摘要
第一章主要阐述了本文的研究理论框架,以进一步说明本文的研究目标。为了理解南亚的均势动态,本文试图采用“现实主义”理论证实：尽管全球化和其他与其竞争的自由主义理论已经出现,但国际政治的性质没有发生根本性的变化。而且世界政治的无政府结构产生了一种自救体系,在该体系中国家会制定相关政策以抵制潜在的威胁。因为一个国家如果没有足够的实力会更容易变成其他强国的仆从国。与其他理论相比,均势理论在无政府结构中更有效,而且均势理论真实地演绎了南亚的战略形势。要知道只有强国才能对强国进行有效的制衡。事实上均势理论在很早以前就已经存在,最典型的例子可以追溯到冷战。冷战期间美苏两国曾一度走到了核灾难的边缘,但由于害怕彼此确保能摧毁对方的能力,最终这种局势逐步降级。而均势也恰恰保证了南亚的和平与稳定,但南亚的均势一旦被打破,很可能会将印度和巴基斯坦推向战争的边缘,并且肯定会将临近的有核国家也卷入其中。
第二章叙述了自南亚次大陆独立以来,由于双方实力的不对称,印度和巴基斯坦之间曾几度爆发战争和冲突。为了实现实力的平衡,巴基斯坦曾加入过由美国发起建立的安全条约组织,如东南亚条约组织和中央条约组织。而印度没有加入任何一个集团,却得到了美苏两个超级大国的大量的军事和经济援助。1962年的中印边界冲突也使印度成为美国遏制中国并制止中国在南亚影响力上升的重要资产。印度对巴基斯坦和中国的“两边对抗”政策,使其成为两国共同的威胁。1974年,在美国和苏联的技术及物质的援助下,印度进行了核试验,这使局势明显导向有利于印度的一面,而且印度通过克什米尔问题继续威吓巴基斯坦。1998年印度再次进行核试验又一次对巴基斯坦造成了威胁。在印度核试验的15天中,巴基斯坦也报复式地进行了5天的核试验,宣告了巴基斯坦核模糊态度的结束。为实现与印度的平衡,巴基斯坦争取到了中国的支持,并且通过此种方式巴基斯坦努力地完成了与印度的战略均势。
第三章论述了由于南亚次大陆使用核武器,南亚的安全范式发生了转变。巴基斯坦的核武器抗衡了印度在南亚的核垄断,而华盛顿持悲观态度的反炸弹游说团体却很担心核战争的爆发。然而,均势在南亚发挥了很好的作用,印度和巴基斯坦两个国家开启了和平的进程,结束半个世纪以来包括克什米尔纷争在内的敌对状态。中国赞赏巴基斯坦这种和平的努力,支持其与印度缓和。此外,印度和巴基斯坦双方都采用了全方位的外交手段增强双方军事以及非军事的信心构建机制。但是,国内和国外的反和平分子试图通过“卡吉尔边境冲突”破坏和平,这再一次将印度和巴基斯坦两国推向了战争的边缘。由于印度和巴基斯坦都很恐惧“相互确保摧毁能力”,危机最终逐步降级,并且两个国家组建了“事实调查委员会”去查明冲突的起因。南亚的和平给某些国家以很大的打击,这些国家每年向印度和巴基斯坦出售价值数十亿的武器,并且难以容忍中国的和平崛起。通过南亚安全环境和冷战战略平衡可以得出一个恰当的结论：尽管爆发了几次危机性事件,但由于核武器竞争对手的“准平衡”,冷战不会转向热战。
第四章讲述了在国际关系中国家使用战略平衡是出于两个原因：一、想阻止一个霸权国的出现。二、想限制敌对国家占据支配地位,因为这种支配地位会对其他国家的安全和生存构成切实的威胁。而实现这种目标的方式是追求软实力和硬实力的平衡。为实现各自的国家利益,印度和巴基斯坦在追求硬实力平衡之外还追求软实力平衡,这造成了南亚均势的复杂性。相对于巴基斯坦,印度在传统武器装备的组成上享有优势,而美国和印度的战略伙伴关系又使巴基斯坦难以超越印度的军事力量。美国对印度大量出售现代和尖端武器,打破了南亚区域的实力平衡。而巴基斯坦坚定和可靠的支持者——中国,帮助巴基斯坦沿着战略平衡的道路对抗印美战略伙伴关系,因为维持实力平衡是保证地区的和平和稳定必不可少的条件。
第五章论述了在实力平衡逐渐倾向印度的过程中,美国所扮演的角色。赫德利·布尔(Hedley Bull)认为大国也许会用它们的优势地位来维持国际秩序。但事实上,大国却采取了引起国际秩序混乱的政策,它们试图去扰乱而不是去维持国际秩序的总体平衡。南亚的和平与印度和巴基斯坦实力的均衡息息相关,但美国却利用其在国际体系中的优势地位向印度提供核交易,这等同于扰乱了南亚地区的实力平衡。可是具有讽刺意味的是,印美关系在历史中却没有享受过史无前例的蜜月期。显然,在印美高额核交易的背后有不可告人的目的。印美核交易将使印度战略地位迅速提升,而巴基斯坦和中国将是印美民用核交易的直接受害者,因为美国希望印度能够成为中国的制衡者。印美核交易直接违反了《不扩散核武器条约》和《全面禁止核试验条约》,而他们所持有的理由却是印度不是这两个条约的签字国。可是尽管如此,“大国核俱乐部”在对印美两国没有任何告诫的情况下认可了这种行为。与巴基斯坦相比,印美核交易肯定会提升印度的核实力,这很可能造成南亚地区实力的失衡。而中国作为南亚政治中影响力较大的国家,并且国际地位逐渐上升,与巴基斯坦进行合作,以重建南亚地区的实力平衡。
第六章叙述了中国通过维持印度和巴基斯坦的实力平衡,在维护南亚地区和平与稳定中发挥了关键的作用。尽管印度不是《不扩散核武器条约》的成员国,但印美的民用核交易行为和美国法律上对印度的核项目的认可,肯定会给印度以核技术上的优势。作为“非北约盟国”和美国领导的反恐战争的前沿阵地,巴基斯坦一直期望从美国得到与印度类似的核交易,可是美国直截了当地拒绝与巴基斯坦进行任何民用核交易,巴基斯坦的希望破碎了。而印美民用核交易将会为印度的核武器项目提供额外的铀原料,这会削弱南亚现存的威慑力,巴基斯坦的战略家对此深表担忧。最终,当美国拒绝聆听要与印度取得同等待遇的持续请求后,巴基斯坦转向依靠其“全天候”的朋友——中国,以追赶上印度的核优势地位。作为正在崛起的大国和南亚最近的邻居,中国在南亚拥有既得利益,中国真诚的期望南亚保持和平与稳定,因为这将有利于中国的和平崛起以及地区的和平与繁荣。正如1998年核展示之后所见的,印度和巴基斯坦的实力均衡确保了南亚地区的相对平衡。
Chapter one provides a theoretical framework to the study which further helps in clarifying goals and objectives of this study. To understand South Asia's dynamics of balance of power,"Realist Paradigm" tries to establish that despite the advent of globalization and other contending liberal theories, fundamental nature of international politics has not changed drastically. Anarchic structure of world politics engenders a system of self-help where states formulate policies to defend against possible threats. If states do not acquire sufficient power they are more prone to become subservient to other powerful states. In such an anarchic structure balance of power is more effective than other theories and this logic truly elaborates the strategic environment of South Asia. Power can only be countered by power most effectively. States have been practicing balance of power since yore. Efficacy of this conception can be traced back to cold war scenario when U.S and USSR were on the brink of nuclear catastrophe but deescalated because of the fear of "Mutually Assured Destruction".Similarly maintenance of balance of power in South Asia ensures relative peace and stability. Disturbance in balance of power may push India and Pakistan to the "Brinksmanship" which would definitely engulf neighboring nuclear states as well.
