21世纪初期中美伊大三角地缘战略研究
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摘要
国际政治、经济与地缘格局随时在变化发展。全球性和区域性三角关系构成的地缘战略互动成为国际关系和地区问题的支点。三角关系中的中国-美国-伊朗关系,对于当今中东、亚太地区乃至世界政局的变化,起着稳定或崩解的作用。
     中国是历经60多年艰苦奋斗发展起来的世界发展中大国,不懈地坚持着“改革开放”的基本国策并追求和平崛起的坚定目标;伊朗经伊斯兰革命和两伊战争的磨练后,走伊斯兰道路重建家园,壮大经济,输出革命,特别是借助美国发动或主导的海湾战争、阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争,重新崛起成为中东的经济、政治、军事强国;美国虽然实力处于衰退的状态,但是世界第一强国的地位短期内无可替代。正是这三个在地理空间上相隔遥远、文化传统以及社会制度迥然不同的国家,由于国家利益的纠葛、全球化以及信息社会的到来,一直产生和维系着极其微妙而又十分复杂的重要联系,形成了“飞地型”的地缘战略“大三角”格局,将世界上的东方儒家文明、中东的伊斯兰文明以及美国代表的西方文明连接起来,共同构筑起中东版块、亚太板块、世界版图的地缘政治格局框架。
     本文采用地缘政治学、地理学、历史学、经济学、政治学的相关理论和方法来研究21世纪初期中美伊大三角地缘战略格局,分析中国、美国、伊朗的地理区位和地缘特征,分析三国分别组合成的双边(中美、中伊、美伊)关系和双边战略,分析中伊关系中的美国因素、中美关系中的伊朗因素、美伊关系中的中国因素。在此基础上探讨全球视角中的“飞地型地缘战略三角互动关系”的理论(模式)与实践。本文认为:国家利益是中美伊大三角地缘战略格局形成的基础和动力,能源、核问题是影响或重构中美伊大三角格局的现实力量;无论是连续型的还是飞地型的战略三角,地缘因素在地缘战略三角互动中的作用将长期存在;文明需要求同存异:中国的社会主义制度以及传统的“和为贵”、“中庸”哲学、伊朗的政教合一体制以及伊斯兰原教旨主义、美国的人权与民主掩盖下的强权-霸权,既是大三角各自的特色,又是确立和强化各自地位的工具。
     本文共由五部分组成:
     第一部分,绪论,主要说明论文的选题依据与意义、研究方法与创新之处、研究内容与思路、研究重点与难点等;对国内外研究现状进行综述。
     第二部分,分析美伊关系及其中国因素的影响。重点分析美伊关系的现实表现、特征、问题与实质以及两国各自在双边关系中的战略选择;深入分析中国对于美伊两国的地理区位意义及中国因素对美伊关系的影响。
     第三部分,分析中伊关系及其美国因素的影响。重点分析中伊关系的现实表现、特征、问题与实质以及两国各自在双边关系中的战略选择;深入分析美国对于中伊两国的地理区位意义及美国因素对中伊关系的影响。
     第四部分,分析中美关系及其伊朗因素的影响。重点分析中美关系的现实表现、特征、问题与实质以及两国各自在双边关系中的战略选择;深入分析伊朗对于中美两国的地理区位意义及伊朗因素对中美关系的影响。
     第五部分,在上述分析的基础上,探讨全球视角中的“飞地型地缘战略三角互动关系”的理论(模式)与实践。
     本文的主要创新之处在于:首次尝试以“飞地型”三角地缘战略理论,对中国、美国、伊朗三国关系进行实证性研究。
     本文的不足之处可能体现在:一、地缘战略是一门综合性学科,对资料的筛选和运用要求很高,本文对资料的把握能力尚显不足。二、限于本人的学识,首次以“飞地型”三角地缘战略理论,对三角关系进行实证性研究,是一种勇气和尝试。三、本文的研究方法沿用传统的定性研究法,主观性较强。四、中美伊“大三角”格局错综复杂,加之世界格局与国际关系无时无刻不在变化发展,本文对中美伊地缘战略三角关系机制的探讨仍处于初级阶段。
International political, economic and geopolitical structure changes at any time. Strategic interaction formed by global and regional triangle becomes to be the fulcrum of study on international relations and regional issues. The Sino-US-Iran relationship as a triangular relationship has a stable or disintegration effect on the Middle East, the Asia Pacific and the world politic.
