摘要
粮食作为一种基础产品,其价格的波动和市场运行关系到整个国民经济的健康发展,关系到生产者和消费者的切身利益,粮食价格的调控问题更是国民经济大局的关键。有效把握影响粮食价格波动的各种因素,建立相关模型分析和预测粮食市场价格变化,根据模型结果来调控价格并制定有效措施,不仅是促进农业生产发展、增加农户收入的迫切要求,对于引导粮食市场健康运行、保障粮食产品供求平衡也具有十分重要的意义。
本文首先对相关国内外文献进行了综述和分析,明确当前对粮食价格研究的已有成果与欠缺；针对国内外研究的不足,从粮食的商品属性、政策属性和金融属性三个方面分别阐述了影响粮食价格的各因素对粮价波动的影响。从粮食的商品属性来看,人口数量、居民收入与消费结构、粮食产量、粮食生产成本以及农户的收益情况这一系列因素均对粮食的供需产生较大的影响,从而导致粮食价格的波动。从粮食的政策属性来看,分述了政府的粮食收购价格、农业资金支出与科技进步情况、消费物价总水平和国家的粮食专储机制在粮价稳定方面所起到的作用,指明了各因素对于粮食价格不同方向的影响。从粮食的金融属性来看,全球经济状况影响着世界人民整体的收入水平,由此导致大众的消费需求以及食品价格的变动,最终使得粮食价格也随之波动；国际粮食价格和能源价格都是通过传导机制同步带动了国内粮食价格的波动：人民币汇率则由于粮食在国际市场上进行交易,对粮食的进出口价格造成影响进而波及到国内的粮食价格。并就这三个属性对应的影响因素构建模型来定量地刻划粮食价格与各因素之间的关系,对各模型结果进行实际分析并作出相应的调控建议；最后以模型所得的价格模拟数据为基础,构建了综合模型来预测未来的粮食价格的运行态势。
本论文主要研究的是粮食价格的波动因素及相应的预测问题,论文共分为九大部分：第一部分是引言。阐述了论文选题的背景、目的和意义；分析了国内外就相关问题所做的研究及文献综述；指明了本文所用的主要方法在该领域里学者所进行的应用程度；并给出论文的主要内容、研究方法和技术路线。第二部分是关于我国粮食价格机制和价格体系的基本理论。对粮食、粮食价格等概念进行了界定；叙述了市场经济条件下的粮食价格体系；综述了我国粮食价格机制演变的历史轨迹：阐明了粮食价格波动的内涵与特征；介绍了粮食价格波动的理论基础；为后续章节奠定理论基础。第三部分是关于粮食价格波动态势分析。分析了改革开放以来我国的粮食价格波动态势；比较分析了粮食成本与粮食价格；对全球粮食价格波动背景下我国的粮食价格的运行、走势及政策进行了剖析；为粮食价格影响因素模型的建立起到了铺垫作用。第四部分是粮食价格的影响因素分析。从粮食的商品属性、政策属性、金融属性三个方面分别对粮食价格的影响因素进行了全面考察；各因素综合讨论的研究结果表明,粮食价格受到众多因素影响,只是影响的渠道或方式不尽相同,粮食价格的反复变动是这些因素共同作用的结果。本部分的研究为影响因素建模提供了指导作用。第五部分是国内供需框架下粮食价格的局部均衡模型。通过对生产者利润、生产要素、居民收入与消费支出,以及市场均衡情况等进行分析,得到供需平衡下的利润函数方程、要素供应方程、收入与消费方程以及均衡条件方程,由此构成了影响因素方程组,并通过数据的模拟及测算,获得粮食价格的局部均衡模型,对模型结果进行了分析并给出了相应的调控措施与建议；由此获得商品属性下粮食价格的第一组拟合数据。第六部分是政策属性下粮食价格的模糊回归模型。阐明了模糊数据回归的具体过程和方法；并在此基础上进行了基于模糊理论的粮食价格的模糊回归建模与分析；由此获得政策属性下粮食价格的第二组拟合数据。第七部分是金融属性下粮食价格的时间序列分析模型。以全球经济状况、国际粮食价格、能源价格和人民币汇率四项指标作为输入变量,国内粮食价格作为输出变量,采用两种不同方案拟合数据,一是建立变量间的多元动态回归模型；二是根据变量间存在协整关系,构建了变量间的长期均衡方程,作为对协整回归模型的补充,建立了输入输出变量间的误差修正模型,对模型结果进行了分析并给出了相应的调控措施与建议；以这两个模型分别拟合数据得到粮食价格的时间序列拟合值,由此获得金融属性下粮食价格的第三组拟合数据。