摘要
信任对社会生活有着重要的意义,特别是对民主政治的实现和维持以及经济增长等发挥着关键的作用。本文对中国社会信任的一些基本问题——如在中国传统文化中,诚信始终是中国人道德体系的一种基本要素,但在具体的社会生活中,这种诚信的道德义务为何没有不分对象地适用于一切人?政府为什么不遵守事前的承诺而更多的是追求短期利益?为何身处诚信危机的中国依然能保持较高社会信任水平?——进行了系统的探讨。
首先,我们介绍了研究的背景,尤其重点介绍了当前中国各个领域中存在的诚信缺失的事实。然后,在对相关文献进行归纳总结的基础上,我们指出了本文的研究动因,并对要研究的主要内容进行了简要的说明。紧接着,在第二章,基于(社会)心理学、社会学以及经济学等不同学科的相关文献,我们对信任的各种不同的定义进行了必要的梳理,并对信任的本质和分类进行了必要的说明。在第三章,在讨论了因“机会主义”而导致的“囚徒困境”之后,通过建立正式的博弈模型,我们探讨了声誉机制发挥作用的必要条件,并对声誉理论进行了较为全面的综述。在第四章,我们探讨了中国传统社会的文化、政治及经济等对社会信任的影响。通过构建一个演化博弈模型,我们认为,传统中国“内外有别”的信任模式并不是社会和政治家选择或人为教化的结果,它更多的体现为人们通过有意识地不断学习而形成的一个“进化”过程。第五章则主要探讨了当前中国政府的诚信问题。我们认为,以经济增长为基础的晋升锦标赛对政府诚信有着最为关键的影响。由于晋升锦标赛将那些不容易测度的指标排除在考核体系之外,这导致了政府官员不遵守事前的承诺,采取短期行为。也就是说,政府官员更为关注短期的经济增长收益而忽视普通大众的利益诉求以及因环境污染和能源耗损所导致的未来成本。在第六章,我们探讨了当前中国的社会信任状况以及产生这种状况的原因。使用WVS第2-5次调查数据库中的中国大陆数据,我们探讨了中国社会普遍信任的决定因素,并对“中国信任之谜”给予一个明确的解释。研究发现：(1)中国的社会信任水平存在明显的代际差异；(2)教育水平的影响不仅显著而且比所有其他因素的边际效应都要大；(3)代表乐观主义的因素,即相信可以自由选择和掌控自己生活的信念对普遍信任有不可忽视的影响；(4)个人的主观感受,即对家庭经济状况的满意程度以及对政府和司法系统的信任,是社会信任的重要决定因素。其中,我们认为后三者是解释“中国信任之谜”的关键因素。
通过对中国信任问题的解读,要使中国的社会信任状况维持在较高的水平之上,我们提出了以下几点建议和意见：(1)通过放松对民间组织的监管并提供相应的资金支持等措施,建立政府与民间组织平行发展的模式；(2)以公平和正义为导向推动市场体制的建立；(3)以民主法治为目标深化政治体制改革。
Trust has great significance to social life, especially to the achievement and maintenance of democracy as well as economic growth. In Chinese traditional culture, honesty and creditability is a basic element of the moral system. However, there are still many problems that need to be explained. For example, why this moral obligation does not indiscriminately apply to all individuals in the real social life? Why the government officials often do not comply with prior commitments? Why China is still able to maintain a high level of social trust even if we are living in a Credit Crisis? In this dissertation, we try to provide answers for these fundamental issues about Chinese social trust.
