摘要
如今,全球环境变化已经成为世界性的热点问题,作为引起全球环境变化重要原因的土地利用变化及其带来的生态环境效应和生态系统健康等问题自然而然成为研究者关注的焦点。本文以崇明岛陈家镇-东滩地区作为研究区,因为该地区是典型的河口型潮汐滩涂湿地区域,集河口、海湾、湿地、农田、城镇等多种生态系统为一体。而且,近年来东滩的滩涂圈围等人类活动频繁,作为城镇开发利用和湿地保护的矛盾体,是研究土地利用和生态系统健康的理想区域。
本文以研究区四期(2000、2003、2005和2008年)的遥感影像为基础,采用遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)等相关技术,对研究区地物类型的空间结构变化、土地利用转移矩阵、面积变化的动态度和典型地物的分形特征等方面进行了研究分析,较全面的反映了近8年来崇明东滩地区的土地利用变化的情况及其特征。基于分析结果,并且综合考虑经济效益、社会效益和生态效益三个方面,构建多目标规划模型对研究区的地物类型组成进行优化,试图谋求研究区生态环境可持续发展的最佳途径。然后,采用元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型对研究区的未来土地利用变化状况进行预测,将预测结果与多目标规划模型优化结果进行比较分析。最终依据研究区的生态环境特点,将研究区划分为城镇、农田、湿地和近海四类典型生态系统,并根据区域的生态现状、生物多样性、环境污染、经济产出等方面特征选取了8个评价指标,分别对四类典型生态系统构建指标体系(将熵权法和专家打分法相结合来确定指标权重),运用压力-状态-响应(P-S-R)模型,从局域和区域两个尺度分别对研究区生态系统健康进行了评价。
另外,本文还设计了一个崇明东滩生态管理系统,提供了数据查询、统计图表、专题地图、图层标注等相关功能,希望可以为管理决策者提供一个技术平台。
Nowadays, the global environmental change has become a worldwide hot issue. Since the major reason for global environmental change is the land use change and its effects to the ecological environment and ecosystem health issues naturally become the focuses of researchers. In this paper, we took Chenjiazhen-Dongtan area in Chongming Island as an study area to research the relationship between the land use and ecosystem. As typical of estuarine tidal wetland areas, Dongtan has typical comprehensive ecosystems, such as the estuaries, bays, wetlands, farmlands, towns, et al. Moreover, there are more and more human activities in Dongtan, and the confliction between the urban development and the wetland protection is becoming more and more serious. So, Dongtan becomes the ideal study area to study the relationship between the land use and ecosystem health.
In this paper, the remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS) and other mathematical methods and technologies were employed to study the ecosystem pattern in Dongtan area in Chongming Island, Shanghai. The Landsat TM images of 2000,2003,2005 and 2008 were applied to interpret and analyst the land use in respect year. With the technology of GIS, the land cover change, spatial ecosystem structure, land use transfer matrix, the dynamic change of the ecosystems and the fractal characteristics of the typical ground objects were calculated and analyzed based on RS. These analyses could reflect the comprehensive change of study area in the past 8 years. With the outputs, a multi-objective planning model was constructed integrating the economical benefits, social benefits and the ecosystem benefits. The model optimized the composition of the surface feature, and tried to seek the optimist sustainable development way of the ecological environment in the study area. In addition, the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model was applied to predict the land use change in the study area. As well, we also compared the land use change predicted by CA-Markov model and the multi-objective planning model. Finally, on the basis of ecological condition of the study area, the study area was divided into four typical ecosystems:urban, farmland, wetland and coastal area. At the same time, 8 factors were selected according to biodiversity, environmental pollution, economic output and other aspects of the study area. The criteria systems were constructed repetitively for the 4 typical ecosystems and the factors'weights were defined on the combination of experts estimation and index weights method. We evaluated the ecological health of the study area from patch scale and the regional scale respectively on the basis of the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model.
In addition, a Dongtan eco-management system was designed in this paper. It provided the functions of data query, statistical charts, thematic maps, layer annotation and so on. Moreover, it was a technology platform for decision-makers to decide the development of Dongtan area in Chongming Island.
引文
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