     China, after 60 years of development, is growing into a big power in developing country, perseveringly and tireless efforts to adhere to the basic state policy of "reform and opening" and the firm pursuit of peaceful rise; Iran, through the Islamic Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war, after the Islamic way to go to rebuild, expand economy, export revolution, rise as a economic, political, military power in the Middle east, with the advance of the Gulf war, Afghanistan war and Iraq war US-lead; the USA, whose strength is in state of decay, but the world's first powerful nation status can not be replaced in a short term. It was the three country far apart in the geographical space, be totally different in cultural traditions and social systems, has been producing and maintaining an extremely subtle and complicated important link because of national interest disputes, globalization and the coming of information society, forming a "enclave" geo-strategic "vital triangle" pattern, joining the world's eastern Confucian civilization, the Islamic civilization in the Middle East, as well as the Western civilization represented by United States together, building up the Middle East forum, Asia Pacific plate, map of the world geopolitics pattern framework.
     This paper adopts the geopolitics, history, geography, economics, politics theories and methods to the study on geopolitics Pattern of the Sino-USA-Iran vital
     triangle in the early twenty-first Century; analysis of geographical location and geographic features of China, the USA, and Iran; analysis of the three bilateral (Sino-US, Sino-Iran, US-Iran) relations and bilateral strategic; analysis of the American factor in the Sino-Iran relationship, the Iran factor in the Sino-US relationship, the China factor in the US-Iran relationship. Then, Searches for the enclave geopolitical strategic triangle interaction theory and Practice on a global perspective. This paper argues that:national interest is the base and power formed the Sino-US-Iran vital triangle geo-strategy pattern; energy, nuclear issue is the actual power effected the reconstruction of the vital triangular pattern; either continuous or enclave strategic triangle, geopolitical factors in strategic triangle interaction will exist for a long time; civilization needs to seek common ground while reserving differences:China's socialist system and the traditional "harmony", "the doctrine of the mean" philosophy, Iran's theocratic system and Islamic fundamentalism, human rights and democracy of the United States under the cover of power-hegemony, is the three country's respective characteristic, as well as the tool to establish and reinforce their respective status.
     This paper is made up of five parts:
     The first part the introduction, the main description of the research background and significance, research methods and innovation, research content and way of thinking, research focus and difficulty; and literature review.
     The second part, analysis of the US-Iran relationship and it's China factors. Focus on the analysis of the US-Iran relationship's realistic performance, characteristics, problems and essence, and strategic choice in bilateral relations; in-depth analysis of China's geographical significance for the USA and Iran, and China's impact on the US-Iran relationship.
     The third part, analysis of the Sino-Iran relationship and it's America factors. Focus on the analysis of the Sino-Iran relationship's realistic performance, characteristics, problems and essence, and strategic choice in bilateral relations; in-depth analysis of America's geographical significance for China and Iran, and America's impact on the Sino-Iran relationship.
     The fourth part, analysis of the Sino-US relationship and it's Iran factors. Focus on the analysis of the Sino-US relationship's realistic performance, characteristics, problems and essence, and strategic choice in bilateral relations; in-depth analysis of Iran's geographical significance for China and the USA, and Iran's impact on the Sino-US relationship.
     The fifth part, on the basis of the above analysis, to explore the "enclave geopolitical strategic triangle interaction" theory and Practice on a global perspective.
     The main innovation of this paper lies in:it is the first try to attempt to study Sino-US-Iran relationship based on the "enclave" triangle geopolitical strategy theory.
     The deficiencies of this paper may lies in:first, geopolitical strategy is a comprehensive discipline, demand in information screening and application is very high, the data is insufficient ability to grasp. Second, because of limited knowledge, the first empirical research on the triangular relationship based on the "enclave" triangle geopolitical strategy theory, is just a kind of courage and try. Third, take use of the traditional qualitative research method may lead to a stronger subjectivity. In fourth, the Sino-US-Iran vital triangle pattern is somewhat perplexing, together with the world pattern and international relations changes in every hour and moment, this discuss about the Sino-US-Iran geo-strategic triangle's mechanism is still at the primary stage.
引文
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