摘要
冰川被认为是气候变化最敏感的指示器和存储器,也与气候变化、水资源、海平面上升和冰川灾害等有密切的关系。因而,冰川变化信息的监测具有重要的科学和现实意义。近几十年来,全球变暖已经导致我国乃至全球范围内的冰川大面积退缩,直接影响到冰川补给河流径流的变化。冰川变化的研究也从传统单一的直接观测向多数据源、多种间接观测的方向发展。3S技术的发展为冰川学研究提供了强有力的支持,并可以帮助我们有效地提取冰川变化信息,从而揭示冰川变化规律。
本论文选取青藏高原东北缘祁连山东段冷龙岭地区的现代冰川作为研究对象,基于地形图、遥感影像、GPS测量、实地野外考察、布设花杆等一系列方法和手段来研究冰川的面积、长度、厚度和冰储量的变化以及冰川的运动和消融等,并结合气象资料进一步探讨冰川变化的机制及其对气候变化的响应。本文初步得到以下几点结论：
1)1972年,冷龙岭地区共发育有现代冰川244条(其中220条<1km2),面积101.6km2,冰储量3.299km3；而2012年冰川面积减少至66.7km2,面积退缩率为34.4%(0.86%/a)。1972～2012年,西冷龙岭地区冰川总面积共减少了27.5km2,占1972年冰川面积的31.9%,平均减少速率为0.68km2/a(0.80%/a)；但不同时段的面积退缩速率却不尽相同,其中1995～1999年的退缩速率最大(1.28%/a),1999～2002年次之(1.15%/a),而1972～1995年最小(0.79%/a)；南坡退缩速率(1.06%/a)要高于北坡(0.69%/a)；按规模统计,小冰川的面积退缩速率明显要高于大冰川。
2)1972-2010年,宁缠河和水管河河源的9条冰川的末端都在持续退缩(均值为4.7±1.5m/a),并伴随着2～81m的末端的升高(均值为39.3m),但末端的退缩速率有逐渐减缓的趋势；冰川总面积共减少了1.2km2(10%),冰川厚度平均减薄率为-0.64±0.29m/a,冰储量至少减少142.6±79.3×10-3km3。基于经验公式估算整个冷龙岭地区1972～2012年的冰储量减少了42%。
3)近50年来,冷龙岭地区冰川的持续退缩主要是由温度的升高引起,即使某时段降水量有所增加,其所带来的冰川积累量也不能弥补由温度升高引起的冰川退缩量。此外,该区域冰川的退缩是受气温、降水、冰川规模、地形等多种因素共同控制,其中气温上升幅度大和冰川自身规模较小是导致该区冰川强烈退缩的主要原因。西冷龙岭南坡的夏季气温升高幅度比北坡大,而冰川规模却比北坡小,致使南坡的面积退缩速率要高于北坡。
4)2010～2012年,宁缠河1号冰川的年物质平衡量为-1260mm,ELA约位于4660m,超过了该冰川的最大高度。SG04号冰川的消融区的年物质平衡量为-808mm,整个冰川的年物质平衡量在-808～294mm,ELA约位于4680m,较之1972升高了约180m。
5)2010～2011年,NC01号冰川的平均运动速度(2.8m/a)要低于SG04号冰川(5.2m/a)；此外,近期冰川的运动速度较之早期的观测数据显示其在减缓,指示持续的冰川消融引起的冰川规模的变化对冰川运动速度有着要重要的影响。
6)根据冰川消融与海拔的线性关系,通过度日模型,估算出西营河流域的冰川(占区域总面积的0.8%)2012年6月28日～2012年9月8日的融水总量为0.0083km3,占同时段流域总径流量的3.9%。若气温升高1℃,该流域冰川融水量将占流域总径流量的4.8%。
Glaciers are a critical component of the earth system. Present accelerated melting and retreat of glaciers has severe impacts on environment and human well-being, including vegetation patterns, economic livelihood, natural disasters, and water-energy supplies. Changes of glaciers in mountainous regions are widely recognized as one of the best natural indicators of global climate change. The decline in glacier extent in mountains and other regions contributes to sea level rise. The glaciers in the west of China are not only an important supply of the numerous rivers, but also a large solid freshwater resource, which affect the life of peoples of the western dry region. Under the background of global warming, most of glaciers in China are retreating and glacier retreat has become more aggravate since1980s. Compared with the traditional single direct observation method, studies of glacier changes have involved multi data sources and multi indirect observations. The combination of remote sensing, GPS and GIS can be used to help us extract glacier changes efficiently.
In this paper, the glaciers over the Lenglongling mountains in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau was investigate. Based on topographic map, satellite imagery, GPS measurement and stakes on the glacier surface, the changes of glacier area, length, elevation and ice volume are investigated. The glacial movement and ablation are discussed to investigate the glacier response to climate change. Results are summarized as followings:
1) There were244glaciers Lenglongling Mountain in1972with the area of101.6km2and ice volume of3.299km3, of which220glaciers were characterized by the glacial area less than1km2. The glacial area reduced to66.7km2by2012with the retreating rate of34.4%(0.86%/a). During1972to2012, the glacial area of the western Lenglongling Mountain reduced27.5km2, accounting for31.9%of the total area in1972. The average are retreating rate was0.68km2/a (0.80%/a), but the area changing rate was different in different periods. The rate was1.28%/a during1995～1999,1.15%/a during1999～2002and reached the minimum of0.79%/a during1972～1995. The retreating rate was higher in the southern slope (1.06%/a) than in the northern slope (0.69%/a).
2) During1972～2010, the fronts of9glaciers in the Ningchan and Shuiguan watershed had retreated between91±57.4m (2.4±1.5m/a) and250±57.4m (6.6±1.5m/a) in Ningchan and Shuiguan River. The total glacier area decreased by1.2km2accounting for9.9%of the glacierized area in1972. Mean thinning rate is approximately-0.64±0.29m/a in water equivalent (w.e.) in the measurement area and the wasting ice mass is about142.6±79.3X10-3km3. The ice volume in Lenglongling Mountain has decreased by42%from1972to2012.
3) The retreat of glaciers in the Lenglongling mountains were mainly resulted from the temperature rising. Though the precipitation during some period increased, the glacial accumulation cannot make up the glacier ablation caused by climate warming. Moreover, the glacier retreat were controlled by the combined impact of temperature, precipitation, the glacier size and topography, of which temperature and glacier size were the most important factors. Compared with the northern slope, the southern slope was characterized by more obvious temperature increase and smaller glacier size, leading to higher glacial area retreating rate in the northern slope.
4) The mean annual mass balance of NC01glacier was-1260mm during2010～2012. The ELA was at4660m, exceeded the maximum altitude of NC01glacier, which means the whole glacier is in ablation zone.. The mean annual mass balance of SG04glacier was-808mm, ranging from-808mm to-294mm. The ELA was at4680m, rising180m since1972.
5) The mean glacier velocity for NC01and SG04glacier was2.8m/a and5.2m/a, respectively during2010～2011. The results showed that the glacier velocity decreased compared with the early studies, indicating that the variation of glacier scale due to continuous glacier ablation had a major impact on the glacier velocity.
6) According to the linear relationship between glacier ablation and elevation, the volume of melting water during28June～8September2012, was0.0083km3in the Xiying watershed based on degree-day model. The volume of glacial melting water accounted for3.9%of the total discharge, which would increased to4.8%assuming the temperature increased by1℃.
引文
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