油菜生产智能决策支持系统的研究与建立
详细信息    本馆镜像全文|  推荐本文 |  |   获取CNKI官网全文
摘要
本文针对安徽油菜产业化过程中存在优质油菜与常规油菜混杂种植以及各项农业科技成果得不到及时有效转化等问题,利用中科院合肥智能机械研究所开发的雄风智能化专家系统开发平台AIP1.0,运用知识工程和信息技术原理,将油菜领域内的专家知识、经验和多年来的科研成果与计算机软件相结合,开发完成了安徽省优质油菜栽培管理智能决策支持系统。
    本系统的组织结构主要由知识库、数据库、模型库、人机界面、解释机构和推理机等部分组成,知识库与推理机相互独立,扩充性很强;模块化结构使系统扩充和完善更为便捷。与此同时,本系统将农业专家系统、决策支持系统与多媒体技术等综合集成,系统直观、形象、人机交互界面友好,且使用与操作简捷方便,易学易懂,能生动形象地普及先进科学知识,根据当地实际情况帮助分析推断,给出十分直观浅显而又非常科学合理的方案意见,以指导农民按照先进技术进行品种选择、科学施肥、防治病虫害、进行田间管理等。系统以Windows为应用平台,综合运用推理、预测、解释等机制,为用户实现优质油菜综合栽培管理咨询与决策服务。在功能上主要包括播前优化决策、产中栽培管理、产量预测和经济效益分析三大模块,实现了以下功能:
    (1)播前优化决策:系统主要依据区域种植要求、土壤类型、栽培方式等知识窗口的输入帮助推理选择适宜的品种;从种植地区、种植制度、栽培方式等知识窗口的输入帮助推测播期;从栽培方式、土壤肥力、移栽期等方面帮助确定密度,从目标产量、常年产量水平等方面帮助确定化肥的施用种类和施用量。
    (2)产中栽培管理:包括直播油菜栽培技术、移栽油菜栽培技术、油菜病、虫、草害综合诊治技术、油菜不良症状诊治、灌溉决策及新技术应用等。
    (3)产量预测与经济效益分析:依照系统进行油菜栽培管理,可从油菜生长发育不同时期的形态指标和栽培管理措施的应用情况预测产量;从人力投入、种子、农药、化肥、农机、油菜籽的产量及市场价格等分析总投入、总产出、纯利润。
    系统经过反复测试和应用,运行准确稳定,人机交互界面友好,可视化的操作简单易学,达到了设计的要求,与同类的专家决策支持系统相比,具有一定的优越性和明显的地方特色。
For solving the mixed-up problems in the production of both high quality and ordinary rapeseed in AnHui Province, this paper illustrates that the establishment and advantage of a new designed intelligent decision support expert system for the cultivation and administration of high quality rapeseed in the province . This system was designed with both the base of experts’ knowledge and years of experience in rapeseed production and computer soft ware ,and the reference to the XiongFeng Intelligent Expert System Developing Stage AIP 1.0, also the utilization of knowledge engineering and information technology.
    The organization and structure of this designed system includes six main pacts: knowledge base, data bank, model base, human computer interface, explanation unit, and reasoning unit. The knowledge base and reasoning unit are mutually independent and with considerably strong capacity of extension; the module structure enhances the system to be further extension and more perfect only by the extension and perfection of the specific module. Furthermore, this system, synthetically integrated with agricultural expert system, decision support system, as well as multimedia technology, is not only objective, imaginable, and friendly for human computer interface, but also simple to handle operate, easy to learn and understand. This system takes WINDOWS as its apply stage. Synthetical use of the mechanics of reasoning, prediction, and explanation is of meaning for serving and advising the customers to realize the decision of synthetical cultivation and administration of the super quality rapeseed. The function of this system possesses the following three modules:
    Qualifying decision prior to seeding
    This system is helpful to select proper rape variety with the condition of regional cropping system, soil type, and cultivation style, to determine right seeding time according to the cultivation region, cropping system and cultivation custom, to arrange suitable thickness referring to the cultivation method, soil fertilizer, and transplanting time, and to choose the favourable variety of fertilizer and decide adequate amount with the consideration of target yield and yearly rainfall.
    Cultivation and management while production
    These measures include the techniques for both direct and transplanting, rapeseed varieties, synthetical prevention diagnosis, and treatments for the damage of concerned insects, diseases and weeds, also for the physiological diseases. These measures involve the techniques of irrigation and management of super quality rapeseed varieties as well.
