摘要
本文以商业银行国际化的两个层次,商业银行机构国际化和业务国际化为线索研究商业银行国际化问题。并应用相关结论分析了商业银行地域选择理论和中国商业银行国际化的策略。主要创新包括,建立了商业银行机构国际化的国家选择方法；提出了以契约成本的角度来选择机构国际化的组织形式；在信息不对称的假设下通过模型分析得出了资金成本是外资银行在东道国信贷市场竞争的决定因素,并检验了资金成本是商业银行业务国际化的重要影响因素；建立了投资选择影响因素模型,并实证分析了影响组合投资的因素。
商业银行机构国际化选择可分为机构国际化途径选择和组织形式选择。商业银行机构国际化的途径,即选择新设机构还是并购的方式进行海外扩张。国际化的途径包括新建机构、并购、合作、联盟和联营等五种形式。商业银行机构国际化组织形式一机构国际化的载体,商业银行需要在代表处、代理行、分行等形式中做出选择。根据国家选择模型,银行机构国际化取决于东道国政府的目标和国内及外部约束条件,所以不同类型的国家所选择的外资银行进入的模式不同。我们把国家分为三类,分别为转型经济国家、非转型经济的发展中国家和发达国家。通过分析和总结发现,在转型国家由于东道国的特殊经济环境,给了外资银行选择最低成本进行机构国际化的机会,外资银行以并购和重组东道国银行的方式快速完成了主导市场的目标。而在非转型经济发展中国家外资银行只能适应东道国的发展目标选择新设机构的方式逐步进行机构国际化。而在发达国家则外资银行机构国际化的选择方式逐步由新设机构向并购转化。在契约的视角下选择机构组织形式即是选择一种契约,而契约是在约束条件下的契约成本选择。契约成本分成三部分,固定成本、监督成本和风险成本。代理行、分行和子行三种契约成本各不相同。代理行的监督成本较高,而分行的固定成本最高,子行的风险成本高于代理行和分行。跨国银行应综合分析各种契约成本,再结合三种组织建立后的经营成本和收益做出合理选择。
商业银行业务分为信贷业务和中间业务。在信贷业务国际化理论中,创造性地提出了外资银行取得信贷竞争优势的方法。即在信息不对称的条件下,外资银行相对东道国银行如果有资金成本上优势可以通过抵押品技术获得低风险企业市场。同时论证了外资银行资金成本低于东道国银行的条件,即母行技术和资金支持使外资银行资金的固定成本和交易成本低于东道国银行。在此基础上,实证检验了跨国银行资金成本与国际化程度的关系,检验结果表明较低的资金成本有助于提高国际化程度,说明降低资金成本是外资银行化解信息不对称的一种方法。
商业银行中间业务是跨国银行核心业务和利润增长最快的业务,中间业务的发展是经济发展与制度变迁共同作用的结果。影响商业银行中间业务国际化的因素分外部和内部因素两类。外部因素有东道国中间业务范围准入的限制、东道国经济发展水平、东道国的金融市场发展程度。从内部因素来分析,影响中间业务的因素可以分为三类,第一是商业银行的经营战略,这是其开展业务的基础,第二类是商业银行的创新能力,第三类是商业银行的经营和管理能力。通过实证分析表明,资产收益率、资产规模和流动性都有利于商业银行中间业务国际化的发展,规模、网络和品牌是中间业务的支撑；较高的资本充足率反应了银行的业务选择战略；金融市场的繁荣是双刃剑,正常繁荣是中间业务发展的支撑,但过度泡沫化却是灾难。商业银行投资国际化主要在全球范围内进行组合投资。在商业银行投资分析中通过创造性把直接投资和组合投资纳入到一个模型分析了影响商业银行国际投资选择的因素,为商业银行投资业务提供参考。模型和实证分析表明,在控制了GDP等因素的影响后,劳动成本、流动性、市场信息透明度对投资选择有显著的影响；较高的生产成本、投资者流动性较差和较不完全的市场信息都使投资更偏好组合投资,实证结果支持国际投资选择模型的结论；发达国家倾向于吸引组合投资,原因可以理解为发达国家的市场信息透明度更高；当投资者出现流动性短缺时组合投资更有吸引力。
结合商业银行机构国际化和业务国际化的结论,从理论和实践经验总结了商业银行国际化的地域选择参考指标。影响银行国际化的因素包括,经济增长潜力、成本、信息、自身流动性及资金能力和金融市场状况。各种因素对投资选择的影响不同,要求商业银行在选择投资地域时,应综合考虑所有因素,做出合理的投资选择,以增加预期收益。
结合国际化研究结论,还分析了中国商业银行国际化可以参考的策略。在讨论了中国商业银行国际化历史进程、经验、借鉴国外跨国银行经验得出：中国商业银行跨国并购需要谨慎,在国际化过程中以新设机构为主。在并购时选择有发展潜力而文化及政治冲突较少的地区,防止收购后整合失败。为提高国际化能力,建议在发达国家的开展业务和参股银行,通过学习来为发展奠定基础,也可以通过客户跟随来提高生存能力。
According to the two level of internalization of commercial banks, this thesis does research on the internationalization of institution and business of commercial banks, and analyzes the Regional Choice Theory and internationalization strategy of commercial banks in China on the basis of relevant conclusions. Its innovations is as follows:it establishes a national selecting method of the internationalization of commercial banks, proposes the forms of organization to realize internationalization from the perspective of contract costs, concludes through model analysis that the capital cost is the determinants of credit market competition for foreign banks in the host country under the assumption of asymmetric information obtained, analyzes the impact of international factors of the commercial banking business, establishes the investment model and analyzes the impact of portfolio investment empirically.
