摘要
1968年,美国经济学家维克托·富克斯在其著作《服务经济学》中宣布,美国在西方国家中率先进入“服务经济”社会,标志是其中一半以上的就业人口不再从事食品、服装、住房、汽车和其他有形产品的生产。他认为美国表现出的从工业经济向服务经济的转变,同始于英国的从农业经济向工业经济的转变一样,具有革命的性质。中国社会科学院财贸所自2003年以来每年出版一部服务业发展报告,2012年3月1日发布了2011年度服务业发展报告,其主题是《面向“十二五”的中国服务业》,报告指出：到2015年,服务业对我国国民经济增长、对劳动就业、对消费支出的贡献都将是最大的。基于这样的判断,上述报告提出了在“十二五”期末,中国将迎来“服务经济时代”的重要结论。这同样是我国经济社会发展的一个重要“拐点”,意味着我国经济服务化全面提速,服务业将成为经济发展、产业升级和改善民生福利的“主力军”。
基于上述背景,本文从服务经济发展的一个侧面入手,选取了“区域性中心城市服务经济发展”这一主题,并基于东北地区、环渤海经济圈乃至东北亚地区经济中心城市的大连进行研究分析,在运用产业经济理论、区域发展理论、服务经济理论的基础上,认真总结、归纳和疏理国内外关于服务经济发展的相关研究成果,进而在我国及中心城市服务经济发展方面,提出比较切实可行的合理化建议。亦即本文试图在“服务经济”领域,在解决相关理论研究和现实实践发展的一些问题上,发挥出一定的探索性和建设性作用。
具体而言,本文的核心内容主要包括三个方面：
第一,对古今中外侧重城市的服务经济理论进行了研究综述。一是在分析服务经济思想渊源方面,包含了古典主义关于服务业的争论和马克思主义经济学关于服务的观点。前者从威廉·配第认为服务业是创造财富的认识开始分析,涵盖了魁奈、亚当·斯密、萨伊、约翰·斯图亚特·穆勒等在这一领域的探索；后者把马克思理论从古典主义中独立出来进行分析,这是基于其理论的结构宏大、视角独特和分析缜密。二是从产业结构演进与服务业发展的关系方面,包含了配第·克拉克定理：劳动力产业转移理论、钱纳里的均衡增长与结构转变理论、罗斯托的经济发展阶段论、贝尔的“后工业社会”理论和乔纳森·格沙尼的新工业主义理论。在上述各种经济结构变动理论中虽然不是从服务经济的视角来展开分析和研究,但其中都对服务业及服务经济相关因素给予高度重视。三是服务业革命论和服务业主导产业论的研究,分析了服务业革命对工业经济的影响、说明工业化进程中主导产业的演进规律,并明确提出服务业发展的阶段及如何成为主导产业。
对于国内理论界对服务经济发展有关研究的综述包含服务和区域经济、城市经济；服务业的创新和产业发展；服务业和经济增长、生产效率；服务经济的竞争力等内容。最后对国内外有关服务业和服务经济的文献进行了概括性的总结和评价。第一方面内容的作用是为下面展开的主题研究奠定相应的理论基础。
第二,对服务经济发展进行了两个层面的实证分析。一是服务经济发展的中外比较研究,包括美国、日本、新加坡及香港的发展历程和经验,概括出其中的共性特征：服务经济在整体经济中逐渐取得主导地位；服务经济内部结构体现出新经济特征；全球范围内服务贸易发展加快等。接着对我国与发达国家服务经济发展的对比分析中指出不足、分析落后的原因及对整体社会经济发展的制约。二是从区域中心城市服务经济的角度展开研究,分析了现代经济中心城市一定是服务业高度发达城市的规律性特征,并对我国一些区域性中心城市服务业发展进行研究,以此为论文进入大连市服务经济发展研究部分提供前提和准备条件。
第三,是本论文研究的落脚点：即区域性中心城市服务经济发展的大连案例研究。首先分析了大连在我国区域经济发展中的地位,即东北地区、环渤海经济圈乃至东北亚地区的区域性中心城市的定位,从观察其服务经济发展的纵向视角(即大连自身产业结构演进历程)、其服务经济发展的水平视角(即区域间、城市间服务经济竞争)展开研究分析,从而指出大连服务经济发展的特征和存在的问题。在此基础上提出大连市加快服务经济发展的政策建议,包括对其服务经济发展的国内外环境背景的分析、服务经济发展的战略思路(包括指导思想、战略原则)和总体目标,指出大连服务经济发展的战略重点(包括航运物流业、金融业、软件和服务外包产业、科技服务业、文化创意产业、商务会展业、现代商贸业、旅游业等),大连现代服务业的空间布局及重点项目,最后是加快大连市服务经济发展的主要政策。
本文在研究方法上主要体现了四个方面的特点：
一是实证分析与规范分析相结合。在经典综述及理论研究的基础上,对我国服务业及区域中心城市服务业发展的现状进行实证分析,并对下一步如何促进我国服务经济发展进行规范分析。
二是案例分析与一般分析相结合。总结发达国家和地区、城市服务经济发展中的成功经验,进行案例分析；同时还试图从案例中寻找规律,进行一般理论分析,研究区域中心城市服务经济的基本规律。
三是定性分析与定量分析相结合。在定性分析的基础上,对大连市产业机构优化升级的过程,试图运用计量经济模型等进行了一定的定量分析。
四是静态分析与动态分析相结合。服务经济发展是一个动态演进的过程。对进行截面的静态关系分析,还要从空间维度、时间维度、内部构成三方面进行动态分析,以更好地把握产业结构高级化及服务经济发展的过程及趋势。
从总体上看,本论文的主要创新之处或具有创新元素的方面主要有：
第一,对城市服务经济研究的综述方面,上溯时间进一步提前,介绍从古典主义关于服务业的争论开始,大概描述了十八世纪以来服务业经济理论学说的发展脉络,试图通过具有里程碑或分水岭意义的文献介绍,来为勾画出服务业经济思想历史演进脉络的努力做些微贡献。
第二,我国服务经济发展中,区域服务业竞争问题已引起理论界和实际部门的重视,并进行了一定程度的研究和实践,但这主要限于针对具体领域或具体服务业而言,缺少从区域中心城市服务经济竞争与合作层面的抽象和概括,本文试图对大连市及相关城市之间进行比较分析而弥补上述有些方面的不足。
第三,对大连市服务业“十二五”发展指标提出质疑：《大连市服务业发展“十二五”规划》提出,服务业占GDP比重从2010年的42%提高到48%,本文认为这对大连市区域性中心城市作用和功能的发挥产生严重的负面影响,从而在区域城市之间的竞争中逐渐丧失比较优势。
第四,首次明确提出大连在建设东北亚国际航运中心、东北亚国际物流中心和东北地区金融中心的过程中,要特别注意强化城市的贸易和服务功能,通过贸易中心建设来推动和促进航运、物流和金融中心的发展。并指出大连建设贸易中心要努力做到期货贸易与现货贸易相结合、商品贸易与服务贸易相结合、零售市场与批发贸易相结合、商业与会展和旅游等相关产业相结合、各类贸易活动汇集和贸易服务体系建设相结合、大连贸易功能强化与周边城市商贸业发展相结合
