摘要
气候变化问题已成为环境经济管理和资源、能源政策领域中的研究热点之一。应对气候变化则需要控制温室气体排放，然而控制温室气体排放的过程中经常会引发社会经济方面的损失。因此如何解决这两方面相互冲突的问题引发了广泛的关注。碳减排规制是限制温室气体排放的一个复杂的政策系统，涉及众多不同的形式的减排政策和规章。在我国经济转型的关键时期，碳减排规制的实施会面临更多的困难与挑战，也会对不同行业的经济产生不同的影响。如何辨识影响巨大的行业，确定帮扶行业及鞭策行业，如何协调平衡各个行业经济发展同二氧化碳排放之间的关系是中国目前协调行业发展，促进行业升级中急需要解决的问题。因此，本论文主要利用多目标规划模型分析碳减排规制下行业经济发展中行业生产成本的影响。主要取得以下几方面的创新性研究结果：
（1）我国碳减排的各种政策将会对宏观经济、行业经济及企业运营都会产生影响。对不同运营特点的行业及企业必然也会产生不同的效应。有些行业由于有政府碳减排政策的支持而发展壮大，有些行业由于政策的实施而普遍亏损。本论文基于对碳排放驱动因素及国内不同行业的碳排放量的分析基础上，以中观行业的视角，选择具有代表意义的电力行业及汽车行业为代表，测算碳减排政策下，行业生产的成本变动，为政府进一步制定行业政策提供理论依据。
（2）选择目标规划模型作为测度碳减排政策下行业生产成本变动的主要模型。并在基础目标规划测算行业生产成本模型中加入时间变量，将原有静态模型进行动态扩展，以期预测分析与实际情况更为相符。模型预测中国短期内至2015年，在现有碳减排规制目标下，行业生产成本的变动趋势。归纳出随经济的蓬勃发展，碳减排成本将会随之上升的特点。证明针对不同行业特色，应给予不同行业碳减排规制的必要性。
（3）针对不同行业特点，在原有目标规划分析模型中加入适用不同行业发展的减排约束。根据汽车行业特点将目标规划模型同行业增长极限约束相结合；根据电力行业特点，将严格减排目标同行业扩张相结合，进行行业减排成本灵敏度计算以增加行业间的可比性。并增加三种目标规划外影响因素对行业碳减排成本分析的定性分析。其中行业产品的替代性、技术水平均有促使行业碳减排成本减低的趋势，而要素价格的上涨有促使行业碳减排成本升高的趋势。
The issue of climate change has become one of the hotspot in the field ofenvironmental economic management, resources policy and energy policy. Humanbeing need to control the greenhouse gas emission to respond to climate change.However, the process of controlling greenhouse gas emissions often lead to the loss ofsocio-economic aspects. How to solve the conflict of these two aspects of the problemled to a widespread concern. The regulation of carbon reduction is a complex policysystem to limit greenhouse gas emissions. This system involves many different formsof emission reduction policies and regulations. The implementation of the carbonemission reduction regulation will face a lot of difficulties and challenges, and alsowill have different impacts on different economic sectors during the critical period inChina's economic transformation. There are a lot of urgent problems needed to besolved, like how to identify the most influenced industry to determine the aid industryand spur industry, how to coordinate and balance the economic development betweencarbon dioxide emissions on various China industry sectors. Therefore, this thesismainly analysis the industry economic development cost on carbon emissionreduction regulation with the multi-objective programming model. Obtain thefollowing aspects of innovative research results:
(1) China's carbon emissions reduction policies will have important impacts onmacroeconomic, industry economic and business operations. These policies will havedifferent effects on different industries and corporate which have different operatingcharacteristics. Based on carbon emissions reduction policies, some industries havedevelopment and expansion but some have widespread losses. After the analysis ofdriving factors on carbon emissions and the carbon emission amount in differentindustries, this thesis analysis the changes of industry production cost by carbonemission reduction policies in view of the industry's perspective. Choose the electricpower industry and the automotive industry as the represented industry and provide atheoretical basis for the government further development industry policy.
(2) Select the multi-objective programming model as the major method toanalysis the industry production costs changes by carbon emission reduction policies. The time variable is added to the original static model for estimation industryproduction cost. This dynamic expansion from the original static model could accordprediction analysis with the actual situation more consistently. The model predictsChina's short-term industry production costs trend till2015. This prediction is alsounder the regulation of existing carbon emission reduction goal. Summed up thecharacteristics that the carbon abatement costs would rise with the economy booming.Prove that based on the different carbon emission characteristics of differentindustries, governments should make different carbon reduction regulation to differentindustries.
(3) For the different industry characteristics, this thesis joined different industryreduction emission constraints to the original objective programming model.According to the characteristics of the automotive industry, the industry growthlimitation constraint is combined with the objective programming model. Accordingto the characteristics of the power industry, strict emission reduction target iscombined with the industry expansion constraint. Abatement cost sensitivitycalculations are made to increase the comparability between industries. Three kinds ofqualitative analysis are added to describe the influencing factors on the industry costof carbon emission reduction. The industry alternative products and technical levelimproving have the cost reduction trend on carbon emission reduction, but theessential factor prices have the trend of prompting industry carbon abatement costs.
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