摘要
大连市是我国北方严重的缺水地区之一,人均水资源量604m~3,分别相当于世界和全国平均水平的1/10和1/4。随着社会经济的发展、人民生活水平的提高,人类不断地大规模开发利用水资源,加之水资源使用后巨量的污水排放,不但导致水资源数量的急剧减少,水资源质量也逐渐降低,致使许多国家和地区出现了严重的水问题和水资源危机,水资源已经成为大连市经济可持续发展的一个瓶颈。因此对大连市的水资源承载力及优化配置进行研究,对均衡大连市水资源利用与国民经济发展的关系具有重要的现实意义。论文主要研究内容与成果如下:
(1)详细分析与阐述了水资源承载力及优化配置的基本理论。分析了水资源承载力的定义、内涵、特性及其影响因素;阐述了水资源优化配置的概念、原则、研究内容及形式。
(2)大连市自然地理概况、社会经济状况及水资源现状。本文选择以大连市为研究实例,搜集了大量资料,总结了大连市水资源、社会、经济等状况。
(3)在介绍了水资源承载力主成分分析模型的基础上,首先建立了反映大连市水资源承载力的评价指标系统,并对大连市2001年～2009年的水资源承载力进行了定量分析。研究结果表明,这些年来大连市水资源承载力逐年衰弱,水资源已严重制约大连市社会经济可持续发展。
(4)采用系统动力学Vensim软件,建立了以水资源承载力为约束条件的水资源配置模型,对大连市水资源进行了优化配置,通过模拟优化方案显示,大连市2010年、2013年、2016年、2019年、2022年、2025年水资源需求量分别为3.270×10~9m~3、3.256×10~9m~3、3.310×10~9m~3、3.433×10~9m~3、3.513×10~9m~3、3.560×10~9m~3;可利用水资源量分别为2.316×10~9m~3、2.480×10~9m~3、2.649×10~9m~3、2.822×10~9m~3、2.993×10~9m~3、3.162×10~9m~3;水资源供需差额分别为9.547×10~8m~3、8.237×10~8m~3、7.530×10~8m~3、7.338×10~8m~3、6.658×10~8m~3、5.596×10~8m~3,水资源短缺程度分别为0.292、0.249、0.221、0.206、0.182、0.150。
最后,总结全文的研究成果,并对有待进一步研究的问题进行展望。
Dalian is one of serious water shortage regions in northern China, the average per person water resources quantity 604m3, is equal separately to the world and the national level l/10 and l/4.Along with the economic development, living standards enhancement, people exploits and utilizes water resources on a large scale continually and diseharges a volume of waste water, which not only result the water resources quantity reduction, but also the quality of water resources is gradually reduce. And these cause many countries and regions have severe water problems and water resources crisis, the water problem has become the bottleneck of sustainable economic development in Dalian. Studies on the carrying capacity and the disposition optimal analysis to Dalian,s water resourees has significance for regulating the relationship between water resources and national economic development of Dalian.The main study content and conelusions are as follows:
(1) Analysis and description of some fundamental conceptions and theories of evaluation of water resources the Carrying Capacity and the disposition. Analyzed the water resources carring capacity, including definition, connotation, characteristies and influence factors; concept, principle, study content and form of water resources disposition are elaborated.
(2) The status of physiographic, socity economic and water resource in Dalian. Take Dalian as study region, colleeting the related date, sununarized the status of water resources, soeiety and eceonomy decelopment, and ecological environment in Dalian.
(3) The regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation method based on Main Component Analysis theory is introduced in this paper and the index system for evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is established, the degree of water carrying capacity in 2001～2009 has been evaluated. The results show the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian is decreasing year by year, resulting the reduction of sustion development of the city.The water resources already became restricts the Dalian social economy and the ecological environment coordinated development primary factor.
(4) System dynamics software used Vensim, set up a water distribution system dynamics model of water resources in Dalian , seeks solves the Dalian water resources short way and the way. The simulation results show that the amount of water demand is 3.270×10~9m~3、3.256× 10~9m~3、3.310×10~9m~3、3.433×10~9m~3、3.513×10~9m~3and 3.560×10~9m~3in the year of 2010、2013、2016、2019、2022 and 2025 respectively. And the available water amount is 2.316×10~9m~3、2.480×10~9m~3、2.649×10~9m~3、2.822×10~9m~3、2.993×10~9m~3、3.162×10~9m~3 respectively.The balant of supply and demand of water resources is 9.547×10~8m~3、8.237×10~8m~3、7.530×10~8m~3、7.338×10~8m~3、6.658×10~8m~3、5.596×10~8m~3 respectively. And the water resources shortage degree is 0.292、0.249、0.221、0.206、0.182、0.150 respectively.
FiIlally, research results of the whole paper are given, some research to be futher stuldied are presented.
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