Chapter two narrates that since independence of the Subcontinent, India and Pakistan waged several wars and the main reason of escalation was asymmetric power relationship between them. To reach power parity, Pakistan joined U.S sponsored security pacts like SEATO and CENTO whereas India did not join any bloc and got huge military and economic aid from both the superpowers. Sino-Indian border conflict (1962) made India a valuable asset for America to wield policy of containment against China and check China's rising influence in South Asia. India's "two-front antagonism" made India a common threat for Pakistan and China. Pakistan-India wars of1965and1971were direct outcome of Indian military superiority over Pakistan. The bad situation turned worse when India tested nuclear weapons in1974with technical and material assistance from USSR and USA, which had clearly tipped balance in India's favor. India's 'bullying approach' continued over Kashmir issue and once again in1998India threatened Pakistan by reincarnating nuclear tests. Pakistan's nuclear ambiguity came to end when Pakistan retaliated in a tit-for-tat fashion by conducting5nuclear tests within the15days of Indian test. Pakistan got remarkable support from China to reach balance against India. This way Pakistan endeavored to accomplish strategic parity with India.
Chapter three discourses that because of the 'nuclearization of sub-continent,' South Asian security experienced a paradigm shift. Pakistan's nukes ultimately managed to counter-balance India's nuclear monopoly in South Asia. Pessimistic anti-bomb lobby in Washington expressed deep concerns about the eruption of a nuclear war. But balance of power worked so smartly that both the countries initiated peace process with reincarnated zeal and zest to end half-century long rivalry including perennial dispute of Kashmir. China appreciated peace efforts and vowed to support Pakistan in its detente with India. India and Pakistan used all-encompassing diplomatic skills to enhance military and non-military CBMs. Internal and external Anti-peace elements maneuvered to sabotage peace by triggering 'Kargil war' and once again pushed both the countries to the'Brinkmanship'. Fear of 'Mutually Assured Destruction' was so intensive that crisis deescalated and both states constituted a'fact finding commission' to figure out causes of war. Peace in South Asia inflicted a heavy blow on the interest of those powers who sell weapons, worth billions of dollars annually to India and Pakistan and cannot tolerate China's peaceful rise. Such acts of sabotage temporarily derailed peace process but could not trigger any full-scale war. An appropriate analogy can be drawn between South Asian security environs and'Cold War' strategic balance when there erupted several undesirable incidents but cold war could not turn into hot war because of Quasi-balance between nuclear armed rivals.
Chapter four holds forth that States carve out balancing strategy in international relations because of two simple reasons. Either they want to prevent the rise of a hegemon or hamper the rise of an inimical state to a predominant position where it could pose any real threat to other's security and survival. States follow soft balancing and hard balancing to accomplish this very objective. In case of complex balancing of South Asia where India and Pakistan are engaged in soft as well as hard balancing to further their respective national interest. India enjoys superiority over Pakistan in conventional arms build-up. America's Strategic partnership with India made Indian military capability insurmountable. Huge sales of modern and sophisticated American weapons to India could disturb regional balance of power. Pakistan's staunch and reliable supporter China helps Pakistan to follow the path of balancing strategy against Indo-US strategic partnership. Maintenance of balance of power is sine qua non for regional peace and stability.
