨量为驱动变量，预测经一个潜育期后苹果黑星病的发病率，并确定最佳防治时期。初始菌原量，潜育期作为常量计入模型。
通过对模型的灵敏度检测，结果发现降雨日期对苹果黑星病严重度的影响最敏感，但对单个苹果枝条上黑星病斑数目的影响相对迟钝。通过改变降雨日期和初侵染源数量模拟试验发现4月30日至5月20日之间的降雨引起的苹果黑星病发病率较高；初侵染菌量越多造成的发病率也越高。通过对苹果黑星病单个枝条上的病斑数目调查结果与SMEASS模型模拟结果进行测验卡平方，结果表明卡平方值为0.2309，对应的概率值为0.9725，说明SMEASS模型模拟的结果与田间实际调查结果一致。
SMEASS模型结构基本合理，预测结果较理想，基本反映出陕西省苹果黑星病的春季流行规律，为苹果黑星病综合防治提供理论基础。
Apple scab (Venturia inaequalis) is a serious disease of apples in temperate regions throughout the world, because the causal fungus can infect the leaves and fruits. Infected leaves may drop early resulting in weaken trees, Infected fruits may be blemished and deformed. Though apple scab is the internal quarantine disease, the disease was expanding to large areas and threatening to apple sustainable production in China.
The epidemic process of apple scab in spring was divided into the six following parts: vegetative growth of apple leaves，maturity of ascospores, ascospores discharge and landing on apple leaves; germination of ascospores; infection of ascospores and expanding of lesions. The relation between environmental factors and the primary components of the epidemic process of apple scab in spring was described and sub-models were developed.
Dates of Accumulative temperature (degree day) from 10th April to 10th July in 1997-2003 were used for developing degree-day accumulative model that provided other sub-models with data of degree-day accumulation. Areas and ages of leaves and probit of mature ascospores were calculated by Sub-model for vegetative growth of apple leaves and ascospores maturity. Numbers of ascospores landed on leaves were predicted by sub-model for discharge and landing of ascospores which were presumedly taken them as a ‘Black-box’. The probit of ascospores producing appresora was predicted by sub-model of ascospores germination with accumulative temperature (degree hour)、average temperature and duration of wetness. The efficiency of ascospores infection to leaves was calculated by sub-model for average ages of leaves. The daily increased area and the number of lesions were predicted by lesion expanding sub-model based on driving variant of accumulative temperature.
According to the frame of collectivity design, SMEASS model was composed of sub-models that were coupled with visual structure programming language-Delphi 7.0 in operating system-windows XP. In order to confirm the best
prevent and control period, the model was used to forecast incidence of apple scab throughout one incubation period with the aid of over 0.25 mm rainfall after 10th April and start point of accumulative temperature on 10th April. Incubation period and number of primary inoculum were a constant put into the model.
Through the sensitivity determination of the model, it found that date of rainfall had the most sensitivity to influence on apple scab severity, but it had the less influence on numbers of apple scab lesions on the individual apple branch. According to the result of simulated test by changing rainfall and numbers of primary inoculum, it found that the incidence of apple scab which primary inoculum caused was relatively high in duration of the first rainfall from 30th April to 20th May. Compared the result from investigation of numbers of lesions on the single branch with the result of SMEASS model by Chi-square test, it indicated that the value of X2 was 0.2309, the corresponding probability value was 0.9725. The value of X2 showed that simulative result was consistent with one of field investigation.
The structure of model that reflected the epidemic of apple scab in spring in Shanxi Province was basically reasonable and result of forecasting was desirable, and supplied a solid foundation of theory for integrated apple scab management.
