摘要
在市场经济中,价格是最有效的调节机制,合理的电价政策,对于改变我国目前电力生产与消费中能耗过高、污染严重的局面,具有举足轻重的作用。为实现我国电力工业的可持续发展,从促进节能减排和可再生能源电力发展的独特绿色视角,对相关电价政策进行评析,就电价存在的相关问题进行优化研究,提出一套绿色电价政策建议方案,具有非常重要的理论价值和实际意义。
建立了基于时间序列乘法模型和GARCH模型的梯次组合最大负荷预测模型,和基于优选组合模型的最大峰谷差预测模型。运用时间序列乘法模型对最大负荷样本序列进行拟合,并用GARCH模型对误差进行修正,以提高预测质量;选取合适的单一模型对最大峰谷差序列进行拟合,在此基础上,以组合预测误差平方和最小为目标建立最优加权组合预测模型,综合各种方法的优点,得到最优的最大峰谷差预测结果。
分析了我国电力行业节能减排和可再生能源电力发展的现状,指出了当前存在的一些问题,并提出了相应的对策建议。介绍了我国现行的电价机制,并以实现电力工业可持续发展为目标,从独特的绿色视角,对现行电价政策进行了评析。
对煤电价格联动机制进行了改进研究。建立了火力发电企业成本—利润分析模型,提出了“利润煤价弹性”概念以反映电煤涨价对发电利润下降的影响程度,指出了当前煤电价格联动机制存在的问题,并提出了相应的完善建议。
建立了基于峰谷时段划分和DSM的峰谷电价模型。采用模糊数学方法为峰谷时段划分提供科学的理论依据,在此基础上,以削峰填谷、使系统的日负荷曲线变得更加平滑为目的建立了考虑用户反应的峰谷电价模型,并在约束条件中设定了一个高峰时段电价约束,即峰时段的电价不应该高于小发电机组发电的成本价,从而减少小机组在高峰时段顶峰发电的动力,促进节能减排。
对我国可再生能源电力价格形成机制进行了研究。将经济学理论应用到可再生能源促进政策的分析中,阐析不同的促进政策对电力市场结构及社会剩余的影响,为决策提供参考依据。针对我国现行可再生能源电价政策的特点和问题,提出了可再生能源电价机制的完善思路和各类可再生能源发电技术的电价政策选择方案。
提出了促进节能和可再生能源电力发展的绿色电价政策建议。
In market economy,price is the most effective adjustment mechanism,a reasonable power price policy plays a decisive role for changing the situation that the energy consumption is too high and the pollution is serious in the production and consumption of electricity at present of China.For the realization of the sustainable development about China's electric power industry,from the unique green angle of promoting energy-saving and renewable power development, making research on the evaluation of the performance of electricity price policy and its optimization,and bringing forward a set of the green electricity policy proposals,have very important theoretical value and practical significance.
Peak load forecasting model based on time-series multiplication model and GARCH model,and maximum peak-valley difference prediction model based on combination optimization model were built.Time series multiplicative model was selected to fit the peak load sample sequence,and GARCH error amending model was chosen to amend the fitting errors to improve the prediction quality. Three suitable single models were selected to fit the maximum peak-valley difference sequence,then the optimal weighted combination prediction model was established according to the principle that minimizing the sum of forecasting square error.
An analysis of the current status of energy-saving,emission reduction and development of renewable energy power about the power industry in China was made,some problems existed currently were point out,and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were brought forward.The current electricity price mechanism of China was introduced,and some analysis and evaluation about its performance were made from the unique green angle of protecting the supply of conventional energy generation,energy saving and supporting renewable energy generation.
The improvement research about the linkage mechanism between the coal price and power price was made.The model of cost-profit analysis about thermal power plant was established,especially the concept of“profits coal price flexibility”was brought forward to reflect the impact extent to the profit of thermal power plant when coal price appreciates.The current problems in coal and electric power price linkage mechanism were put forward,and the corresponding improvement proposal was given.
Peak-valley price model based on peak-valley time period partition and DSM was build.Fuzzy mathematical method was adopted as theoretical basis for the peak-valley time period partition,then the peak-valley price model was built considering the response of consumer.In order to reduce the generating motivity of small thermal power plant during peak periods,so to promote energy-saving and emission reduction,a price restriction during peak periods of using electricity was set in the constrained condition,namely the price during peak periods would never be higher than the running cost of small generators.
Research on the formation mechanisms of renewable energy power price in China was made.Economic theory was applied to the analysis of promotion policy for renewable energy,the impact of different promoting policies on the structure of electricity market and the social surplus was explained to provide reference for decision-making.According to the characteristics and problems of current price policy for renewable energy electricity,the improvement thought of renewable energy pricing mechanisms and optional pricing policy ideas for each kinds of renewable energy technology were brought forward.