Chapter five dissertates about the role of United States in tipping balance of power in India's favor. Hedley Bull enunciates that great powers may use their predominance in the maintenance of international order. But in practice, major powers adopt such policies which even promote disorder. Sometimes great powers seek to upset the general balance rather than to preserve it. Peace in South Asia is directly linked with maintenance of balance of power between India and Pakistan. But United States by exploiting its predominance in international system offered India a nuclear deal which is tantamount to upset regional balance of power and the irony is that India-US did not enjoy unprecedented honeymoon period in their mutual relations historically. Obviously, there are some clandestine objectives behind such a hefty nuclear deal. Pakistan and China are the immediate affectees of Indo-US civil nuclear deal. Indo-US nuclear deal would reward India with an abrupt upthrust strategically. United States aspires to enable India as a counter-balancer of China. Though Indo-US nuclear deal was in direct contravention of NPT and CTBT because of India's non-signatory status to both the international regimes but nuclear club ratified it without any expostulation. This Indo-US nuclear deal would certainly strengthen Indian nuclear capability compared to Pakistan which is definitely likely to upset regional balance of Power. China as a biggest stake holder in South Asian politics stepped up and clinched the similar strategic deal with Pakistan to reconstruct regional balance.
Chapter six babbles out China's crucial role in the maintenance of peace and stability in South Asia by preserving balance of power between nuclear armed rivals. Indo-US civil nuclear deal certainly provided India with nuclear supremacy in terms of nuclear technology and de jure recognition to Indian nuclear program, though India is not a party to NPT (Nuclear nonproliferation Treaty). Pakistan has been expecting similar deal from United States as being "Non-NATO ally" and a frontline state in American led war against terrorism. Pakistan's hopes to receive similar treatment were shattered when U.S categorically rejected any civil nuclear deal for Pakistan. Pakistani strategists are deeply concerned that Indo-US civil nuclear deal would feed supernumerary Uranium to Indian nuclear weapon program and debilitate the existing deterrence. Ultimately, when America refused to hear Pakistan's persistent demands of equal treatment with India then Pakistan rested on its "all-weather-friend" China for catching up with Indian nuclear superiority. China being the rising power and an immediate neighbor has got vested interests in South Asia. China earnestly desires preservation of peace and stability in the region which is conducive for China's peaceful rise and beneficial for regional peace and prosperity. Balance of power between India and Pakistan could certainly ensure relative peace in the region as was witnessed after1998nuclear showcase.
引文
1 BROOKS G. STEPHEN,WOHLFORTH C. WILLIAM, World Out of Balance, International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy[M],New Jersey:Princeton University Press,2008:7
2 Ibid.61
1 NYE S.JOSPEH(Jr.),Understanding international Conflicts:An Introduction to theory and History[M],6th.ed,New York:Longman,2007:65
1 BULL HEDLEY, The Anarchical Society, A Study of Order in World Politics[M].3rd.ed.London:Palgrave,2002:101
2 Ibid.98-99
1 WALT M. STEPHEN, "Alliance formation in South West Asia:Balancing and Bandwagoning in Cold War Competition'", JERVIS ROBERT. SNYDER JACK, Dominoes and Bandwagons:Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rim land[C],New York:Oxford University Press,1991:54
2 BULL.Op.cit.107
1 NYE S. JOSPEH(Jr.),Understanding international Conflicts:An Introduction to theory and History[M],6th.ed,New York:Longman,2007:60
2 Ibid.
3 WALT M. STEPHEN, Alliance formation in South West Asia:Balancing and Bandwagoning in Cold War Competition, JERVIS ROBERT, SNYDER JACK, Dominoes and Bandwagons:Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rim land[C],New York:Oxford University Press,1991:54
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2 Anti West and anti-liberal forces is indeed a chip of the same block. Their challenge to Western values and armed struggle reflects that there are other stronger forces besides liberalism. The event of 9/11 has transformed recent history and caused a paradigm shift in international relations.
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1 ODGAARD LISELOTTE, The Balance of Power in Asia Pacific Security; US-China Policies on Regional Order[M].New York:Routledge,2007:25
2 NATO was formed by United States and its West European Allies to combat threat of Communism and to counter United States military might with her Western allies Soviet Union concluded Warsaw pact to maintain a power balance between them.
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1 BROWN CHRIS,KRISTEN AINLEY, Understanding International Relations[M].3rd.ed.New York:Palgrave Macmillan,2005:97
1 Cold war was an ideological war between two superpowers, due to the involvement of two players in the maintenance of balance of power, is called simple balance of power. The powers (US, USSR) adopted various strategies to balance against each-other, they made Alliances (US sponsored SEATO, CENTO, NATO) and USSR counterbalanced by concluding WARSAW pact.
1 During mid eighteenth century, France and Austria (now detached from Spain) were joined as great powers by England, Russia and Prussia, At that time all major powers were involved in maintaining a situation as balance of power, due to the involvement of more than three, major powers and their further alliances with other major and minor states made the situation complex. That symbolizes a complex balance of power situation.
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1 SHEEN.Op.Cit.122-123
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1 Cold war had divided the world into two hostile camps (Capitalists and Communists).United States needed allies to contain peril of Communism while USSR needed allies to export communist ideology. Newly independent states during this era got invitation from both the superpowers to join their blocs. In search of their security, newly establishes states were eager to join either bloc for cementing their security and survival. Pakistan joined US sponsored bloc and became signatory of US sponsored security pacts in Asia (SEATO, CENTO).