引文
陈飞跃. 水稻纹枯病流行电算模拟模型. 1988,北京农业大学植保所硕士论文
丁克坚. SIMRLB-----稻叶瘟病流行的模拟模型. 1985, 硕士毕业论文
洪传学. 保护地黄瓜霜霉病电算模拟模型. 1987. 北京农业大学植保所硕士论文
胡小平,王长发 编著. SAS基础及统计实例教程 . 西安地图出版社
孔平. 水稻叶瘟病流行系统分析. 1987 .河南省农科院植保所硕士论文
李保华. 梨叶叶片日龄与梨黑星菌侵染发病的关系. 植物保护学报. 2001 .4：309-312
李宏. 小麦白粉病田间流行模拟模型. 1985 .西南农业大学植保系硕士论文
鲁宗相 编著 Delphi5入门与提高 清华大学出版社
马凯 主编 曹培生 王然 副主编 园艺通论 . 高等教育出版社 26-29
米国华 李文雄. 小麦幼穗分化的湿光反应研究 东北农业大学学报 1996．27(2)：124一131．
束怀瑞 等编著 苹果学 中国农业出版社 233--235
王昌明 稻瘟病流行模拟模型SIMBLAST-1 1983 江西农学院植保所研究报告
王振中 花生锈病流行模拟模型 1984 华南农学院植保系硕士论文
王振中 小白菜花叶病流行规律及其蚜虫介体种群动态的研究 华南农业 大学植保系博士论文
吴远藩 量叶片长和宽计算番茄叶面积 1980 农业科技通讯 12:20-21
项月琴、王锦地、李小文等 二向反射遥感中冬小麦植被组分和土壤特性的季相变化 遥感学报 2000 4（增刊）：90－100 46
肖悦言 SIMYR------小麦流行简要模拟模型 植物病理学报 1983 .13(1): 43-45
肖悦言 介绍一种计算有效积温的方法 1983. 植物保护 2：43-45
肖悦言、季伯衡、杨之为等 植物病害流行与预测 中国农业大学出版社 1
杨信东 玉米大斑病流行模拟模型的建立 吉林农业大学学报 1988.10：6-10
袁甫金，吕文清，王淑娟. 黑龙江省小苹果黑星病的初侵染来源. 植物病理学报，1965，8（1）：23-29
曾士迈、庞雄飞 系统科学在植物保护研究中的应用 农业出版社2
曾士迈等 小麦条锈病的电算模拟研究初步 北京农大学报 ，1981 7（3）：1－12
中国果树栽培学 中国农业科学院主编 农业出版社 352-353
中国农业百科全书 农业气象卷
A.L.O Leary and T.B Sutton The influence of temperature and moisture on the quantitative production of pseudothecia of Venturia inquealis Ecology and Epidemiology 1986 76:199-204
Adams, J. F. The spore discharge of the apple scab fungus in Delaware.Del.Agric.Exp.Stn.Bull. 1925.140.16pp
Aderhold，R.Die Fusicladien unserer Obstaume I.Teil Landw.Jahrb 1896 25:875-914
Aylor D E A framework for examining inter-regional aerial transport of fungal spores Agric For Meteorol 1986, 38:263-288
Aylor D E and Sutton T B Release of ventuia inaequalis ascospores duing unsteady rain: relation to spore transport and deposition Phytopathology.1922.82:532-540
Becker C. M., Burr T. J. and Smith C. A. .Overwintering of conidia of Venturia inaequalis in apple buds in New York orchards. Plant Disease, 1992, 76(2):121-126
Becker C.M Overwintering of the anamorph of Venturia inaequalis (spilocaea pomi) in apple buds and the viability of conidia as affected by discontinuous wetting Ph.D dissertation . Cornell University ,Ithica ,NY ,1990 86pages
Becker C.M and Burr,T.J Association of Venturia inaequalis conidia with apple buds(Abrs) Phytopathology ,1990 ,80:117
Becker C.M and Burr,T.J The fate of overwintering Venturia inaequalis (Cke) Wint .conidia on apple leaves and fruits in New York (Abrs) Phytopathology 1988 78:1573
Becker C.M and Burr,T.J Apple scab lesions,caused by Venturia inaequalis ,on shoots in New York ; history and enumeration of inoculum.(Abrs) Phytopathology .1990. 80:117
Brook P J The ascospore production season of venturia inaequalis (Cke)Wint ,the apple black spot fungus N Z J Agric Res. 1966.12:214-227
Brook P J Effects of light ,temperature and moisture on release of ascospre by venturia inaequalis(Cke)Wint N Z J Agric Res. 1969.12:214-227
Brook P J Stimulation of ascospore release in Venturia inaequalis by far red light Nature(London). 1969.222:390-392
Brook,P.J..Effects of light ,temperature and moisture on release of ascospores by Venturia inqualeas (Cke)Wint. N.Z.J. Agric Res .1968.12:214-227
Butt D J,Xu X-M, Santen van G,stone K B,VentemTM---an Apple Scab(Venturia inaequalis)Infection Warning System.Version 4.0 Computer software and manual East Malling ,UK:Horticulture Research International. 1994.