Recommendations about green electricity pice policy were made to promote energy conservation and the development of renewable energy.
引文
[1]国家发展与改革委员会能源局、能源研究所《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》政府建议稿起草工作组.中华人民共和国可再生能源法(政府建议稿)论证研究报告[R].2005,2.
[2]国家发改革委能源局、能源研究所《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》政府建议稿起草工作组.可再生能源相关政策、法规以及文献汇编[R].2005,3.
[3]HoIt,E.A.;Ellis,M.Trends in Green Power Marketing in Australia and the United States.Power Engineering Review[C].IEEE Power Engigeering Review,1997,17(12):17-23.
[4]L.Bird,R.Wustenhagen,J.Aabakken.A review of international green power markets:recent experience,trends,and market drivers[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2002,6:513-536.
[5]Fredric C.Menz.Green electricity policies in the United States:case study[J].Energy Policy,2005,33:2398-2410.
[6]Rolf Wustenhagen,Jochen Markard,Bernhard Truffer.Diffusion of green power products in Switzerland[J].Energy Policy,2003,31:621-632.
[7]Rolf Wustenhagen,Michael Bilharz.Green energy market development in Germany:effective public policy and emerging customer demand[J].Energy Policy,2006,34:1681-1696.
[8]Hammons,T.J.;Boyer,J.C.;Conners,S.R.;Davies,M.;Ellis,M.;Fraser,M.;Holt,E.A.;Markard,J.Renewable energy alternatives for developed countries.Energy Conversion[C].IEEE transactions on energy conversion,2000,15(4):481-493.
[9]T.J.Hammons.Impact of electric power generation on green house gas emissions in Europe:Russia,Greece,Italy and views of the EU Power Plant Supply Industry—a critical analysis[J].Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2006,28:548-564.
[10]De Tuglie,E.;Dicorato,M.;La Scala,M.Disclosing environmental attributes to stimulate “Green Power” marketing.Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting[C].IEEE transactions on energy conversion,2000,15(3):585-611.
[11]王仲颖.从英国可再生能源开发经验看我国可再生能源开发机制(一)[J].中国能源,2000,(2):15-20.
[12]王白羽.可再生能源配额制(RPS)在中国应用探讨[J].中国能源,2004,26(4):5-11.
[13]任东明.关于建立我国可再生能源发展总量目标制度若干问题探讨[J].中国能源,2005,27(4):18-23.
[14]任东明,张宝秀,张锦秋.可再生能源发电配额制政策(RPS)研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2002,12(6):23-27.
[15]樊杰,孙威,任东明.基于可再生能源配额制的东部沿海地区能源结构优化问题探讨[J].自然资源学报,2002,18(4):45-49.
[16]顾树华,刘白羽.对中国可再生能源配额制的研究与探讨[J].科学新闻,2003,21(7):5-50.
[17]尹春涛.绿色电力营销——可再生能源发展的市场动力[J].中国能源,2004,26(1):56-60.
[18]戴双凤,吴运生.绿色电力的营销障碍与对策探讨[J].电力需求侧管理,2007,9(6):23-27.
[19]刘艳丽.浅论我国电力企业绿色营销策略[J].价格与市场,2007,1(4):12-16.
[20]刘连玉.对可再生能源配额制的考察与思考[J].中国电力,2002,(9):74-77.
[21]G8集团.可再生能源工作组最终报告[R].2000.
[22]国家计委/国合会能源工作组.可再生能源电力市场配额制政策研讨会论文集[C].2001.120-125.
[23]曾东红.发达国家可再生能源融资法律制度的发展趋势及借鉴[J].南方经济,2005,(12):12-16.
[24]李霞,史瑞琼.能源经济可持续发展与促进可再生能源发电法律制度研究[J].能源与环境,2005,(4):36-40.
[25]国家发展计划委员会基础产业发展司.中国新能源与可再生能源白皮书(1999)[M].中国计划出版社,2000.
[26]李艳芳.我国《可再生能源法》的制度构建与选择[J].中国人民大学学报,2005,(1):52-57.
[27]肖江平.我国《可再生能源法》的制度设计[J].中国法学,2004,(2):23-26.
[28]F.C,SehwePPe,M.C.Caramanis,R.D.Tabors,R.E.Bohn.Spot Pricing of Electricity[M].Kluwer Aeademic Publishers,1998.
[29]Guan Xiao-hong,Ho yu-chi,Pepyne.Gaming and Price Spikes in Eleetric Power Markets[C].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2001,16(3):123-138.
[30]Bastian J,Zhu Jinxiang,Banunarayanan V,et al.Foreeasting Energy Prices in a Competitive Market[C].IEEE Computer Applications in Power,1999,12(3):52-58.
