摘要
中亚国家独立后,美国对中亚的政策虽然几经调整,但是美国在对中亚的战略设计上却保持了一定的思维惯性,即控制欧亚大陆腹地的地缘战略思想;使中亚成为遏制俄罗斯、中国、伊朗等中亚周边大国的战略支点;以及运用军事、经济、政治三种手段推进对中亚国家的控制。而作为美国霸权扩张利器的军事手段在美国对中亚的渗透中发挥着关键性的作用。
中亚国家独立以来,美国中亚军事战略的演变经历了三个阶段:1、1992~1995年美国对中亚采取了“核不扩散战略”,以推进中亚的无核化;2、1996~2005年美国对中亚实施了“军事支点战略”;3、2006年至今(2008年)美国对俄罗斯拒止其进入中亚战区采取了“反拒入战略”。
在俄罗斯看来,美国在中亚的军事扩张对俄罗斯国家安全构成了现实挑战。俄罗斯在国力不断增强的背景下,面对美国中亚军事战略的步步进逼,将在中亚采取“反美军事渗透”政策,以掌控中亚地区的军事主导权,捍卫俄罗斯在中亚的战略利益。
中亚国家则从“战略平衡”的理念出发,对美国中亚军事战略总体采取了防范与合作的两面态度,以求最大程度地维护自身的国家利益。在90年代,中亚国家与美国的军事合作进展顺利。911事件后,中亚国家基于多方面考虑加快了与美国的军事合作步伐。而“颜色革命”后,中亚国家又普遍对美国中亚军事战略加强了防范。
对中国来讲,为防范美国中亚军事战略的发展,确保中亚这一中国战略大后方的邻接地区的军事安全,在近期的未来需要下好三盘棋:一是在多边层面,我们应积极利用上海合作组织扩大在中亚的军事政治影响力,根据欧亚地区安全形势的变化,在提升上合组织政治、经济合作功能的同时,适时深化上合组织的安全功能;二是在双边层面,我们要进一步深化与中亚国家的双边军事合作,继续向中亚国家提供武器装备、军事人员交流和培训,与中亚国家举行联合军事演习,逐步扩大在中亚的军事影响力;三是在单边层面,我们应不断提高自身的军事实力,尤其是我在西部地区设防的军事力量的信息化作战能力。
Since Central Asian countries became independent, the U.S. Central Asia policy has undergone several adjustments and changes, yet the strategic thinking of U.S. foreign policymakers in designing U.S. policy toward Central Asia remains unchanged. Such geo-strategic thinking still dominates their minds, as to control the heartland of Eurasia, to take Central Asia as the strategic pivot to contain Russia, China and Iran, and to strengthen control over the Central Asian countries by military, economic and political means. In the process of US’s infiltration to Central Asia, the military means continues to be considered as one of the most effective tools.
The U.S. military strategy toward Central Asia has undergone threestages: the first stage is from 1992 to 1995, the strategy of the nonproliferation and denuclearization had been adopted; the second stage from 1996 to 2005, the military pivot strategy had been undertaken; and the third stage from 2006 till now (2008), the“Anti-anti-access”strategy adopted in response to Russia’s opposition to its filtration into Central Asia.
For Russia, the U.S. military expansion to Central Asia poses a real threat to its national security. As its national strength rising, Russia adopted the“Anti-access”policy to confront the U.S. military infiltration, which was expected to help Russia gain military preponderance and to defend Russia’s strategic interest in the region. With“balance diplomacy”as the guideline, the Central Asian countries took a vigilant and cooperative attitude toward the U.S. Central Asia strategy. The 1990s witnessed smooth military cooperation between the U.S. and the Central Asia countries, which was even accelerated after 911. However, after the“Color Revolution”in 2005, Central Asian countries started to guard vigilantly over the US military strategy in the region.
As for China, three tasks call for attention in order to address the US military strategy in Central Asia and to maintain military security of the region. First, at the multilateral level, China should take Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a platform to strengthen its military and political influence in Central Asia. At the same time the functions of SCO on security should be redefined and stressed. Second, at the bilateral level, China should enhance its bilateral military cooperation with the Central Asian countries to expand its military influence by continuing the supply of military equipment, conducting military personnel exchanges and trainings, and holding joint military maneuvers. Third, at the national level, China should build up its military strength and improve its west-border military forces’capacity to win informationized warfare.
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