Firstly, the dissertation introduces the researching background, especially the fact that the lack of honesty and creditability exist in all areas in China. Then, based on the review of existing related literature, we present the motivation and the main content of this dissertation. In chapter two, based on the literature of social psychology, sociology and economics, we sort out the definitions of trust in different disciplines, and illustrate the nature and classification of trust. In chapter three, after discussing the "prisoner's dilemma" which is the result of "opportunism", we explore the necessary condition that the reputation mechanisms can play a role through a game model, and give a comprehensive overview of the thoery of reputation. In chapter four, we discuss the traditional Chinese society's culture, politics and economy as well as its impact on social trust. By employing an evolutionary game model, we explain the trust pattern that people in China may mainly trust the person who have private relationship with themselves. The results imply that such a trust pattern in China is not determined by the choice of the society or the politicians. It results from the conscious learning process of the people in the social life. Chapter five investigates the honesty and creditability of the current China's local governments. We argue that promotion tournaments, as an incentive system governing Chinese local officials, have a critical impact on the honesty and creditability of the governments. Because of the promotion tournament, some indicators which are not easy to be measured is excluded out of the evaluation system. This lead the government officials not to comply with prior commitments and neglect the general public interest demands in order to seek the short-term interests. On the contrary, they are more concerned about the short-term economic growth even the society needs to pay an expensive cost for this growth in the future. Chapter six discusses the current situation of social trust in China and the reasons for this situation arising. By employing the data of WVS, this chapter investigates the determinants of general trust in China and explains "China's Trust Puzzle". The results imply that:(1) the general trust level in China has the obvious generation difference; (2) the education not only has important influence on trust but also shows the largest marginal effect among all factors; (3) the factors of optimism, which I believe free to choose and control own lives, show an effect on general trust that can not be ignored; (4) individual subjective feelings is an important determinant of general trust. Meanwhile, the dissertation also proves that the last three factors are the key points for explaining trust puzzle in China except the factor of social homogeneity.
After reading and explaining the issues of China's social trust through historical, cultural, economic, and political perspectives, in order to make China's social trust level to maintain a high level, we propose the following suggestion:(1) establishing a parallel development model of government and non-governmental organizations by deregulation and providing a corresponding financial support to non-governmental organizations; (2) promoting the establishment of a market system which is based on fairness and justice-oriented; (3) speeding up the political reform which the goal is democracy and the rule of law.
引文
①费孝通：《乡土中国》,北京：人民出版社,2008年版第42页.
②也正是因为这样,国内的学者普遍认为“文化大革命”批判或者否定了中国传统文化的很多合理内容与破坏甚至摧毁了中国原有的信任机制及其道德基础是当前中国诚信危机的根本原因。
③数据来源：林毅夫：《发展与转型：思潮、战略和自生能力》,北京：北京大学出版社,2008年.
①流行语录“10亿人民9亿商,还有1亿待开张”非常生动地揭示当时的经商热。这一口号尚有若干版本及衍生版本,比如“10亿人民9亿倒,还有1亿在寻找”,等等。
②当前,在其他的一些行业,比如在保险推销中,这种“杀熟”的现象也是普遍存在的。
①数据来源：国务院发展研究中心调查研究报告：《制假售假的总体形势及危害分析》,2003年6月12日,第89号(总1930号)。
②数据来源：杨玉凤、曹琼、吴晓明：《上市公司信息披露违规市场反应差异研究：2002-2006年的实证分析》.审计研究,2008年第5期第69-73页.
