摘要
近年来,随着我国经济的快速发展,我国能源需求不断增长,对能源进口的依赖性也越来越大。从1990年开始,我国能源消费总量开始大于生产总量,进口量大幅度上升。1990年到2000年的十年间,我国能源生产与消费缺口由1914万吨标准煤上升到19000万吨标准煤,能源进口从1310万吨标准煤扩大到14331万吨标准煤。1993年以后,我国从石油出口国变为石油净进口国,石油的对外依存度由1995年的7.6%上升到2003年的36.1%。能源供求矛盾的日益突出,导致我国能源安全形势十分严峻,这不仅制约着我国的长期发展,还在一定程度上影响了我国的国际关系。
云南省水能资源具有规模大、可开发量大及开发条件优越等优势。全省人均拥有可开发水电装机容量为全国人均拥有量的5.8倍,人均拥有水电发电量为全国的6.3倍。云南省是我国西部地区最具水电开发潜力的省份,为此云南省提出了把电力产业培育成为支柱产业的构想。全省可开发的水电资源82%以上集中在澜沧江、怒江和金沙江三江干流上,其中怒江干流占三分之一以上。
怒江州是我国典型的少数民族聚居区,受自然和地理等因素的制约,建国六十年至今,一直没有形成能够支撑经济社会正常运行的产业体系。怒江州的贫困程度和贫困面在云南乃至全国都高居榜首,主要依靠国家财政补贴过日子,加快发展、摆脱贫困是怒江州各族人民最迫切的要求。怒江州具有丰富的自然资源,但境内大部分地区都被纳入自然保护的范围,可供开发利用的自然资源十分有限,水电开发是目前实现怒江州经济社会发展的一条捷径。
怒江水电开发,是云南“三江”水电开发的重要组成部分,是云南省贯彻国家西部大开发战略方针,建设水电能源基地,保障国家能源安全的重要环节,也是促进边疆民族地区经济发展和社会和谐进步的重要内容。怒江州的水能资源开发,对云南省实现全面开发水电资源的战略目标,具有十分重大的意义。党中央、国务院和云南省委、省政府对怒江水电开发高度重视,云南省政府已将该项工作列入20个重大项目当中。如何把握时机,应对未来,求得怒江流域水电快速健康发展,最大化地利用怒江丰富的水能资源,更好地促进怒江流域经济社会发展,是怒江水电开发需要迫切解决的问题。
本文在借鉴区位理论、比较优势理论、水电开发的效益理论等理论的基础之上,首先分析了怒江州经济社会发展的现状,然后运用PEST分析方法,全面深入地分析了怒江州水电产业发展所处宏观环境的各个层面,最后针对怒江州水电开发所面临的各种困难和问题提出了一些解决措施,为怒江州水电产业探索了一条切实可行的发展道路。
With the rapid economic development of China, our energy demand has remained growing recently. China becomes more and more dependent on the energy imports. China's total energy consumption has surpassed its total energy production since 1990 and its energy import has showed an upward trend. From 1990 to 2000, the gap between China's energy production and consumption increased from 19.14 million to 190 million tons of standard coal and the energy import volume increased from 13.1 million to 143.31 million tons of standard coal. China has changed from oil export country to oil import country since 1993. Ratio of foreign oil dependence increased from 7.6% in 1995 to 36.1% in 2003. Contradiction between energy supply and demand becomes more and more serious. As a result, China's energy security is facing great challenges, which not only restricts long-term development of China but to a certain extent affects China's international relations.
The hydropower resource in Yunnan has superior development conditions and can be developed in a large quantity. The per capita installed capacity of hydropower station in Yunnan province is 5.8 times the national average and the per capita energy output hydropower is 6.3 times the national average. Yunnan is the most promising province with the potential to develop hydropower in western China. Yunnan puts forward that the hydropower should be developed into a pillar industry.82% of hydropower resources in Yunnan centers at the Lancang River, the Nujiang River and Jinsha River, of which more than one third of hydropower resources lying in the Nujiang River.
Nujiang State is a typical region inhabited by ethnic minority. Restricted by natural and geographical factors, there has not been an industrial system to support the development of its economy and society since sixty years ago. The poverty level and rate of Nujiang State top the list in Yunnan and even in China. The people there have to rely on the national financial subsidies. It is urgent for people in Nujiang State to promote economic development and get rid of poverty. Nujiang State has rich natural resources, however, most of the territory of Nujiang State has been listed in natural reserves so that natural resources that can be developed are rather limited. Hydropower development is a shortcut to improve the economic and social development of Nujiang State.
Hydropower development of Nujiang River plays a critical role in Yunnan "Three River"(the Lancang River, the Nujiang River and the Jinsha River) hydropower development, western development strategy, building hydropower base, ensuring national energy security, and promoting economic development and social harmony of border area of China. Hydropower development of Nujiang River is quite important for the comprehensive development of the hydropower resources in Yunnan. The CPC Central Committee, the State Council, Yunnan provincial committee and Yunnan provincial government attach great importance to Nujiang River hydropower development. And Yunnan provincial government has listed Nujiang River hydropower development in the 20 major projects of Yunnan province. It is critical and urgent to make full use of abundant hydropower resources in Nujiang River and promote the hydropower development so as to promote the economic and social development in Nujiang River.
This reference location in the theory of comparative advantage theory, the leading industry based on the theory theory, first analyzed the economic and social development Nujiang status, then the use of PEST analysis, in-depth analysis of the Nu River hydropower industry in which macro-state the environment at all levels, the final state for the Nu River Hydropower Development face various difficulties and problems proposed some measures for the Nu River hydropower industry to explore the state a viable development path.
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