In1968, American economist, Victor R. Fuchs declared in his work, Service Economics, that the United States took the lead entering "Service Economy" among the western countries, marked by the fact that more than half of its employment would no longer engage in the manufacture of food, clothing, housing, automobiles and other tangible products. He believed that just like British transformation from Agricultural Economy to Industrial Economy, the nation's transformation from Industrial Economy to Service Economy also has revolutionary nature. The Finance Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has published the report about Service Industry every year since2003and delivered the2011annual report on March1,2012, the theme of which was Chinese Service Industry Facing the12th Five-Year-Plan. The report indicated that the Service Industry will make the greatest contribution to our national economy growth, employment and consumption expenses by the end of2015. On the basis of the judgement, the above report put forward an important conclusion that China will welcome "Service Economy Times" by the end of the12th Five-Year-Plan. It is also a key inflexion of our economic and social development, which means that our service-orientated economy will speed up completely and be the "main force" of economic development, industry upgrading, and welfare improvement.
On the basis of background mentioned above, this thesis, approaching from a side view of Service Economy development, chooses the theme, the Service Economy Development in Regional Hub City, and carries out research and analysis of Northeast area, Bohai Economic Rim and even Dalian, the Northeast Asia Hub city. Based on the Industrial Economy Theory, Regional Development Theory and Service Economy Theory, it summaries, concludes and sorts out relevant domestic and foreign achievements, then puts forward practical and reasonable suggestion in terms of Service Economy development in hub cities. That is, in the field of Service Economy, play an exploratory and constructive role in solving relevant theoretical research and practice development.
In particular, there are three aspects of the main content: firstly, review of Service Economy theory of cities at all times and in all countries. One is in terms of analysis of the origin of Service Economy thought, which includes classicalism controversy about Service Industry and Marxist Economy about service. The former, starting from analysis of William Petty's view, Service created Wealth, covers the explorations of Kunet, Adam. Smith, Saey, John Stuyat, Muller in this field; while the latter, separating the Marxism from Classicalism, was based on its grand structure, unique perspective and meticulous analysis. Two is in terms of the relation between industrial structure evolution and service industry development, which contains Petty-Clark Theorem, namely Labor Industry Transfer Theory; Hollis B. Chenery's Balanced Growth Theory and Structure Transfer Theory; Rostow's Stage Theory of Development Model; Daniel Bell's Theory of the Post-industrial Society, and JonathanGershu-ny's Theory of New Industrialism. Although these theories mentioned above didn't analyze and investigate from the view of Service Economy, they all attached importance to the Service Industry and relevant factors. Three is in terms of investigations of Service Revolution Theory and Leading Industry Theory, which analyses the effect on the Industrial Economy caused by Service Revolution, indicates development rule of the Leading Industry in the process of industrialization, and puts forward phases of Service Industry Development and how to be a leading industry.
