摘要
水库大坝的安全是水工建筑物设计和管理的核心问题。溃坝水流的模拟和灾害评估,对防洪减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全等具有重要意义。本文以水力学,数理统计,灰关联度等理论为基础,构建了溃口水流数值模型,下游洪水演进数值模型以及溃坝灰关联度分析模型。主要研究内容与结论如下：
(1)溃口水流数值模拟
本文选取国际上通常采用的堰流公式,编写程序计算溃口流量过程线。溃口发展过程的机理十分复杂,因此对溃口形状及发展作了简化处理。建立了考虑上游来水,溢洪道泄洪等因素影响下的溃口水流数值模型。可用于库区调蓄作用下溃坝过程模拟。
(2)洪水演进数值模拟
根据河道洪水波的特点以及传播的规律,建立溃坝洪水演进二维数值模型,将溃口模型计算得到的坝址流量过程线作为边界条件代入计算中。模拟出溃坝洪水淹没情况,并分析下游河道的行洪能力。将模型应用于实际工程,分析卧虎山溃坝后下游玉符河的淹没情况。
(3)溃坝灰关联度与防洪评价分析
基于灰关联度理论,对溃坝的影响因素进行灰关联度分析,得到关联序列rR>rH>rhb,灰关联度分析结果与公式的描述基本一致,因此将灰色关联度理论运用于溃坝模型是可行的。入黄口段作为重点研究范围,对卧虎山下泄洪水与黄河洪水的遭遇概率进行分析,可量化黄河洪水对玉符河洪水的顶托作用。
Dam safety is the core of the problem in design and management of hydraulic structures. Dam-break model is of tremendous importance to the damage assessment, disaster control and reduction, and people protections. Based the theory of hydraulics, mathematical statistics and grey correlation degree, a numerical model is developed which includes three parts:dam-break water model; two dimension dam-break flood propagation route calculation and dam-break gray correlation analysis.
The main research content and conclusions:
(1) Dam-breach flow model
Selecting the international usually adopted weir flow formula, a calculating program is developed to simulate dam-breach flow process. The dam-break phenomenon is extremely complex, so reasonably simplified is desirable In this model, calculation of flood flow propagation integrates with regulation of reservoir volume and simulation of process of dam-break.
(2) Flood flow propagation model
According to the characteristics of the flood flow propagation,2D numeric model is developed. The former model calculation result is used as up-boundary condition. It is applied to predicting the result of dam-break flood flow and methods to reduce risk of the flood, and used to analysis the present flood carrying capacity of a river(such as Yufu River).
(3) Dam-break grey correlation degree and flood control evaluation analysis
Based the theory of grey correlation degree, a model is used to analysis the influence factors of dam failure. The correlation serial result is rB> rH>(?)bb,and this is s consistent with the descriptions in the formula. So applying grey correlation theory to dam-break is feasible. In addition, the flood control impact assessment of Yufu River is contained in this article.
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