The choosing of internationalization of organization of commercial banks includes institutional internationalized way and choice of organizational form. The organizational internationalized way, namely, select the new body or the way mergers and acquisitions overseas expansion. Choice of organizational form includes new institutions, mergers and acquisitions, merger and acquisition, alliance and joint venture. Internationalization of organization of commercial banks, namely, carrier of international institutions, is to make choices between offices, agencies and branches. According to the State Select Model, internationalization of organization of banks depends on the host government's objectives and domestic and external constraints.so foreign banks have chosen different ways to enter different types of countries We classified countries into three categories:transition countries, developing countries and developed countries of non-transition economies. We find out by analyzing and summarizing that in transition countries, foreign banks always have been given opportunities to choose the lowest cost for international institutions as the host of the special economic environment, foreign banks lead rapid completion of the target market through mergers and acquisitions and restructuring of the host country banks. But in developing countries of non-transition economies, foreign banks can only choose to adapt to the host country's development goals, choose new institutional organization to realize internationalization step by step.While in the developed countries, the selection of internalization is gradually transformed to the M & A. Select agency form of organization in the perspective of contract, namely, contract selection, which means choosing the contracts which cost the least under certain circumstances. Contract costs are divided into three parts:fixed costs, monitoring costs and risk costs. Agents, branches and sub-line have different contract costs. Agency's monitoring costs is higher, while the branch has the highest fixed costs; the risk cost of sub-line is higher than the other two ones. International banks should have a comprehensive analysis of all contract costs, and then make choices.
Commercial banking business can be classified into credit business and intermediate business. As for credit business, I creatively put forward the foreign banks access to credit competitive advantage. Namely is, under the condition of asymmetric information, foreign banks can access to low-risk enterprise market by collateral technology if its Cost of capital lower than the host country banks. Through the establishment of capital cost function, I got the condition that foreign banks' capital costs is lower than those in the host countries, namely, the mother bank's technology and capital power make the fixed costs and transaction costs lower than those from the host countries.On the basis of this, I testified the relations between capital costs and degree of internationalization. The test results show that, a lower capital costs is helpful to improve the degree of internationalization, which means, to lower the capital costs is a way to deal with asymmetric information for international banks.
Commercial banks'intermediate business is a multinational bank's core business operations and profits of the fastest growing business; the development of intermediate business is a consequence of economic development and institutional change. The factor that influence intermediate business can be classified into three categories:The first is a commercial bank's business strategy, which is the foundation of its business, the second is the innovation of commercial banks, commercial banks, and the third category is the operation and management capabilities. The positive analysis suggests that, return on assets, asset size and liquidity are all helpful to improve the portion of commercial banks' intermediate business, which means, size, network and brand are supports of intermediate business, and a higher capital adequacy ratio reflects the bank's business strategy of choice. The prosperity of the financial markets is a double-edged sword; normal and prosperity are both backbones to intermediate business, while bubble is a disaster. Because commercial bank's investment is mainly portfolio, this thesis creatively put direct investment and portfolio into one mode to analyze the factors that influence portfolio investment, which provides references for commercial banks' investment. Both the models and analysis suggest that, after being in charge of factors like GDP or some, Labor costs, liquidity, market information and transparency have a strong influence on portfolio investment. Developed countries are more likely to attract portfolio, the reasons is lies in the greater transparency of market information in developed countries. Portfolio becomes more attractive when investors are faced by liquidity shortage.
Combines conclusions of bank institutions internationalization and business internationalization, summarizes geographical choice reference indicators of commercial bank internationalization form theory and practical experience. The factors that influence commercial bank internationalization include economic growth potential, cost, information, investors'liquidity and financial market conditions. Different factors have different influence on investment choice, when choosing investment areas, we should consider all the factors comprehensively and make reasonable investing choices in order to increase expected benefits.
Combined internationalization research conclusion, analyzed strategies that can be referred to by Chinese commercial banks internationalization,discussed the historical process, experience of Chinese commercial banks internationalization, and then use foreign international banks'experience for reference, we come to an conclusion that, Chinese commercial banks should be cautious on acquisition of foreign ones, In the process of institutions internationalization should be on the basis of new agencies.In the acquisition we should select a potential and fewer cultural and political conflict areas to prevent the failure of post acquisition integration.to enhance capacity of internationalization, I suggest to invest and expand businesses in developed countries, where financial center of business and investment shareholding banks are established. To lay the foundation for development by learning and to improve viability by customer following.
引文
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