Chamberlain , A C .Transport of Lycopodium spores and other small particles to rough surfaces Proc R.Soc Agric. 1967. 296:45-70
Chamberlain A C Aspects of travel and deposition of aerosol and vapor clouds Rep AERE-R 1261 At Energy Res Establ, Harwell, England 1953
Clayton C N The germination of fungous spores in relation to controlled humidity Phytopathology. 1942.32:921-943
Cook R. T. A. .Studies on the overwintering of Venturia inaequalis (Cke.) Wint. . Ph. D. dissertation, University of London, 1969, 205pp
Cook，R.T.A. Pustules on wood as sources of inoculum in apple scab and their response to chemical treatments Ann.Appl Biol 1974 77:1-9
Cooke M C Spilocaea pomi Fr Grevillea 1873. 2:64
Cunningham,G H A note recording the presence in NewZealand of the perithecial stages of apple and pear black-spot N Z J Sci Technol. 1921. 23:219-221
Curtis K.M. Ascospore ejection of the apple and pear black-spot fungi N Z J Sci Technol. 1922 5:83-90
David M.Gadoury and William E.MacHardy A model to estimate the maturity of ascospores of venturia inaequlis Phytopathology. 1982.7:901-904
Donald E Aylor and Sandra L Anagnostakis Active discharge distance of ascospores of venturia inaequalis Phytopathology .1991.81:548-551
Donald E.Aylor Vertical variation of aerical concentration of venturia inaequlis in an apple orchard Phytopathology.1995. 2: 175-181
Frey,C.N., and Keitt,G.W. Studies of spore dissemination of Venturia
inaequalis (Cke)Wint in relation to seasonal development of apple scab. J.Agric.Res.1925.30:529-540
Ferrandino, F J and Aylor ,D E An explict equation for deposition velocity Boundary-Layer Meteoro .1985l .31:197-201
Gadoury D M and MacHardy W E Preparation and interpretation of squash mounts of pseudothecia of venturia inaequalis Phytopathology .1982. 72:92-95
Gadoury D. M. and MacHardy W. E. .Effects of temperature on the development of pseudothecia of Venturia inaequalis. Plant Dis. 1982. 66:464-468
Gadoury D. M. and MacHardy W. E. .Negative geotropism in Venturia inaequalis. Phytopathology, 1985, 75(7):856-859
Gadoury D. M. and MacHardy W. E. Forecasting ascospore dose of venturia inaequalis in commercial applw orchards Phytopathology. 1986 .76:112-118
Gilpatrick J. D., Smith C. A. and Blowers D. R. A method of collecting ascospores of Venturia inaequalis for spore germination studies. Plant Dis. Rep.. 1972. 56:39-42
Gloyer W. O. .Evaluation of lime-sulfur for the control of apple scab. Phytopathology, 1937, 27:129
Goossens,J. Onderzoek naar de eerste infectiebron van appel- en perenschurft.T Plantenziekten 1934 40:174-176
Gregory,P,H. The Microbiology of the Atmosphere John Wiley & Sons,Inc,New,York, 1973 .377pp
Hill,S.A The importance of wood scab caused by Venturia inaequalis (Cke)Wint as a source of infection for apple leaves in the spring.Phytopathol.Z 1975 82:216-223
Hirst J. M. and Stedman O. J. .The epidemiology of apple scab Venturia inaequalis (Cke.) Wint. I. Frequency of airborne spores in orchards. Ann. Appl. Biol., 1961. 49:290-305
Holb1, B. Heijne2 and M. J. Jeger3 .Summer Epidemics of Apple Scab: The Relationship between Measurements and their Implications for the Development of Predictive Models and Threshold Levels under Different Disease Control Regimes（Abrs）.Journal of Phytopathology 2003.6：335
Holz Holz,W. EnfluB des lichtes auf die Perithezienbildung von Venturia inaequalis Aderhold.Zentralbl.Bakt .1937. 95:469-471
James J.R and Sutton T B A model for prediction ascospore maturation of venturia inaequlis Phytopathology .1982.1081-1085
James.J.R.. and Sutton T.B Envirormental factors influencing pseudothecial development and ascospore maturation of Venturia inquaelis Phytopatholgy .1982.73:1073-1080
Jehle R. A. and Hunter H. A. .Observations on the discharge of ascospores of Venturia inaequalis in Maryland. Phytopathology, 1928. 18:943-945
Jeger,M.J. Overwintering of Venturia inaequalis in relation to lesion intensity on leaf surfaces and leaf surface exposed. Trans.Br.Mycol.Soc.1984.83:495-500
Jones，A L,and Aldwinckle ,H S Compendium of Apple and Pear disease The American Phytopathological Society St Paul.1990 .
