摘要
全球变暖背景下,区域水分平衡、极端气候事件评估等成为研究热点。广东地处亚热带季风气候区,是我国多雨地区,但由于降水时空变率大,兼之太阳辐射强、气温高、蒸发量大、作物生长期长,区域性、季节性干旱时有发生。开展干旱动态监测及其影响定量评估研究,进一步加强干旱监测评估实时性和定量化水平,为政府部门开展人工降雨、防旱减灾、应对气候变化、调整种植区划和农业生产布局提供决策参考,对保障区域经济社会可持续发展、生态安全、粮食安全,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
根据最新的气象资料,采用相对湿润度指数MI,系统分析了广东干湿状况时空分布规律。广东总体较湿润,MI季节变化及空间分布特征与降水一致,春、秋季平均MI均呈纬向分布,但变化趋势相反。近50年来广东地表干湿状况总体呈缓慢暖干化趋势。
借鉴Palmer旱度模式中水分平衡概念,建立了逐日土壤水分平衡模拟模型,构建了面向广东干旱灾害实时动态监测的干旱指标体系,对模型参数进行敏感性分析,为在不同地区推广应用提供依据。该模型能够表达干旱发生发展过程丰富的细节及其时空变化特征,在区域干旱动态监测评估业务中应用效果良好。
依据《气象干旱等级》国家标准,结合广东实际,对降水量距平百分率、Z指数、标准化降水指数、相对湿润度指数、综合气象干旱指数、土壤相对湿度、地表温度日较差指数、植被供水指数及本研究提出的土壤水分平衡模拟模型9种干旱指标,从干旱频率统计特征、对干旱过程描述、空间分布特征这3个方面对比其性能特点,分析了不同指标在广东的适用性特点。综合分析认为,本研究提出的土壤水分平衡模拟模型指标体系应用效果良好,物理意义清晰,具有较好的业务推广应用价值。
依据土壤水分平衡模拟模型指标体系,分析了近45a来广东干旱时空分布特征,为开展干旱监测评估提供了可靠、完整的知识背景。定量分析了干旱过程强度指数DCI与干旱面积率关系,建立了干旱影响评估定量统计模型。
最后简要分析了广东省干旱灾害的主要成因,并提出防灾减灾对策。
In light of global warming,regional water balance and extreme climate events has become a hot issue.Favored by the monsoon humid climate of southern subtropical zone,Guangdong province have abundant resource of precipitation,however,parcel and seasonal drought occurs frequently due to distinct spatial-temporal variation of precipitation,plentiful radiation,high temperature,great evaporation and long growth stage.Dynamic monitoring and quantitative evaluation of drought provided reference for measures making for artificial rainfall,disaster prevention and reduction,dealing with climate change,exploitation and utilizing of climate resource and planting zoning adjustment.The study helps to safeguard social economic sustainable development, eco-security and food security;therefore,the study has significant meanings both scientifically and applicably.
Based on the latest climate data,using moisture index(MI),climate dryness/wetness status of Guangdong and its spatial-temporal distribution was analyzed systematically.It was humid.Seasonal and spatial variation and distribution was consistent with precipitation.Both in spring and autumn,MI spatially varied with latitude,but changing direction was opposite.Hotter and drier trend of climate was discovered in Guangdong province in recent 50 years.
Consulting concept of moisture balance in Palmer Drought Model,daily Soil-Moisture-Balance model was built up,and a set of drought index meeting dynamic monitoring of drought needs was put forward.Sensitivity analysis of model parameters was conducted which provided references when the model was popularized in different regions.It was able to describe formation,development as well as spatial-temporal variation of drought in detail;therefore,it was properly applied in regional dynamic monitoring and evaluation of drought.
According to national criterion of Meteorological Drought and actual status in Guangdong,comparison analysis of 9 drought index was carried out to validate applicability feature in Guangdong,considering 3 aspects—drought frequency, drought process description and spatial distribution.Results showed that the Soil-Moisture-Balance Model index system Which was presented in the study performs better,therefore,it was more valuable to popularize in operation.
Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of drought in Guangdong in recent 45 years were analyzed based on Soil-Moisture-Balance Model index system,which provided reliable and integrated information for drought monitoring and evaluation. Relationship between Drought Course Index and drought area proportion was quantitatively analyzed and a set of drought impact statistical model was built up.
Causes of drought in Guangdong were analyzed and countermeasures of disaster precaution and reduction were brought out finally.
引文
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