①“领导批示”最为著名的事件是,2003年国家总理温家宝走访三峡库区时为农家妇女熊德明追讨工钱。
①在2009年11月19日卫生部召开的加强医疗质量安全管理视频会议上，卫生部副部长马晓伟在会上指出,当前,医疗质量安全管理工作所面临的问题和形势依然严峻。从各地近期通报的几起医疗安全事件来看,相当数量发生在具有一定医疗水平的三级甲等医院。暴露出部分医疗机构、部分医务人员仍然对医疗安全缺乏足够的重视,医院管理松懈,存在较多的医疗安全隐患和薄弱环节。导致医疗事故的主要原因有技术上的问题,但更多的是医疗安全管理和责任心的问题。资料来源：卫生部新闻办公室,http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/httmlfiles/mohylflfwjgs/s3582/200911/44635.htm。
②据国家卫生部门统计,全国80%以上的医疗机构都不同程度地遭遇过“医闹”。在医疗纠纷发生后,有70%以上的医院发生过患者殴打、威胁、辱骂医务人员事件；60%的医院发生过患者死后家属在医院内摆花圈、拉横幅、设灵堂等情况。资料来源：熊金超、沈翀：《“右腿骨折,左腿动刀”伤了谁?》,新华网湖北频道新闻中心,2009年11月29日,http://www.hb.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2009-11/29/content_1836077 6.htm。
①袁剑：《拆迁中的政治经济学》,摘于《南方周末》,2009年12月3日。文章电子版网址：http.//www. infzm. com/content/38294。
①对信任定义的文献综述也可参见Bigley和Pearce(1998), Hosmer(1995)、Rousseau et al.,(1998)、 Korczynski(2000), O'Hara(2009)等。
①齐美尔：《货币哲学》,北京：华夏出版社,2002年,第178-179页。
①类似的表述可参见Korczynski (2000)、Dasgupta(2000, p.331)。
①声誉理论的详细讨论参见第3章。
②相关的文献综述可参见Salanie(1998)、Tirole(1999)。
③当然,这并不是说经济学不承认信任中不包括非理性因素,例如行为经济学就倾向于强调信任的非理性的情感因素。不过,更多的经济学家更多地倾向于把这些情感因素(如文化、价值观认同等)纳入到经济学主流的理性分析模式之中,如Akerlof和Kranton(2000)、Tabellini(2008)等。
①不过,对于西方学者的华人文化是一种低信任文化的这种观点,国内学者一般还是持否定态度。一些学者进行详细的论证,如彭泗清(1999)认为,Fukuyama从华人家族结构与企业模式出发来说明和支持华人社会低信任度的论点,但是他并没有提供一个详细严密的逻辑论证。张维迎(2003)则指出,从历史上看,中国社会有很高的信任度。如果信任水平低下,那我们无法解释中国为何是世界上最早使用纸币的国家,更难想象中国会发展为一个地大物博、历史悠久的国家。不过,由于其调查对象为在北京上学的大学生和在京工作的成人(年龄较轻且文化程度较高),彭泗清的论证显得说服力不足。其一,样本采集的方法并不属于真正意义上的随机抽样方法；其二,在“文化大革命”的巨大破坏和社会转型的迅速变化的前提下,用现代年轻人的决策和行为来说明传统文化的特征应该有待商榷。而张维迎的分析更多的是基于一种描述性的论述,并没有对其观点进行详细地论证。
③本小节部分内容引自夏澍耘：“中国古代诚信源流考”,《光明日报》,2002年4月10日。
①毛泽东：“中国革命和中国共产党”,《毛泽东选集》第2卷,人民出版社,1969,第586-587页。
①马克思：《马克思恩格斯选集》第一卷,第639页,人民出版社,1972年。
②梁漱溟：《中国文化要义》,第79-80页,学林出版社,1987。
①霍布斯：《利维坦》,北京：商务印书馆,1985年版,第95页.
①卢梭：《社会契约论》,北京：商务印书馆,1980年版,第23页.
②卢梭：《社会契约论》,北京：商务印书馆,1980年版,第23-25页.
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①根据民政部的《2007年民政事业发展统计公报》统计,截至2007年底,全国共有各类民间组织38.1万个,其中社团20.7万个、民办非企业单位17.2万个、基金会1369个。资料来源：http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2008-01/24/content_867561.htm
②作为一个典型的例子,我们看看中国消费者协会所发挥的作用就会有清晰的认识。
③温家宝：《2005年国务院政府工作报告》。资料来源：http://www.gov.cn/test/2006-02/16/content_201218.htm
①约翰·罗尔斯：《正义论》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,1988年第92页.
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