2 ALI GHULAM, Fifty fifth Anniversary of Sino-Pakistan relations:An Appraisal. Cfcc.nthu.edu.tw/chinastudies/fellowship-symposium/Ali's%20paper%20cfcc.doc
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1 There were about 560 Semi autonomous princely states existed at the time of independence. Some of them were situated in Pakistan and some were in India. Last Viceroy, Lord Mountbatten stipulated that states were with free choice to join either side. At the time of independence only four states were yet to be decided (Junagadh, Jodhpur, Hyderabad and Kashmir).The first three had the Hindu majority and Muslim ruler and the Kashmir had the opposite. Kashmiri Raja was Hindu and the population was Muslim. India later on used military force to capture that region and even today unresolved territorial dispute. Pakistan and India for the first time engaged into military conflict over Kashmir.
1 WYNBRANDT.Op.cit.166-168
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2 Ibid
1 Nuclear Threat Initiative, China's Arms Supplies to Pakistan http://www.nti.org/db/china/mpakpos.htm
2 ALVI HAMZA, Pakistan-US Military Alliance [J], Economic and Political Weekly, June 20-26,1998,33(25):1555
3 COHEN P. STEPHEN, India:Emerging Power[M].Washington D.C, Brooking Institution Press,2001:132
1 Aircraft Supplies to Indian Armed Forces, Economic and Political Weekly [J].March22,1975,10(12):499, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm.
2 Ibid.499
1 MEZZRA MARCO, The Nature of Friendship:Making sense of Sino-Pakistani Relations, Norwegian Peace Building Resource Centre,SeptembeT2011,Issue 6:2
2 Arms Supplies to India, Economic and Political Weekly[J]March22,1975,10(12):499
3 Arms Supplies to India, Economic and Political Weekly[J]March22,1975,10(12):499
1 The Pakistan-India Question, International Organizations[J].1966,20(4):72
2 Beijing Review[J],1965,8(26):8
1 Beijing Review[J],1965,8(26):7
2 SINGH GURNAM, Sino-Pakistan Relations:The Ayub Era[M],Amritsar:Gurunanak Dev University Press 1987:177
1 SCHANBERG H.SYDNEY,Pakistan Divided[J],Foreign Affairs,Oct,Oct,1971,50(1):125
1 SCHANBERG H. SYDNEY, Pakistan Divided[J], Foreign Affairs,Oct,1971,50(1):p.130-131
2 SCHANBERG H. SYDNEY, Pakistan Divided[J], Foreign Affairs,Oct,1971,50(1):132
1 PORTE LA ROBERT, Jr. Pakistan in 1972:Picking Up the Pieces[J], Asian Survey,Feb 1973,13,(2):187
2 BHUTTO A.Z, Bhutto in 1969, Pakistan Forum,[J].April-May,1972,2(7):4
3 BHUTTO A.Z, Bhutto in 1969, Pakistan Forum,[J].April-May,1972,2(7):4
1 FAZAL-UR-REHMAN, Pakistan-China Relations at 60(May20,2011) http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2011-05/20/content 22601724.htm
2 LISA CURTIS, China's Military and Security Relationship With Pakistan(May26,2009) http://www.heritage.org/research/testimony/chinas-military-and-security-relationship-with-pakistan
3 AGHA S. AYESHA, Pakistan's Arms Procurement and Military Buildup 1979-1999;In Search of a Policy[M].New York:Palgrave Macmillan,2001:107 (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm)
1 CHEEMA IQBAL PERVEZ, The Armed Forces of Pakistan[M], Australia:Allen & Unwin,2001:167-168
1 COHEN.Op.cit.127
2RIZVI H. ASKARI, Pakistan's Nuclear Testing,[J].Asian Survey, November/December,2001:945-46
1 SINGH NIHAL, Why India Goes to Moscow for Arms [J], Asian Survey,July, 1984,24(7):708
2 Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto is said to be the architect of Pakistan's nuclear device. He remained foreign minister in president Ayub Khan's cabinet and later in 1971 became prime minister of Pakistan. Bhutto was against US imperialist policies against Pakistan. He took the peoples of Pakistan into confidence and kicked off Uranium enrichment at Pakistan which was later materialized by Dr Abdul Qadir Khan, who came from Holland to serve the cause of Pakistan.
3 STORK JOE, Pakistan's Nuclear Fix[R], MERIP Middle East Report.No143,Nuclear Shadow over the Middle East.(Nov-Dec 1986):16
4 CHARI P.R, Pakistan's nuclear posture and India's Options[J], Economic and Political Weekly,Jan.19,1980,15(3):117
1 COLLINS LIAM, United States Diplomacy with Pakistan Following 9/11; A Case Study in Coercive Diplomacy(May16,2008) http://wws.princeton.edu/research/cases/coercivediplomacy.pdf
2 STORK.op.cit.17
1 SINGH.Op.cit.708
2 ELKIN F.JERROLD,RITZEL ANDREW, The Indo-Pakistani Military Balance[J], Asian ,1986,26(5):519
1 CHARI.Op.cit.117
2 KAPUR ASHOK. A Nuclearizing Pakistan, Some Hypotheses[J], Asian Survey,May,1980,20(5):498
3 CHARI.Op.cit.119
1 MEZZRA.Op.cit.3
2 DIXIT N J. India-Pakistan in War and Peace[M].London:Routledge,2002:333
1 China's Security Assistance to Pakistan. see:http://www.nti.org/db/china/mpakpos.htm
1 GUPTA AMIT. The Indian Arms Industry:A Lumbering Giant[J], Asian Survey,Sep,1990,30(9):846
2 United States transferred extensive arms support to Pakistan in wake of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Pakistan as a front-line state collaborate US in Afghan war and had to use weaponry against Soviet occupants. India got the tip-off that Pakistan's arms resources were depleted to great extent, which resulted in aggressive Indian behavior with Pakistan. Later on India nuclear tests invoked Pakistan to test her nuclear devices too.