Keitt , G W Studies of apple scab and cherry leaf spot infection under conrolled conditions (Abstr) Phytopathology .1927.17:45
Keitt, G. W. and Jones L. K. .Studies of the epidemiology and control of apple scab. Univ. Wisc. Agric. Exp. Stn. Res. Bull..1926. 73:104
Kennel,W ZumAuftreten Schorfkonidien auf ausserlich unversehrter Rinde Von Apfelzweigen.43.Deutsche Pflanzenschutz-Tagung,Hamburg,5-9 Oct 1981 Proc 203.Page 117
Lawrence, W H The apple scab in Western Washington . Washington Agric Exp.Stn.Bull .1904. 64:23
Lillevik,S L ,Fisher P D and Jones A L Apredictive CMOA-based instrument for agriculture Pages 275-286 in :Microcomputer Design and Applications S C Lee ed Academic Press New York. 1977.368 pp
Louw , A J The incidence and economic importance of apple scab(Venturia inaequalis (Cke)Wint)in the winter-rainfall area of the Cape Province S.Afr Dep Agric For Sci Bull .1947.274:13pp
Louw A. J. .Studies of the influence of environmental factors on the overwintering and epiphytology of apple scab (Venturia inaequalis [Cke.] Wint.) in the winter-rainfall area of the cape Province. S. Africa Dept. Agric. Sci. Bull.,1951, 310. 48pp. Dept. of S. Africa Sci. Bull. 310
Louw, A.J The germination and longevity of spores of the apple-scab fungus ,Venturia inaequalis (Cke)Wint Union S Afric.Sci Bull .1948. 285:19pp
MacHardy W E ,Gadoury D W A revision of Mills’scriteria for predicting apple scab infection periods Phytopathology .1989.79:304-310
MacHardy W M and David M G Patterns of ascospore discharge by venturia inaequalis Phytopathology .1986.76:958-900
MacHardy W. E. and Gadoury D. M. .Forecasting the seasonal maturation of ascospore of Venturia inaequalis. Phytopathology, 1985, 75(4):381-385
MacHardy W.E and Gadoury D M Patterns of ascospore discharge by venturia ineaqulis during rain-initiated wet periods (Abstr) Phytopathology .1984.74:840
Marsh,R.W. and Walker,M.M The scab fungus (Venturia inaequalis) on apple shoots J.Pomol..1932 .10:71-90
Massie,L,B, and Szkolnik, M Prediction of ascospore maturation of venturia inaequlis using cumulative degree days.(Abstr.) Proc.Am Phytopathol .Soc.1974. 1:140
McAlpine D. .The apple scab fungus causing black spot of apple and pear. Victoria Agric. Dep. J., 1902, 1:703-708
McCartner ,H A and Aylor ,D E Relative contrib.utions of sedimentation and impaction to deposition of particles in a crop canopy Agric For .Meteorol .1987.40:343-358
Mills W D Efficient sse of sulfur dusts and sprays during to control apple scab Cornell Ext Bull .1944. 630 4pp
Moore,M H Glasshouse experiments in apple scab I Foliage infection in felation to wet and dry periods Ann Appl Biol .1964.53:423-435
Moosherr,W Untersuchungen zusuperfiziellem Schorf und knospenschorf (venturia inaequalis[Cke]Wint.) beim Apfel Ph.D dissertation. Universitat Hohenheim1990.84 pages
Morse,W.J and Darrow,W.H.Is Apple scab of young shoots a source of spring infection ? Phytopathology 1913 3:265-269
Nowacka , H and Cimanowski ,J Evaluation of the method determineing critical periods in scab infection for its control Fruit Sci
Rep .1985.12:35-39
OLeary A. L. and Sutton T. B. .The influence of temperature and moisture on the quantitative production of pseudothecia of Venturia inaequalis. Phytopathology, 1986. 76:199-204
Olivier,J M ,Lambert ,C, and Lefeuvre ,M Application du thermohumectographe KIT-INRA .Etude des risques de taveluer du pommier a lechelle du Maine-et Loire(France) Bull OEPP .1983. 13:47-56