    Yield prediction and economical beneficial analysis
    These can be done by the calculation of the cost for labor, seeds, fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural machine, irrigation, etc., and the output of yield and market price, so as to have the understanding of total cost, total yield, and the net profit.
    
    This designed system, which has been checked and proved its precise and steady characters, its friendly relation of human computer interface, its visual and simple and easy for operating, achieves, its original design requirements, and is super and directed comparing to other systems related.
引文
中国科学院油料作物研究所. 油菜栽培技术. 北京:农业出版社,1979
    郑之宽. 安徽油菜. 中国农业出版社,2000
    刘后利. 实用油菜栽培学. 上海科学技术出版社,1987
    傅廷栋. 油菜生产研究的现状与展望. 中国优质油菜发展论坛文集,荆州,2002
    王汉中. 入世后的中国油菜产业. 中国优质油菜发展论坛文集,荆州,2002
    王银元. 发挥优势迎接挑战 大力推进优质油菜产业发展. 中国优质油菜发展论坛文集,荆州,2002
    傅廷栋. 中国油菜生产和品种改良的现状与前景. 安徽农学通报,2000,6(1):2~8
    官春云. 油菜生产情况与科研发展. 作物研究,2001(4):4~8
    黄秋云. 安徽省优质油菜产业化经营的现状与对策. 安徽农学通报,1999,5(4):47~49
    杨建群,杨枚修,周章来. 安徽省优质油菜生产现状、问题及发展对策的商榷. 安徽农学通报,1998,4(1):20~21
    周可金. 当前我国基层农业推广存在的问题与对策. 中国农学通报,2001,17(4):81~85
    赵德平. 安徽省油菜生产现状及发展对策. 安徽农业科学,1995,23(4):326~328
    郭卫勇,黄典平,周可金,等. 试论安徽省油菜发展现状与成就. 乡镇经济研究,1998(5):47~48
    易冬莲. 油菜生产现状及发展对策. 湖南农业科学,1998(5):47~48
    熊范纶著. 农业专家系统及开发工具. 清华大学出版社,1999.2
    熊范纶,胡海赢. 雄风专家系统开发工具. 清华大学出版社,1999年4月第一版
    高明亮,王雪珍,吴顺章. 农业专家系统存在的问题与对策. 洛阳农业高等专科学校,2001,21(2):88~89
    王宝金. 农业专家系统应用技术展望. 计算机与农业,2002(18):3~4
    王永庆,上官周平. 专家系统在农业生产管理中的应用. 微机发展,1995(1):3~6
    余益 专家系统及其在农业上的应用. 广西农业大学学报,1997,16(1):75~78
    刘晓燕 回顾与展望-专家系统在我国农业上应用情况概述. 计算机与农业,1997(1):1~3
    高亮之,金之庆. 作物模拟与栽培优化原理的结合-RCSODS. 作物杂志,1994,3:
    
    
    4
    高亮之,金之庆,黄耀,等. 水稻栽培计算机模拟优化决策系统. 北京:中国农业科技出版社,1992
    戚昌瀚,殷新佑. 作物生长模拟的研究进展. 作物杂志,1994,4:1~4
    谢云,James R Kiniry. 国外作物生长模型发展综述. 作物学报,2002,28(2):190~195
    F.彭宁德弗里斯等著,朱德峰等译. 几种一年生作物生长的生态生理过程模拟. 北京:中国农业出版社,1991
    梁振兴、刘兴海主编. 小麦产量形成的栽培技术原理. 北京:北京农业大学出版社,1994
    骆世明. 水稻高产栽培的计算机模拟研究. 山东农业大学学报,1992,23(增刊):87~94
    冯利平. 小麦生长发育模拟模型(WHEATSM).南京农业大学博士学位论文,1995
    刘世洪,周义校主编. 农业信息技术的回顾与展望. 北京:中国农业科技出版社,2000
    周义桃. 农业决策支持系统生成器的研究. 计算机农业应用,1994(3):5~12
    吕永成. 论农业决策支持系统发展战略. 决策与决策支持系统,1994,4(2):59~63
    曹永华. 农业决策支持系统研究综述. 中国农业气象,1997,18(4):46~50
    廖桂平,官春云,陈社员,等. 油菜栽培管理多媒体专家系统的设计与实现. 计算机与农业,2001(10):9~13
    廖桂平,官春云. 油菜优质高产高效栽培管理多媒体专家系统. 作物学报,2002,28(1):140~142