1 PAUL.Op.cit.164
2 COHEN.Op.cit.178
1 LOWEL DITTMER, On the Current Status and Future Outlook of the South Asian Nuclear Security Environment, LOWELL DITTMER, South Asia's Nuclear Security Dilemma, India, Pakistan and China[M],New York, An East Gate Book,2005:189
2 US council on foreign relations constituted an independent task force to present a report about series of nuclear tests conducted by India and then by Pakistan. The purpose of the independent task force was to look into the factors that triggered tensions in South Asia and second primary objective was to seek recommendation how to contain further proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destructions (WMDs). HAAS N.RICHARD, HALPERIN H. MORTON, After the Tests:US Policy towards India and Pakistan[R]. Council on Foreign Relations,September,1998
3 RIZVI.Op.cit.946-48
1 Pakistan-US Strategic Dialogue; Political and Diplomatic Dimensions, Islamabad Policy Research Institute, Paper No.3,May,2002 http://ipripak.org/papers/Pakusstrategic.shtml
2 HAAS.Op.cit.5
1 SHEEN.Op.cit.171
2 Deterrence is a phenomenon that helps to create fear of consequences in the minds of rival actors. Deterrence exists between animals, individuals, groups, states and group of states. Deterrence worked during cold war to deescalate between US and USSR, similarly nuclear deterrence is effectively shunning India and Pakistan to engage into any deadly armed conflict. Due to mutual fear of destruction between India and Pakistan both preferred to find solution of long simmering Kashmir dispute politically rather than militarily.
1 Indian P.M Visits Pakistan, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/281764.st
2 Data about Lahore Declaration can be found on United States institute of Peace library, Peace Agreements digital collection, Retrieved from,http://www.usip.org/library/pa/ip/ip_lahorel9990221.html
3 Ibid.
Data about Lahore Declaration can be found on United States institute of Peace library, Peace Agreements digital collection, Retrieved from,http://www.usip.org/librarylpa/ip/ip_lahore19990221. html
1 India-Pakistan Peace Process(Fact Files) http://ipripak.org/factfiles/ffl8.shtml
2 Lahore Declaration Signed Between India and Pakistan, http://www.ipcs.org/issues/articles/176-ip-krishna.htm
3 The Lahore Declaration, Prospects for Dialogue Between India and Pakistan(Fact Files) http://ipripak.org/factfiles/ff42.shtml
4 India-Pakistan Peace Process(Fact Files) http://ipripak.org/factfiles/ffl8.shtml
1 According to the data available to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute by March,2011 India remains world's largest arms importer. India received 9 per cent of the volume of international arms transfers during 2006-10, with Russian deliveries accounting for 82 per cent of Indian arms imports. There is intense competition between suppliers for big-ticket deals in Asia the Middle East, North Africa and Latin American states. http://www.sipri.org/media/pressreleases/armstransfers
1 LYON PETER, Conflict Between India and Pakistan:an Encyclopedia[M].California:ABC-CLIO,2008:96
2 CHARI P.R, CHEEMA IQBAL, PERVEZP.COHEN P. STEPHEN. Four Crisis and the Peace Process:American Engagement in South Asia[M],Washington D.C :Brookings Institution Press,2007:118
3 JUDITH MILLER,JAMES RISEN,A Nuclear War Feared Possible Over Kashmir, The New York Times(August8,2000) http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/global/080800india-pakistan.html
1 CHARI et.al Op.cit.120-23
2 CHARI et.al Op.cit. P123
1 RAHUL ROY CHAUDHRY, The United States'Role and Influence on The India-Pakistan Conflict, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, http://www.unidir.org/pdf/articles//pdf-art2117.pdf
1 CARRANZA ESTEBAN MARIO, South Asian Security and international Nuclear order; Creating a Robust Indo-Pakistani Nuclear Arms Control Regime[M],Burlington:Ashgate,2009:78
2 WRISING G. ROBERT, Kashmir in The Shadow of War:Regional Rivalries in Nuclear Age[M],New York:M.E. Sharpe,2003:50
3 Cuban Missile Crisis, BELFER CENTRE for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School http://www.cubanmissilecrisis.org/page2.asp
1 As a result of civil-military turbulent relations in Pakistan's Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif s government was toppled by Military Chief Pervaiz Musharraf in October 1999.Musharraf assumed power as a Chief Executive of the country. He ruled Pakistan as Chief Executive from 1999-2001 and as President from 2001-08.
2 ASTHANA VANDANA,SHUKLA ASHOK, Security in South Asia, Trends and Directions[M],New Delhi:S.B Nangia,2004:269
3 HARMON E. DANIEL, Pervez Musharraf; President of Pakistan[M],Delhi:Read How You Want,2008:57-58
4 BANDYOPADHYAYA J, The Making of India's Foreign Policy[M],New Delhi:Allied Publishers,2003:284
1 BANDYOPADHYAYA J, The Making of India's Foreign Policy[M],New Delhi:Allied Publishers,2003:284
2 CARRANZA.Op.cit.163
3 COLLINS.Op.cit.2
1 AHSAN M. AHRARU, Pakistan as a Key Non-NATO Ally,ASIA TIMES(March20,2004) http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC20Df01.html
2 Bush Names Pakistan a Major Ally, BBC NEWS(June17,2004) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/3814013.stm
3 HUSSAIN ZAHID, Frontline Pakistan:The Struggle With Militant Islam[M],New York:Columbia University Press,2007:49
4 BAXTAR CRAIG, Pakistan on The Brink, Politics, Economics and Society[C],Maryland:Lexington Books,2004:46
1 EHSAN M.AHRARI, Pakistan as a Key Non-NATO Ally, ASIA TIMES(March20,2004) http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FC20Df01.html
2 DAVID RHODE,ERIC SCHMITT,US will Celebrate Pakistan As a Major Non-NATO Ally, THE NEW YORK TIMES(March19,2004) http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/19/world/us-will-celebrate-pakistan-as-a-major-non-nato-ally.html
3 BUCKLY MARY,SINGH ROBERT, The Bush Doctrine and War on Terrorism, Global Responses and Global Consequences[C],New York:Routledge,2006:92
4 BUCKLY MARY,SINGH ROBERT, The Bush Doctrine and War on Terrorism, Global Responses and Global Consequences[C],New York:Routledge,2006:93
1 GUPTA AMIT, Strategic Stability in Asia[M],Hampshire:Ashgate Publishing Company,2008:141
1 As a result of atrocities in State of Jammu and Kashmir by Indian forces, Kashmiri freedom fighters were carrying out operations to striking back Indian persecution. Secondly Religious based Organizations in Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed were on the terrorist list of India. On the bases on this India was accusing Pakistan of supporting terrorist activities in India. There were no solid evidences were produced against accused organization. Indian propaganda to malign Pakistan's image as state sponsoring terrorism was working to amass international support on the issue. Later on Pakistan declared these organizations outlawed due to American pressure and Indian demands.