[31]Benini M,Marracei M,Pelaechi P,et al.Day-ahead market price volatility analysis in deregulated electrie ity markets[C].IEEE PES Summer Meeting.2002,1418-1423.
[32]苏娟,杜松怀,周兴华.电力市场现货电价预测方法研究状况综述[J].继电器,2005,33(16):32-36.
[33]胡朝阳,孙维真,汪震等.考虑市场力的短、中、长期电价预测[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(22):23-28.
[34]张显,王锡凡,陈芳华等.分时段短期电价预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(13):45-49.
[35]Nmnura T,Ko Hee-sang,OzawaK.A day-ahead eleetricity price prediction based on a fuzzy-neural autoregressive model in a deregulated electrieity market[C].Intemational Joint Conference on Neural Networks,2002,158-164.
[36]周浩,陈建华,孙维真.电力市场中的电价分析与调控[J].电网技术,2004,28(6):23-28.
[37]杨洪明,刘建华.电力市场环境下电价区域划分问题的尺度空间层次聚类算法[J].电网技术,2004,25(22):54-59.
[38]张富强,周浩.电力市场中的电价分布问题[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(4):26-32.
[39]D.Parker.Price cap regulation,profitability and returns to investors in the UK regulated industries[J].Utilities poliey,1997,6(4):54-60.
[40]S.Borenstein.The trouble with electrieity markets:understanding california's restructuring disaster[J].Journal of Economic Perspectives,2002,16(1):47-52.
[41]刘树杰.促进节能与可再生能源发展的电价政策研究[J].中国物价,2005,(8):23-30.
[42]李才华,罗鑫,张粒子.完善可再生能源电价机制的设想[J].价格理论与实践,2007,(5):23-28.
[43]时璟丽.关于在电力市场环境下建立和促进可再生能源发电价格体系的研究[J].可再生能源,2008,30(1):43-47.
[44]谭忠富,侯建朝.电价设计与电力产业节能的关系研究[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2007,(2):56-59.
[45]孙振清,张希良,赵振军.对可再生能源发电实行长期保护性电价制度的问题[J].可再生能源,2005,(1):57-59.
[46]国家电力监管委员会、国家发展和改革委员会、国家能源局.2007年电力企业节能减排情况通报[R].2008,10.
[47]国家电力监管委员会.可再生能源电量收购和电价政策执行情况监管报告[R].2008,7.
[48]国家发展和改革委员会.关于建立煤电联动机制的意见的通知:发改价格[2004]2909号.2004.
[49]中国注册会计师协会.税法[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2006.
[50]丁乐群,翟绘景,黄兴等.煤电价格联动机制对发电成本-利润影响分析[J].中国电力,2007,40(9):19-22.
[51]丁宁.基于 DSM 的峰谷时段划分及分时电价的研究:[硕士学位论文].南京:南京理工大学,2002.
[52]汤玉东,王明飞,邹云.基于 DSM 的分时电价研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2000,12(3):62-68.
[53]刘严,谭忠富,张艳红.探析我国分时电价设计的相关问题[J].价格理论与实践,2005,11(6):34-40.
[54]陈智勇.消费者心理学[M].北京:北京工业大学出版社,1998.
[55]徐光烽.运筹学基础手册[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
[56]徐绳均,张国立,牛东晓.运筹学及其在电力系统中的应用[M].北京:水利电力出版社,1995.
[57]李星光,武春友.可再生能源发展促进政策的经济学分析[J].科技管理研究,2008,(3):49-52.
[58]Hwang S Y,Baek J S.Asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of sample autocorrelations for threshold-asymmetric GARCH processes[J].Statistics,2009,43(1):35-51.
[59]Hafner C M.Causality and forecasting in temporally aggregated multivariate GARCH processes[J].Econometrics Journal,2009,12(1):127-146.
[60]Kallsen J,Vesenmayer B.COGARCH as a continuous-time limit of GARCH(1,1)[J].Stochastic Processes and Their Applications,2009,119(1):74-98.
[61]Hinich M.Falsifying ARCH/GARCH models using bispectral based tests[J].Communications in Statistics-Theory And Methods,2009,38(4):529-541.
[62]Mailer R A,Muller G,Szimayer A.GARCH modelling in continuous time for irregularly spaced time series data[J].Bernoulli,2008,14(2):519-542.
[63]Grigoletto M,Provasi C.Misspecification testing for the conditional distribution model in GARCH-Type processes[J].Econometric Reviews,2009,28(1):209-224.
[64]Curto J,Pinto J,Tavares G N.Modeling stock markets' volatility using GARCH models with normal,student's and stable paretian distributions[J].Statistical Papers,2009,50(2):311-321.
[65]Lee T,Lee S.Normal mixture quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for GARCH models[J].Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,2009,36(1):157-170.
[66]Kristensen D.On stationarity and ergodicity of the bilinear model with applications to GARCH models[J].Journal of Time Series Analysis,2009,30(1):125-144.
