摘要
改革开放以来,中国农村特别是粮食主产区农业劳动力转向非农产业就业,在促进农民收入较快增长的同时,也引起了社会各界对农业生产和粮食安全的广泛担忧,因观察问题的角度、研究方法和数据来源的不同,不同学者对此问题的研究结论存在很大差异。
本文基于农村住户调查数据,考察了非农就业对粮食主产区农户农业各部门产出、要素投入需求和生产经营效率的影响,并具体研究了非农就业影响农户粮食生产和不同来源收入的作用机制和实现条件。
与多数研究将非农就业视为农业生产的外生变量,再使用工具变量等方法减缓因决策同步性造成的模型内生性的思路不同,本文直接选择能够体现决策同步性的统计模型,从根本上解决了内生性造成的模型估计结果偏误。首先,通过构建一个包括非农就业、粮食作物、经济作物和养殖业4种产出,且考虑到农户普遍存在的较低生产技术效率的一致性广义里昂惕夫随机距离函数,深入分析了非农就业对农户农业各部门产出、投入要素需求和经营效率的影响；其次,通过构建一个考虑到非农就业与粮食生产决策同步性的联立方程模型,探讨了农户非农就业和粮食生产的相互作用机制；最后,基于分别以农户种植业、农业和家庭生产性活动纯收入为因变量的统计模型,并结合对不同模型结果的比较分析,讨论了非农就业影响农户不同来源纯收入的机制和实现条件。
研究结果表明,非农就业是粮食主产区农户收入较快增长的重要渠道,并促进了农业各部门产出的增加和生产要素的充分利用,特别是有利于粮食生产稳定发展,但却不利于农户农业和种植业收入增长,而非农就业导致的生产性固定资产和土地需求减少,意味着长期看非农就业程度较高的农户将倾向于脱离农业生产。具体为：成本互补性的存在及农业产出和投入结构因应非农就业增加的相应调整,使非农产出扩张既利于农户农业各部门产出特别是粮食产出和生产性经营支出增加,也利于生产技术效率提高,但减少了农户土地和生产性固定资产的投入需求；在因土地流转市场不健全难以或不愿转出土地的条件下,为释放更多劳动力参加非农就业,农户扩大了劳动力节约型作物粮食的种植面积,非农收入不仅通过促使投入增加稳定了粮食亩产水平,也通过对粮食生产亏损的间接补贴稳定了农户从事粮食生产的积极性；非农就业制约了农户种植业和农业收入增长,但促进了农户生产性活动收入的较快增长；农业兼业户的可能分化将促使适度规模经营纯农户和非农兼业户的较快成长。
基于上述研究结论,本文引出了相应的政策含义,为制定促进粮食主产区农业和粮食生产稳定发展以及农民增收的政策措施提供参考。
Since the policy of Reform and Opening-up, the continuous transfer of Chinese agricultural labor force into non-agricultural industries, especially in main grain producing areas, has brought widespread concern about agricultural production and food security, as it sustainably promotes the growth of rural resident income. More scholars, as a result, pay close attention to the influence of rural residents' non-farm employment on agriculture and food production. However, different scholars bring discrepant conclusions due to different perspectives as well as distinct research methods, data resources and data quality.
Taking the rural household as an analysis unit and based on rural household of Survey on Henan Rural Residents and Survey on Henan Migrant Worker Monitor, this thesis, from the micro level and in the context of the increasing growth of non-agricultural employment, mostly investigates how the various agricultural output, the productive factor input and the management efficiency have changed, what has happened concerning the food production of rural households, and how their different levels' net income has changed in close relation to the former two questions.
Different form the past researches which regard non-farm employment as an exogenous variable, and then employ the instrumental variable to eliminate or slow down the endogenous problem brought from the correlation of non-farm employment and agricultural production, this thesis has already considered both their interaction and fundamentally solves this problem when choosing the form of statistical measurement model. First of all, based on the data of Survey on Henan Rural Residents and Survey on Henan Migrant Worker Monitor, this thesis have constructed a Stochastic Distance Function of Consistent General Leontief input and output in terms of lower production efficiency of rural residents, and has estimated their production technology parameter. Based on these, it has also calculated the joint output elasticity, scale reward index and the non-farm employment's demand elasticity for various production factors, and deeply analyzed the influence of non-farm employment on rural households' various agricultural outputs and the demand for various production factors. Secondly, this thesis has discussed the mechanism of how non-farm employment influences food production by respectively taking non-farm employment, grain planting area and average acre output as the dependant variable to construct simultaneous equations models. Lastly, this thesis has also discussed different types of rural households based on the degree of participating in non-farm employment, the influence of the increased working time on the net income of different levels and its ways of realization.
The above research reveals that the non-farm employment in major grain producing areas has been the important channel of rural household income growth, and not yet negatively affected various agricultural outputs, and has contrarily improved the full use of agricultural productive factors, especially the steady development of food production, but it goes against increasing the net income of agriculture and plantation. In addition, it shows that the increase of non-farm employment enables rural households to tend to reduce the long-term investment on agriculture and even break away from it. Specific results are,as follows:First,the non-farm output increase is in favor of various agricultural outputs, especially of food output and management efficiency due to the strongly complementary cost with various agricultural outputs, but it makes farmers reduce the need of land and productive expenses spent on agriculture. Second, the increased time of non-farm employment not only encourages farmers to expand grain planting areas, but it also maintains the steady average food output per acre and enables food production to develop sustainably and steadily. In addition, the expansion of food planting areas offers farmers more non-farm employment time. Three, non-farm employment in major grain production areas is a major way of increasing their income steadily and quickly but is not beneficial to the net income growth of agriculture and plantation. Last, both rural households'productive activities and food production are in the stage of increasing returns to scale, and farmers' food production income is negative.
Based on the above research conclusions, this thesis draws several policy implications, offering reference to steadily develop agriculture and food production and consistently increase farmers'income.
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