2 2001 Suicide Attack on Indian Parliament, BBC NEWS(December13,2001) http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/13/newsid_3695000/3695057.stm
3 Indian Police:Parliament Attack Mastermind Killed, CHINA DAILY(August31,2003)(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-08/31/content_259902.htm
1 CHARI et.al Op.cit.152-53
2 India-Pakistan Peace Process(Islamabad Policy Research Institute Fact File) http://ipripak.org/factfiles/ff18.shtml
3 PAUL.Op.cit.167
4 KAPUR PAUL, Dangerous Deterrent:Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia[M].Singapore: National University Singapore Press,2009:133
1 PAUL.Op.cit.167-168
2 The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is an organization of South Asian nations; it was founded in December 1985 to enhance cooperation in economic, technological, social, and cultural development of member states. Its seven founding members are Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Meetings of heads of state are usually scheduled annually; meetings of foreign secretaries, twice annually. It is headquartered in Kathmandu, Nepal. There are almost 16 stated areas of cooperation are agriculture and rural, biotechnology, culture, energy, environment, economy and trade, finance, funding mechanism, human resource development, poverty alleviation, people to people contact, security aspects, social development, science and technology; communications, tourism and terrorism.(www.saarc-sec.org)
3 The Economic Times,Vajpayee meets Pakistan leadership, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
1 JAFFRELOT CHRISTOPHE, A History of Pakistan and Its Origins[M],London:Wimbledon Publishing company,2002:290
2 Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, http://www.issi.org.pk/old-site/ss_Detail.php?dataId=282
1 CHOUDHRY AHMAD ISHTIAQ,AKHTAR RABIA, India-Pakistan Peace Process 2004-2008:A Case Study of Kashmir[J], Research journal of International Studies,March,2010, Issue 13:48-49
2 Ibid.49
3 SHAHID IRFAN JAMIL, The South Asian Free Trade Agreement(SAFTA):Towards a Multilateral Framework,(2004) http://www.wto-pakistan.org/documents/publications/SAFTA_towards_a_multilateral_framework.pdf
1 JIM YARDLEY, India and Pakistan Fail to Resolve Glacier Dispute At Talks, THE NEW YORK TIMES(May31,2011) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/world/asia/01india.html
1 ALI NADIR, General Musharraf's Four Point Formula Can Provide an Effective Roadmap in Kashmir[R], Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. Special Report.99,(March,2011),New Delhi.
2 Ibid
1 GOSH SAMARJIT, Two Decades of indo-Pak CBMs,A Critique from India[R],Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies,Sep,2009,issue132:1-2, New Delhi
1 GOSH SAMARJIT, Two Decades of indo-Pak CBMs,A Critique from India[R],Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies,Sep,2009,issue132:2, New Delhi.
1 Cuban Missile Crisis, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/cuba-62.htm
2 Cuban Missile Crisis, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, http://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/Cuban-Missile-Crisis.aspx
3 JAMES H. HANSEN, Soviet Deception in The Cuban Missile Crisis; Learning from the Past(Central Intelligence Agency) https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol46no1/article06.html#fn1
4 BYRNE J. PAUL, Snapshots in The History, The Cuban Missile Crisis to the Brink of War[M], Minneapolis: Compass Point Books,2006:15
5 Ibid.74-75
1 The Cuban Missile Crisis http://www.umbc.edu/che/tahlessons/pdf/The_Cuban_Missile_Crisis%28PrinterFriendly%29.pdf
1 China Helps Pakistan, http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=180002
2 JONATHAN MARCUS,India-Pakistan Military Balance, BBC News(May9,2003) see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1735912.stm
1 JONES W. RODNEY, Conventional Military Imbalance and Strategic Stability in South Asia[R],(March,2005).South Asia Strategic Stability Unit, Research paper No.1:4-9
2 VIRENDER SINGH SALARIA, India-US Security Cooperation, Past Present and Future[D],Fort Leavenworth Kansas(2011-2012):41 see:www.hsdl.org/?view&did=705059
1 VIRENDER SINGH SALARIA, India-US Security Cooperation, Past Present and Future[D],Fort Leavenworth Kansas(2011-2012):61-65 see:www.hsdl.org/?view&did=705059.