第八部分是我国粮食价格影响因素的模糊数据时间序列综合模型与预测。首先对粮食价格与各影响因素间的关系进行了因果检验,结果表明各因素与粮食价格之间大多存在着一定的因果关系；因此接下来利用模糊数据时间序列的算法与流程对前面得到的价格拟合数据进行预测和分析,以此来量化和分析粮食价格的总体变化趋势。通过与真实值和拟合值的对比,结果表明,拟合值、预测值与真实值在历年所处价格状态上基本保持一致,这说明拟合与预测精度都很高,证明了此种预测方法以及前述的建模方法对粮食价格波动问题的有效性。第九部分是结论和讨论。对整篇论文进行总结与归纳,指出创新与不足。
通过建立模型,本论文对影响粮食价格的各个影响因素进行了比较全面的讨论。通过讨论我们看到：在诸粮食价格影响因素中,粮食的需求量、政府收购价格、物价水平、粮食储备粮、国际粮食价格和能源价格与粮价呈正相关状态；而粮食供给量、农业科技投入、全球经济状况以及人民币汇率与粮价为负相关。粮食价格的影响因素之间的关系也是错综复杂的,鉴于以多种不同模型相结合进行综合预测所得到的价格分析及预测结果会更加可靠,本论文通过综合模型对粮价的变化进行了模拟,模拟结果显示,在模型的范畴内,今明两年的粮食价格是大体稳定的,新一轮的粮食价格上涨预期将于2015年到来。该结果对于政府实施调控策略能够起到一定的指导性作用。
本论文有以下三个创新点：第一,以一种新视角、新方法来研究我国粮食价格与其影响因素间的关系。将所有影响因素划分为商品属性、政策属性和金融属性三个大类,针对每类的影响因素与粮食价格的关系,选择不同数学手段进行了建模,并通过模型对该属性下粮食价格的走势进行了模拟；第二,建立了粮食价格的大规模综合模型。粮食的商品、政策和金融三个属性在以往的研究中仅仅是一种定性的说明,本文在将各种影响因素归类,逐一建立三个子模型的基础上,利用模糊数据时间序列综合模型对粮食价格进行整体研究；第三,大规模引入模糊数学方法进行建模。粮食价格领域很多概念具有模糊特征,以往的文献中对于模糊方法仅仅是定性地偶尔提及,本文将模糊回归和模糊数据时间序列的方法定量地引入到粮食价格的分析之中,为该领域的定量化研究提出了一种新的方法。
综上所述,笔者希望通过本文的研究,可以为政府及相关部门制定相关宏观经济政策,为农业生产者提供生产决策,为其他同类课题的研究提供一定的借鉴、参考和帮助等作用。
As a basic product, The fluctuation and market operation of food prices related to the healthy development of the entire national economy, and the interests of producers and consumers. regulation of food prices was the key to the whole situation of national economy. Effectively grasping the various factors affecting the food prices, establishing models to analyze, predicting price changes of the grain market, and developing effective measures to control prices according to the results of the model was not only to promote the development of agricultural production, increase the urgent requirement of farmer income, but also to guide the healthy operation of the grain market and protect equilibrium of the food supply and demand.