As for the summary of the development of Service Economy in domestic theory circles, it consists of service and Regional Economy, Urban Economy; creation and development of Service Economy; Service Industry, economic growth and productivity; the competitiveness of Service Economy, etc. Finally make a summary and assessment on the documents about Service Industry and Service Economy. The function of the first part is to lay theoretical foundation for the theme.
Secondly, carry on empirical analysis on the Service Economy development from two levels. Number one is about the comparative study of Service Industry development in China and foreign countries. It introduces the development and experience of America, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong then concludes their common features:Service Industry is gaining its leading position in the whole economy; its internal structure embodies the feature of New Economy; Service Trade speeds up in the world, etc. Meanwhile through comparative analysis on the development of Service Economy between China and developed countries, points out our shortages, analyses the reason why we fell behind and indicates its restriction on the development of the whole society. Number two, from the angle of Service Economy of Regional Hub City, analyses the regular characteristics that it is the modern economic hub city that is highly developed in Service Economy then carries out research on the development of Service Industry in some regional hub cities, which offers premise and preparation for the part of study on Service Economy development in Dalian.
Thirdly, it is the foothold of this thesis, the case study of Service Economy development in Dalian. At first, analyze the position of Dalian in Chinese Regional Economy development, namely the location of the regional hub city in Northeast, Bohai Economic Rim even the Northeast Asia area. Starting with the research on Vertical Visual-angle of Service Economy development (Industrial structure evolution course in Dalian) and its horizontal-angle (Service Economy competition among the regions and cities), point out the features of Service Economy development in Dalian and its problems, then put forward policy suggestion to accelerate Service Economy development in Dalian, including background analysis of Service Economy development at home and abroad, strategic thinking (guiding theory, strategic rules) and its overall target. Meanwhile, the thesis also indicates strategic focus on shipping logistics industry, finance industry, software and outsourcing industry, business exhibition industry, modern business industry and tourism industry, etc. and addresses the spatial arrangement and key projects of Dalian Modern Service Industry. Finally, present main policies to accelerate Service Economy development in Dalian.
The thesis mainly reflects four features in terms of research methodology:
The first is the combination of Empirical Analysis and Normative Analysis. On the basis of classical summary and theoretical research, the thesis conducts Empirical Analysis of current situation of Chinese Service Industry and the development of Regional Hub city, and then carries out Normative Analysis on how to improve the development of Chinese Service Economy.
The second is combination of the Case Study and General Analysis. By means of case study sum up successful experience of Service Economy in developed countries and cities; try to figure out rules from the case, and then carry out General Analysis to study the basic rules of Service Economy of Regional Hub city.
The third is combination of the Quantitative and Qualitative analysis. Based on the qualitative analysis, conduct Quantitative Analysis on the process of industrial structure upgrading in Dalian with econometric model.
The fourth is combination of the static and dynamic analysis. The development of Service Economy is a dynamic evolution process. Besides the sectional static analysis, it also needs dynamic analysis from spatial dimension, time dimension and internal structure to better control the process and tendency of industrial structure upgrading and the Service Economy development.
In general, the ingenuity of this thesis mainly contains:
Firstly, in terms of the review of research on City Service Economy, the tracing time was brought forward. Starting with the Classicalism controversy over Service Industry, the introduction part describes the development of Economy theories since the18th century and tries to make some contribution to outline thinking development of the Service Economy by means of those milestone documents.
Secondly, in the process of development of domestic Service Economy, the theorists and related departments have attached importance to the competitive issues among regional Service Industries, but only confined to some fields and lacked abstract and summary at the level of Service Economy competiveness and cooperation among regional hub cities. Thus, the thesis tries to analyze and compare Dalian with other relevant cities to cover those shortages.
Thirdly, raise doubts about the targets mentioned in "the12th five-year-plan of Dalian Service Industry". The plan indicated that Service Industry proportion in GDP will increase by6%from2010, from42%to48%.The thesis believes it will cause negative effect on the function of Dalian as a regional hub city, even lose its comparative advantage among the regional cities'competition.
Fourthly, it is the first to put forward that Dalian, in the building of Northeast Asia International Transportation center, Northeast Asia International Logistics Center and Northeast Financial Center, should strengthen its trade and service function and promote the development of shipping, logistics and financial center. It also indicates that to build up a trading center, Dalian should make its effort to integrate stocking trade with spot trade, commodity trade with service trade, retail trade with wholesale trade, business with exhibition or tourism, all kinds of trade with the construction of trading service system and the intensification of trading function with the business development of nearby cities.
引文
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