摘要
随着GDP的逐年增加,人们生活水平不断提高,消费者对食品安全和品质的要求也逐渐提高,进而带动了冷链物流的发展。为了对冷链的现状有一个更为准确的了解,验证冷链市场是否处于快速的发展之中,本文首先对当前的冷链物流市场进行了调研及分析,主要包括消费者关于冷链消费行为的调查、冷链终端销售商以及冷链相关物流企业的调研等内容。调查了解到约90%的消费者在购买冷链食品时,最看重剩余保质期和冷柜温度;约有70%的消费者愿意对冷链溢价支付10%-20%以保证食品质量和安全,冷链市场目前进入了一个快速发展的时期。
冷链在快速发展的同时,又迎来了世界低碳时代的到来。虽然冷链可以提高食品的安全性和新鲜度,但其对温度的控制又需消耗更多的能源,这与以“低碳”为主题的发展产生了一定矛盾。随着国际上实行碳交易以及开始征收碳税的环境下,将减少碳排放引入到整个供应链管理策略中,可以使企业降低成本。作为物流行业中耗能和碳排放最高的业务之一,如何让冷链适应经济发展的低碳要求,更好的进行权衡,是值得研究和思考的问题。
本文通过生命周期评估方法,对冷链的各个环节的碳排放系数进行了计算,并在易腐品基本库存模型的基础上引入了碳排放的变量,建立了包含碳排放的冷链库存模型,得到低碳目标下的最优库存策略。通过算例,对模型进行了验证,并讨论了考虑碳排放前后对冷链企业利润影响的因素的变化。对于不考虑碳排放成本的冷链企业来说,货物变质率和市场需求率对利润的影响因素最大并且相同,各因素每变动10%,利润的变化可达到22%;当考虑碳排放后,变质率比市场需求率对利润的影响变得更为明显,达到了27%,运输距离和存储环节碳排放系数对利润的影响相对较小;此外,随着碳排放价格升高,货物变质率降低,运输距离增加,存储环节能耗及碳排放系数减小以及运输环节能耗及碳排放系数增大,最优补货周期将逐渐增大。
最后,对考虑碳排放的多级冷链进行了仿真及优化,得到低碳目标下供应链及其各个成员的最优策略。对比了考虑碳排放成本前后的相关变化,分析了对供应链及供应链各个环节的最优策略的影响。
With the improvement of living standard, consumers’requirements of food safety and quality have been increasing, thus this contributes to the development of cold chain logistics. In order to understand the current situation of cold chain in China, the thesis analyzes the cold chain market through a market research firstly. It finds that cold chain has big market space and has entered a period of rapid development. And about 70% consumers are willing to pay a premium of 10%-20% for cold chain to ensure food safety and quality.
While the cold chain can improve food safety and freshness, temperature control needs extra energy which contradicts the theme of“low carbon”in the world today. As one of the businesses which have the highest energy consumption and carbon emission in logistics industry, it is very worth studying the question of how to make cold chain adapt to low carbon economy.
In the thesis, life cycle assessment method is used at first to calculate the carbon emission factors. Then, a cold chain inventory model considering the carbon emission factors is established and the optimal inventory policy with the objective of low carbon can be derived. The model is verified with a numerical example and parameters including price of carbon emission, product’s deterioration rate, and carbon emission factors, etc. are discussed.
Finally, through a simulation and optimization, multi-stage cold-chain with low-carbon objective has been studied. It compares the changes before and after considering the cost of carbon emission in the thesis and also analyzes the impact on the optimal policies of the supply chain.
引文
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