This paper had carried out a general description and the analysis to the all kinds of article around the domestic and abroad. It had already made clearly achievement and shortcoming in studying currently. Especially to the deficiency studying at homeland and abroad, examined the influence from the commodity attribute, policy attribute and finance attribute of grain. Judging from the commodity attribute, population quantity, the income of resident and consumption structure, grain yield, grain cost of production and household income all had an effect on the supply and demand of food. Judging from the grain policy attribute, grain purchase price, agricultural expenditure of funds, the progress of science and technology, the overall level of consumer prices and food deposit mechanism play a role in stabilizing grain prices.This paper pointed out the effects of various factors on the food prices. Judging from the grain finance attribute, the state of the global economy, international food prices,energy prices and RMB rate would all affect the domestic grain prices. Furthermore we had expressed this relationship through the model, analysas and given suggestions for regulating.At last, The establishment of a comprehensive model predict the future price of grain on the basis of above.
This paper mainly focused on the influencing factor of grain prices and corresponding prediction. It was divided into nine parts:Part I was a foreword, Which Introduced the background, purpose and significance, the literature review, the main contents, research methods and technical route. Part II was about the Formation mechanism of food prices and fundamental theory in China, Which Defined the concept of grain, grain prices, narrated the grain price system under the market economy, expounded the connotation,characteristics and theoretical basis of grain price fluctuation, established a rationale for following chapters and sections. Part Ⅲ was the analysis of fluctuations trends of food prices in China. Which had an analysis of the situation of China's grain price fluctuation since the reform and opening up,and of the operation, trends and policy of food prices in China under the background of global food prices fluctuations In order to pave the way for the following chapters. Part IV is about the analysis of influence factors of food prices. Which studied the food prices from the commodity attribute, policy attribute and finance attribute of grain, proposed that price was affected by a lot of factors, It was that cause fluctuations in grain prices. Part V was the partial equilibrium models of food prices under the framework of supply and demand of domestic.which established the equations of equilibrium of supply and demand through the analysis of a series of factors, and the partial equilibrium models of food prices through the simulation and calculation of the data, analysas the model results and proposed the corresponding suggestions. The sixth part was about the Food prices fuzzy regression model under policy attribute.which Clarified the specific process and method of fuzzy regression, established the model to simulate price fluctuation based on fuzzy theory.The seventh part was about the time sequence analysis model of food prices in financial property.which established two models to simulate price fluctuation considering four factors:the state of the global economy, international food prices.energy prices and RMB rate. The eighth part was about the prediction and time sequence comprehensive model of fuzzy data. Which performed causality relation tests between food prices and fluctuation factors firstly, conducted the prediction and analysis based on the time sequence comprehensive model of fuzzy data. The results show that the model had the very high accuracy prediction. The ninth part was the conclusion and discussion. Which summarized the whole thesis and pointed out the innovation and deficiency.
Based on the studying the literature review of domestic and abroad, this paper used one kind of the new visual angle and new method to study the relations between the influencing factors and food prices. These factors were divided into three categories, Based on the analysis of factors, Farmers could see the influence factors on the price in order to make the right decision. According to prediction of multiple models would maybe have a more accurate result, different models were established for fitting aimed at every kind of factor. Through the model simulation, scientific simulating mechanism of food prices could predict the development trend of food prices, and guide the government's macro-control simultaneously.
This paper had built many models in the process of influence factors of grain prices, Used multiple models such as partial equilibrium models, dynamic regression model to fit the grain price operation. Three kinds of attributes of grain was only a qualitative explanation in the previous study. Literature showed that the established models were usuaslly set in a certain field of those.This paper classified all the factors of food prices according to the nature and established the submodel one by one, Unified the comprehensive model of fuzzy data eventually. Considering the scale and comprehensive model, It was first originated. This paper bulit model using fuzzy mathematic modeling method for the first time. Many concepts with fuzzy characteristics in the economic field especially in the food prices field were suitable for this method. This paper introduced fuzzy regression and fuzzy time series analysis in the study of food prices, which was a bold innovation and provided a new way for the future research work in this field.
To sum up, the author hoped that through the topic research, it could formulate relevant agriculture macro policies for government, make production decisions for agricultural producers and provide proposal, reference and help for other related subject research.
引文
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