Preece T T and Smith L P Apple scab infection weather in England and Wales,1956-1960 Plant Pathol .1961.10:43-51
Ross R. G. and Hamlin S. A. .Production of perithecia of Venturia inaequalis (Cke.) Wint. on sterile apple leaf discs. Can. J. Bot., 1962, 40:629-935
Ross,R. G, and Newbery,R J Effects of seasonal fungicide sprays on perithecium formation and ascospore production in venturia inaequalis .Can.J .Plant Sci 1975 55:737-742
Salmon,E S and Ware,W M A new fact in the life-history of the apple scab fungus Gardeners Chronicle 1931 89:437-438
Schneiderhan,F.J.and Fromme,F.D. Apple scab and its control in Virginia.Va.Agric.Exp.Stn.Bull.1924. 236 29pp
Schwabe ,W F S Wetting and temperature requirements for apple leaf infection by Venturia inaequalis in south Africa Phytophylactica .1980.12:69-80
Schwabe W F S Changes in the susceptibility of apple leaves as influenced by age Phytophylactica .1979.11:53-56
Schwabe W F S Jones A L and Jonker J P Changes in the susceptibility of developing apple fruit to venturia inaequalis Phytopathology .1984.74:118-121
Seem,R C Gilpatrick,J D and Szkolnik M Quantitative effects of microclimate on spore development and dispersal systems of apple scab Proc of Symposia IX Int Cong Plant prot :. 1979.135-137
SPRAYCHECK――a model for evaluating grower timing of black spot fungicides in apple orchards Crop Protecting.1978. 17(1):65-74］
Stensvand A Gadoury D M Amundsen T Semb L and Seem R C 1997 Ascospore release and infection of apple leaves by conidia and ascospores of
venturia inaequalis at low temperatures Phytopathology 87:1046-1053
Sys S and Soenen ,A Investigations on the infection criteria of scab (venturia inaequalis Cook Wint)on apples with respect to the table of Mills and Laplante Agricultura (Heverlee , Belg.).1970. 18:3-8
Szkolnik M. .Maturation and discharge of ascospores of Venturia inaequalis. Plant Dis. Rep., 1969, 53:534-537
T．M．Stewartl，YANG Ling—huan z .Policy and Research Recommendations on Pest and Disease Management of apple scab in the Northern Wei region of Shaanxi Province，China 干早地区农业研究 .2000 .2:47-57
Teng ,P S . Simulation of the barley leaf rust epidemic :structure and validation of BARSIM-I. Agric Systems. 19805.:85-103
Turner M L and MacHardy W E Germination and appressorium formation by venturia inaequalis during infection of apple seedling leaves Plant disease .1986. 70:658-661
Vanderplank,J.E. Plant disease :epidemics and control .Acad.Press,New.York.
Voges ,E Uber die Schorfkrankhert der Obstabaume. Deut Landw.Presse 1907 34:276-285
Voges,E Die Bekampfung des Fusicladium.Zeitsch.f Pflanzenkrankh.1910 20:385-393
Waggoner P E and Horsfall J G EPIDEM: a simulator of plant disease written for computer .Conn Agric Exp Str Bull. 1969 .698:1-80
Wallace E. Scab disease of apples .N.Y.Agric Exp.Stn.Bull. .1913. 335:83
Wilson E E Studies of the ascigerous stage of venturia inaequalis (Cke.)Wint in relation to certain factors of the environment. Phytopathology .1928. 18:375-417
X M xu and D J Butt A dynamic model simulating infection of apple leaves by venturia inaequlis. Plant pathology. 1995,44:865-876
Xu X M Apple scab control with the simulation programme “RIMpro” at Lake Constance ,Germany: results and experiences in the past three years In Proceedings of the 4th workshop on Integrated control of pome fruit diseases .Croydon UK, August.1996,19-23
Xu X-M Butt D J PC-based disease warning systems for use by apple growers EPPO Bulletion .1993，23:595-600