    廖桂平,官春云,吴泉源等. 油菜生产专家系统知识库构建. 作物学报,2002,28(3):118~122
    罗宽,周必文. 油菜病害及其治理. 北京:中国商业出版社,1994
    刘胜毅,马奇祥,周必文等. 油菜病虫草防治彩色图说. 北京:中国农业出版社,1998
    杨京平,王兆骞. 作物生长模拟模型及其应用. 应用生态学报,1999,10(4):501~502
    于振荣. 作物生长模拟模型的研究和应用. 生态学杂志,1994,13(1):69~73
    肖冬根,黄 璜,陈 光等. 农业专家系统中产量预测模型的研究. 作物研究,2001(3):11~13
    廖桂平,官春云. 湘农油571生长发育及产量形成与播种期关系的模拟分析. 湖
    
    
    南农业大学学报(自然科学版),2001,27(1):17~20
    郑元红. 毕节地区油菜施肥模型研究. 耕作与栽培,1999(6):61~62
    徐梅,刘振忠,辛惠普等. 春油菜菌核病流行强度的判别模型. 中国油料作物学报,1999(3):56~58
    刘振忠,徐梅,辛惠普等. 春油菜菌核病预测模型研究. 黑龙江八一农垦大学学报,1999,11(2):15~17
    谢立华,涂运昌,李金树. 氮肥和密度对三熟制油菜产量和氮素营养影响的数学模型. 土壤学报,1996,27(4):170~171
    常彭阳. 赣抚平原油菜菌核病发病程度预测模型. 江西农业学报,1999,11(4):51~54
    刘晓娜. 华杂3号油菜优化施肥模型的研究. 河南农业科学,1999(3):13~15
    王列富,刘晓娜. 华杂四号油菜高产施肥模型研究. 河南农业大学学报,2000,34(4):381~384
    刘晓娜,王列富,孙静静. 华杂四号油菜最佳施肥模型及经济效益分析. 信阳农业高等专科学校学报,2000,10(3):5~8
    杜全武,王昌明. 优质油菜中双4号高产栽培综合农艺措施数学模型研究. 作物研究,1997(1):25~28
    周刘昌,许复兴,赵春龙等. 油菜汇油50综合农艺措施产量函数模型研究初报. 上海农业学报,1995,11(1):91~96
    倪守延,承河元,陈高潮等. 油菜菌核病病斑扩展的动态模型. 生物数学学报,1994,9(5):81~85
    李廷俊,聂安全,杜震杰. 油菜综合高产栽培技术与产量函数模型初探. 山西农业科学,1994,22(2):28~31
    杨光伟,李崇辉,左臣媛. 油菜综合农艺措施数学模型及优化方法. 西南农业大学学报,1994,16(3):250~255
    周可金,孙维登,杨建群等. 杂交油菜高产栽培多因素组合数学模型的研究. 生物数学学报,1998,13(4):549~553
    李厚英,杨福华,肖再富. 杂交油菜蜀杂6号高产栽培措施模型初探. 耕作与栽培,1995(4):15~17
    陈曼玲,蒋立希,王炳炎等. 浙优油2号油菜高产栽培的数学模型及其优化方案. 浙江农业学报,1994(6):22~26
    Edwards D,Hamson M. Guide to Mathematical Modeling. Boca Raton,Florida, US:CRC Press,Inc, 1990.2
    Curry R B. Dynamic simulation of plant growth, I,Development of a
    
    
    model.ASAE Trans, 1971,14(5):946~959
    Sinclair T R, Seligman N G. Crop modeling;from infancy to maturity, Agronomy Joural, 1996,88:698~704
    Montieth J L. The quest for balance in modeling, Agronomy Joural,1996,88:695~697
    Duncan W G, et al.A Model for Simulation Photosynthesis in Plant Communities. Hilgardia, 1967, 38(4).
    J Gougriaan. A simple and fast numerical method for the computation of daily totals of crop photosynthesis. Agric.For.Meteorol, 1986,38:249~254
    Karin Wisiol, John D.Hesketh.Plant Growth Modeling for Resource Management.CRC Press, Inc:Boca Raton, Florida,1994
    H.Lal,J.W.Jones et al.(1992).FARMSYS-A Whole-Farm Machinery Management Decision Support System. Agricultural System, 38,257~273
    H.Montas and C.A.Madram ootoo.(1992).A Decision Support System for soil conservation planning. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,7,187~202