摘要
干旱是近年来频繁发生的世界性自然灾害现象，它已严重影响到自然生态环境的平衡及人类社会、经济的可待续发展。加强对干旱灾害的成灾机理及其调控措施的研究，充分发挥遥感和地理信息系统的综合技术优势，建立干旱遥感监测的土壤墒情预报模型及系统，具有重要的现实意义。
本文在系统分析当前国内外干旱遥感监测研究现状及其发展趋势的基础上，分析探讨了现有模型方法的优势与不足，论述了干旱的概念及性质特征，建立了新的基于热惯量方法且考虑植被影响的干旱遥感监测信息模型，并综合了遥感反演蒸散发量方法的优势，基于能量平衡原理提出了计算简化且实用的、以作物缺水指数为干旱监测指标的遥感信息模型。利用极轨气象卫星的遥感数字图像、气象数据和黑龙江省40个墒情站的数据对所建立的模型进行了计算和验证，并在GIS支持下给出了土壤含水量、蒸发量、旱情等级的空间分布图；通过分析土壤墒情预报的模型方法，本文建立了基于水量平衡的新安江模型预报方案和土壤墒情BP神经网络预报模型，并以黑龙江省为例进行了土壤墒情预报试验。结果表明，本文建立的干旱遥感监测模型及墒情预报模型对于区域性的干旱监测具有较好的实用性，可广泛应用于干旱的监测、评估及墒情预报工作中。
Drought, which occurred frequently all over the world in recent years, seriously threatens the balance of natural eco-environment, and has great influence on the sustainable development of mankind, society and economy. So, it is of great significance to study the mechanisms of drought and the countermeasures of drought control, to establish the drought monitoring models based on remote sensing and geographic information system which have unmatchable advantages in information collecting and processing, as well as to set up soil moisture prediction models.In this study, the current situation and development tendency of drought monitoring based on remote sensing and soil moisture prediction are analyzed; the advantages and shortages of the related models are discussed; the conception and characteristics of drought are addressed; the new drought remote sensing information models based on the principles of thermal inertia and on the consideration of vegetable cover is developed. By integrating the advantages of evapotranspiration remote sensing models and the crop water stress index, also the crop water stress models based on energy balance is also developed. The models are tested by meteorological satellite data, meteorological data and soil moisture data collected in Heilongjiang Province, and the paper produces the distributing maps of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration and drought classes by means of GIS. Meanwhile, the paper develops different soil moisture prediction models including Xin'anjing prediction model based on water balance and back propagation neural network model for soil moisture prediction. The paper predicts the soil moisture in Heilongjiang Province by these two models. The results show that the drought remote sensing monitoring models and soil moisture prediction models can be widely used in practical works for drought monitoring, evaluation and prediction.
引文
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