1 Report to the Congress on India-US Security Cooperation[R],US Department of Defense(November,2011):1-6 see：http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/20111101 NDAA Report on US India Security Cooperation.pdf
2 Ihid.
3 S.AMER LATIF,Us-India Military Engagement,Steady as They Go[R].A Report of CSIS,Centre for Strategic and International Studies(December.,2012):1-9
1 S.AMER LATIF,Us-India Military Engagement, Steady as They Go[R].A Report of CSIS, Centre for Strategic and International Studies(December,2012):9
2 Bruce Riedel, A Breakthrough in US-Indian Relations,(August29,2012).The National Interest see: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/breakthrough-us-indian-relations-7392
1 JONES.Op.cit.5-9
2 MARGHERITA STANCATI, India Fires a Message to China,[OL/J].The Wall Street Journal,(April20,2012) see: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303513404577352763499718738.html
1 PIERRE J. ANDREW, Cascade of Arms, Managing Conventional Weapons Proliferation[M],Massachusetts:The World Peace Foundation,1997:2
1 Pakistan Intelligence, Security Activities and Operations Handbook[C],Washington D.C:International Business Publications,2011:205
1 Al-Khalid MBT-2000/Type 2000 Main Battle Tank see: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/pakistan/mbt-2000.htm
1 F-16(Military),Global Security see:http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/pakistan/f-16.htm
2 Information was retrieved from official site of Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra, information regarding JF-16 can be accessed at http://www.pac.org.pk/jfl7.html
3 Ibid
1 United States of America Congressional Record, Proceedings and Debates of 106th Congress Second Session,Vol,146,Partl2,(July 27,2000 to Sep,12,2000):17890
2 Pakistan's Ballistic Missile Arsenal. Fact Sheets and briefs, Arms Control Association see: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/agni
3 ZHANG YUNLING, Rising China and World Order[M],New jersey:World Scientific Publishing,2010:2
1 Gawadar Port Authority, Symbol of Prosperity see:http://www.gwadarport.gov.pk/Home.aspx
2 The Express Tribune(August 14,2011)
1 The Washington Times(January 17,2005) China is building strategic relationships along the sea lanes from the Middle East to the South China Sea in ways that suggest defensive and offensive positioning to protect China's energy interests, but also to serve broad security objectives, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/jan/17/20050117-115550-1929r/
2 CURRIER LIU.CARRIE,DORRAJ MANOCHEHER,)，China's Energy Relations With The Developing World[M], New York:The Continuum International,2011:159
3 Ibid.159
1 ODGAARD.Op.cit.25-27
1 FAREED ZAKARIA, The Future of American Power; How American Can Survive the Rise of The rest(May-June,2008),Foreign Affairs http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63394/fareed-zakaria/the-future-of-american-power
2 Papers Presented by Professor Barry Buzan with the topic "A World Order without Superpowers:De-centered Globalism "International Workshop on Great Powers, World Order and International Society:History and Future. Sponsored by Institute of International Studies, Jilin University Changchun, P.R China
1 JMARQUARDT J. JAMES, Transparency and American Primacy in World Politics[M], Surrey: Ashgate,2011:137-138
2 Debate on the topic of "Beware of the Dragon:A booming China Spells Troubles for America" was sponsored by Intelligence2 Debates. It can be accessed at http://intelligencesquaredus.org/index.php/past-debates/beware-the-dragon-a-booming-china-spells-trouble-for-america/
3 BARU SANJAY, India-United States Relations Under the Obama Administration[R],December10,2008, Institute of South Asian Studies Insights,No,38:1
1 India's Nuclear Energy program and 123 Agreement with United States see: http://www.nti.org/media/pdfs/3_17.pdf?_=1317412774
1 Joint Statement between President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, The White House(July 18,2005) http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2005/07/20050718-6.html
2 RAM AN A SIDDARTH, India and the Nuclear Deal [R],2008, British American Security Information Council(BASIC) London,No.7:2
1 OTFRIED NASSAUER, Nuclear Sharing in NATO,IS it legal, http://www.ieer.org/sdafiles/vol_9/9-3/nato.html
2 OTFRIED NASSAUER, Nuclear Sharing in NATO,IS it legal, http://www.ieer.org/sdafiles/vol 9/9-3/nato.html.
1 DAFNA LINZER, Bush Officials Defend India Nuclear Deal, The Washington Post,(July20,2005) thttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/19/AR2005071901847.html
1 RAMANA.Op.cit.3
2 HOUSE OF COMMONS, Foreign Affairs Committee South Asia, Fourth Report of Session 2006-07:18
2 HUNTLEY L. WADE,SASIKUMAR KARTHIKA, Nuclear Cooperation With India; New Challenges New opportunities[C],Vancouver:Simons Centre for Disarmament and Non Proliferation Research,2006:43-44
3 LEVI A. MICHAEL,FERGUSON D. CHARLES, US-India Nuclear Cooperation, A Strategy for Moving Forward[M],New York:Council on Foreign Relations,2006:3-4
1 SRIDHAR KRISHNASWAMI.US House Votes for Nuclear Deal, The Hindu,(July28,2006) http://www.hindu.com/2006/07/28/stories/2006072812290100.htm
2 DAVIMCKEEBY, Bush Welcomes Senate Approval of US-India Nuclear Agreement, Vote Seen as Major Step toward New Strategic Partnership Between Democracies,November17,2006,American Government Archives. http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2006/November/20061117171748idybeekcm0.2382471.html
3DAVI MCKEEBY, Bush Welcomes Senate Approval of US-India Nuclear Agreement, Vote Seen as Major Step toward New Strategic Partnership Between Democracies,November17,2006,American Government Archives. http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2006/November/20061117171748idybeekcm0.2382471.html
1 CURTIS LISA,SPRING BAKER,U.S Nuclear Agreement with India:An Acceptable Deal for Major Strategic Gains(August14,2007),The Heritage Foundation, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2007/08/us-nuclear-agreement-with-india-an-accentable-deal-for-maior-strategic-gain
2 BAJORIA JAYSHREE, PAN ESTHER, the US-India Nuclear Deal[R], November5,2010, Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.cfr.org/india/us-india-nuclear-deal/p9663
AGEEMENT123, Op.cit.