[67]Aknouche A,Bentarzi M.On the existence of higher-order moments of periodic GARCH models[J].Statistics & Probability Letters,2008,78(18):3262-3268.
[68]Bordignon S,Caporin M,Lisi F.Periodic Long-Memory GARCH Models[J].Econometric Reviews,2009,28(1):60-82.
[69]Park J A,Baek J S,Hwang S Y.Persistent-threshold-GARCH processes:Model and application[J].Statistics & Probability Letters,2009,79(7):907-914.
[70]Bibi A,Aknouche A.Probabilistic properties of periodic GARCH processes[J].Comptes Rendus Mathematique,2009,347(5):299-303.
[71]Aknouche A,Bibi A.Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of periodic GARCH and periodic ARMA-GARCH processes[J].Journal of Time Series Analysis,2009,30(1):19-46.
[72]Thavaneswaran A,Appadoo S S,Ghahramani M.RCA models with GARCH innovations[J].Applied Mathematics Letters,2009,22(1):110-114.
[73]Stawiarski B.Score test of fit for composite hypothesis in the GARCH(1,1)model[J].Journal of Statistical Planning And Inference,2009,139(2):593-616.
[74]Chan N H,Chen J,Chen X H,et al.Statistical Inference for multivariate residual copula of GARCH models[J].Statistica Sinica,2009,19(1):53-70.
[75]Wu J H,Zhu L X.Testing the adequacy of GARCH-type models in time series[J].Acta Mathematica Scientia,2009,29(2):327-340.
[76]Francq C,Zakoian J M.Testing the nullity of GARCH coefficients:correction of the standard tests and relative efficiency comparisons[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,2009,104(485):313-324.
[77]李金颖,张世英,何永贵.关于环境成本与绿色电价机制的思考[J].价格理论与实践,2004,(3):15-20.
[78]王霞,王丽萍.国外电价制度及对我国电价改革的启示[J].电力技术经济,2003,(1):13-16.
[79]孙华,孟颖岚.国外电价制度及对我国电价改革的启示[J].黑龙江科技信息,2008,(20):26-29.
[80]刘达,牛东晓,邢棉,等.基于 GARCH 误差校正的遗传支持向量机日前电价预测[J].电力系统自动化,2007,31(11):29-35.
[81]李俊.基于博弈论的需求侧分时电价研究:[硕士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学,2006.
[82]雷绍兰.基于电力负荷时间序列混沌特性的短期负荷预测方法研究:[博士学位论文].重庆:重庆大学,2005.
[83]陈昊.基于非高斯分布 GARCH 模型的负荷预测[J].电力自动化设备,2008,28(7):18-24.
[84]张步涵,刘小华,万建平,等.基于混沌时间序列的负荷预测及其关键问题分析[J].电网技术,2004,28(13):23-28.
[85]孙艳.基于混沌时间序列和神经网络的电力短期负荷预测:[硕士学位论文].广西:广西大学,2007.
[86]刘振华.基于混沌特性的电力负荷时间序列预测方法研究[硕士学位论文].西安:西南交通大学,2007.
[87]付磊.基于可持续发展的绿色供应链管理设计策略研究[硕士学位论文].吉林:吉林大学,2008.
[88]张林,罗晓初,徐瑞林,等.基于时间序列的电力负荷预测新算法研究[J].电网技术,2006,7(2):23-27.
[89]张林,刘先珊,阴和俊.基于时间序列的支持向量机在负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2004,28(19):12-17.
[90]莫玲.基于时间序列和人工神经网络的电力系统短期负荷预测[硕士学位论文].南昌:南昌大学,2006.
[91]张汝根.可持续发展环境下的我国企业绿色营销研究[硕士学位论文].辽宁:辽宁工程技术大学,2005.
[92]陈启杰.可持续发展与绿色营销研究[博士学位论文].厦门:厦门大学,2001.
[93]杨磊.可持续发展战略下中国税制绿化研究[博士学位论文].复旦:复旦大学,2006.
[94]罗鑫,张粒子,李才华.可再生能源电价制度与市场研究[J].价格月刊,2006,(7):15-19.
[95]节宁.绿色电力和绿色电价[J].中国电力企业管理,1999,(12):22-26.
[96]王爱民.绿色营销创新的理论研究——基于环境经济学与可持续发展理论[硕士学位论文].武汉:武汉理工大学,2003.
[97]敬志红.绿色营销与农业可持续发展问题研究[博士学位论文].湖南:湖南农业大学,2003.
[98]洪隽.欧洲电价监管及对我国电价改革的启示[J].中国价格监督检查,2008,(7):12-16.
[99]杨正瓴,张广涛,林孔元.时间序列法短期负荷预测准确度上限估计[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2004,16(2):55-58.