摘要
我国是一个旱灾频发的国家,干旱涉及广,持续时间长,其带来的在经济、工业、农业方面的影响很大,严重制约了社会经济的正常运行,因此对干旱承险脆弱性的综合研究,制定防灾减灾措施,提高抗旱减灾能力和管理水平,缓解研究区水资源供需矛盾,提高粮食综合生产能力具有重要作用和深远意义。
本文在查阅大量文献的基础上,主要做了以下的工作：提出干旱承险脆弱性的定义,从定义出发确定旱情评价和干旱承险脆弱性的指标体系,并建立了旱情评价模型和干旱承险脆弱性区划模型。
干旱承险脆弱性区划评价包括两个部分,其中一部分是致灾因子的危险程度。危险的程度本文用旱情的等级大小来表示。因此首先对要对研究区的旱情进行综合评价,统计出旱灾频率。将集对分析理论与方法应用于河南省旱情评价中,结合河南省的社会经济条件及水资源情况,综合考虑气象干旱、农业干旱、水文干旱、社会经济干旱四种干旱的类型,提出了河南省旱情评价的指标体系,建立了基于集对分析的旱情评价模型。对旱情评价的结果进行分析,评价结果与实际结果相符合。其二是评价地区本身的脆弱性,将旱情评价的结果进行频率统计应用于河南省承险脆弱性综合研究中,并结合河南省各地区自身脆弱性情况,提出了河南省承险脆弱性区划的指标体系。对资料进行统计分析确定了区划指标的评价标准,采用集对分析理论建立了河南省现状年干旱承险脆弱性区划模型。并对结果进行了分析,豫南豫东地区属于轻度脆弱区,豫西南、豫中地区属于中度脆弱区,豫西地区属于严重脆弱区,豫北地区属于极度脆弱区。评价结果与实际相符合。
在了解区域脆弱性和明确抗旱总体目标的前提下,针对河南省各地区不同的情况,因地制宜的提出相应工程与非工程措施,为抗旱减灾部门制定措施提供一定的依据。
Frequent drought always happens and lasts long in our country, it severely restricted normal running of the society, affecting economic industry as well as agriculture a lot. For this reason, it is of great important and far-reaching significance to do comprehensive research on drought bearing risks vulnerability. Through these works, measures to protect against drought would be designed; drought fighting ability and control level would be raised, the inequality of water supply and demand would be shorten to a to a great extent.
Assessment of drought bearing risks vulnerability consists of two parts:1) to evaluate the damage degree of hazard-formative factors; 2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the region. The damage degree is represented by grades of drought in this thesis. Therefore, drought comprehensive evaluation of researched area should be done firstly, and then frequency can be given. Based on the theory of set pair analysis, this paper put forward a set of drought evaluation index system of Henan and established a evaluation model in consideration of meteorological drought、agricultural drought、hydrological drought and social economic drought. Results analysis shows that the appraisal results with this model are quite close to the practical.
Statistical frequency of evaluation results by the model this thesis established is analyzed, and then it is applied to the comprehensive research on risk vulnerability of Henan. According to the characteristic of each area in Henan, this thesis established the regionalized index system to evaluate the drought bearing risks vulnerability. By analyzing statistic data, the regional evaluation standard is determined, and a regional evaluation model is built to assess the risk vulnerabilities in different areas in Henan. The evaluate results indicate that, the east and south area of Henan is mild fragile, the southwest and the middle areas of Henan is moderate fragile, the west area of Henan is severe fragile, and the north area is extremely fragile. This result is accord with the actual situation.
According to different situations, if both of the drought bearing risks vulnerability and the drought-resistant target are known in advance, this thesis can provide reference for relevant departments to formulate project measure and non-engineering measures that suit local circumstances to protect against drought.
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