1 BASU J. PRASENJIT.CHELLANY BRAHMA,KHANNA PARAG,KHILNANI SUNIL, India as a new Global Leader,[M]London:Foreign Policy Centre(FPC),2005:66-67
2 RAMANA SIDDARTH, Where Phalcons Dare, India-Israel Defense Relations[J],May,2008, Institute of peace and conflict studies, issue 68:1
3 RAMANA SIDDARTH, Where Phalcons Dare, India-Israel Defense Relations[J],May,2008, Institute of peace and conflict studies, issue 68:2
4 ISN, Centre for Security Studies(CSS),ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch-Archive/Detail/?id=53611&lng=en
1 India Launches Key Spy Satellite, BBC News(April20,2009) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8007653.stm
2 RAMANA.Op.cit.3
3 India-France Sign Multi-dollar Nuclear Deal, The Times of India,(December6,2010) http://www.timesnow.tv/India-France-sign-multi-dollar-N-deal/articleshow/4359903.cms
1 KAMRAN YOUSAF, France-India Nuclear Deal:Pakistan Sees Serious Strategic Implications, Tribune (December7,2010),,http://tribune.com.pk/story/86827/france-india-nuclear-deal-pakistan-sees-serious-strategic-implications/
2 JONATHAN PEARLMAN, Julia Gillard Seeks Australian Nuclear Deal With India The Telegraph (November15,2011), http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/nuclearpower/8891348/Julia-Gillard-seeks-Australian-nuclear-deal-with-India.html
1 UK-India Sign Civil Nuclear Deal, Energy Business Review(February15,2010) http://nuclear.energy-business-review.com/news/uk_india_sign_civil_nuclear_deal_100215
2 ROSA PRINCE, David Cameron Agrees Nuclear Deal with India against Official Advice, The Telegraph(July28,2010) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/7913835/David-Cameron-agrees-nuclear-deal-with-India-against-official-advice.html
1 Canada and India Sign Nuclear Cooperation Deal,BBC News South Asia(June28,2010) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10430904
2 India, Canada Sign Nuclear Deal, The Times of India (June28,2010) http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-06-28/india/28281128_1_agreement-and-completion-canada-sign-civil-nuclear-cooperation
1 NIRMALA GEORGE, Putin in Deal to Build Nuclear Reactors in India, Moscow Sign Agreement That Will See Russia Help Construct to 20 Atomic Plants, The Guardian(March12,2010) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/12/russia-india-nuclear-reactor-deal
2 India Russia Sign Deals on Fighter Jets, Nuclear Energy,DAWN(December21,2010)http://www.dawn.com/2010/12/21/india-russia-sign-deals-on-fighter-jets-nuclear-energy.html
3 Russo-Indian Nuclear Deal, Euro news (March 13,2012) http://www.euronews.net/2010/03/13/russo-indian-nuclear-deal/
1 DEAN NELSON,BEN FARMER, Pakistan Threatens Nuclear Arms Race Over India Deal, The Telegraph(January28,2011) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8286301/Pakistan-threatens-nuclear-arms-race-over-India-deal.html
1 1998 World Fury at Pakistan's Nuclear Tests, BBC NEWS(May28,1998) http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/may/28/newsid_2495000/2495045.stm
1 GRIMMET F. RICHARD, Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations[R],2003-2010. Congressional Research Service, prepared for members and committee of congress.
2 Ibid. p60
1 DR ROSITA DELLIOS, The Rise of China as a Global power, http://www.international-relations.com/CM6-2WB/GlobalChinaWB.htm
1 JOSHUA KURLANTZICK, China as a Global power At last, (September28,2009) The Council on Foreign Relations Committee. http://www.cfr.org/china/china-global-power-last/p20313
2 ELI LAKE, China Deemed Biggest Threat to US. The Washington Times (March 10,2011) http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/mar/10/china-deemed-biggest-threat-to-us/?page=all
3 JAYSHREE BAJORIA, Op.cit.
1 JAYSHREE BAJORIA, Op.cit.
1 China and US Poised for Clash Over Sale of Reactors to Pakistan, The Nation.June21,2010
2 DR. RAJA MUHAMMAD KHAN, The Legal Aspects of the Deal,(Julyl,2010) http://www.opinion-maker.org/2010/07/sino-pak-nuclear-deal/#
1 MUHAMMAD JAMIL. Sino-Pakistan Nuclear Collaboration, http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=57684
2 STEPHEN P.COHEN in an Interview with JYOTI MALHOTRA, In the US, even those against the deal like India,(October13,2008), http://www.livemint.com/2008/10/12224959/In-the-US-even-those-against.html
1 SARAH BULLEY, China and Pakistan Move Forward With Nuclear Deal. Centre for Strategic and International Studies,(June8,2010) http://csis.org/blog/china-and-pakistan-move-forward-nuclear-deal
1 ASHLEY J. TELLIS, the China-Pakistan Nuclear Deal Separating Fact from Fiction, Policy Outlook (July 16, 2010).Carnegie Endowment for International Peace http://carnegieendowment.org/files/china_pak_nukel.pdf
2 DIN SHAW MISTRY, India's Nuclear testing:The Consequences for International Security (Case Study# 19). http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/resources/publications/case_studies/19/index.html
3 MUHAMMAD JAMIL Op.cit http://armscontrolnow.org/2011/06/21/germany-opposes-united-states-on-china-pakistan-nuclear-deal/
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